The WiiU doesn't need more games to attract more buyers at this stage. It has NSMBU, one of the top-5 biggest software draws among all games, and it's an exclusive. Anyone who doesn't have WiiU yet doesn't need more insentive to buy it. At least the people who are going to buy it between now and April don't need more insentive.

The economy may be slightly worse, but the size of the previous fanbase is absolutely relevant. 24m - 100m no comparison. Wii U launch should be 4x as big as Xbox 360, and it's merely twice.

Japan is a huge factor, it alone will end at 600,000+ units for WIi U, while it came in at 85,000 for Xbox360 in December 2005.

This means US demand is quite low for Wii U.

For last week (22nd):

Japan - 121,933

USA - 155,441

This is quite telling IMO.

The Wii created a whole new user base. It more or less created the "casuals", and that's nothing Wii U will be able to do again - not on the same scale. No one is expecting Wii U to relive the success of Wii, and besides, this has nothing to do with whether or not it will only sell 4m units by the end of March or more...

You're trailing away from the subject.

?

You compared the launch of the 360 with the Wii U, I rebutted your nonsense. And I'm the one off topic? lol

Japan cannot and will not carry the Wii U to 4m. 

Wii U best week in USA was Nov. 24. It's been 150k per week in USA throughout december. 

So your reasoning is that the US sales will drop so low that Wii U will not reach more than 4m? So for your prediction to come true US sales will hit 50k/week, EU 20k/week and Japan 50k/week - adding up to 120k/week...

The argument that WiiU will stop only at 600k in Japan does have some holes; the system will get more sellers that will push it to more than that.

250k (29th) - 100k USA 100k Japan 50k Europe

200k(5th) - 80k USA 80k Japan 40k Europe

Less and less each week after until Mid-February when it hit 105k per week. (45k USA 35k Japan 25k Europe).

I really don't see that argument.

By your logic the Wii had no chance of selling more than 21 million units.

well, going by both 360 and Wii's first ever week in January they both have increased sales - 360 even enjoyed a prolonged bump in sales in January before falling, so I'm sceptical about your January 5th prediction... Thus far all (previous) signs point at Wii U making 5m by March.