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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo profitable in 3rd quarter and year-end?

outlawauron on 04 January 2013
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....



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OceanJ on 04 January 2013

The reports of Jan 21 will tell the tale. I'm anxiously & nervously waiting.

I'm boggled at the current share-price.

Calculating Nintendo share value is a relatively simple thing to do. They sell a few pieces of hardware, and games. The sales of those things are readily publicly available.

If the public numbers are even close to being correct Nintendo shares are severely undervalued.

Conclusion: There has to be a heavy short-interest in Nintendo continually trying to drive down the stock.

Otherwise, can anyone come up with a legitimate Bear case against Nintendo given the sales figures we all have? Would greatly like to hear it.



ulieq on 04 January 2013
OceanJ said:
The reports of Jan 21 will tell the tale. I'm anxiously & nervously waiting.

I'm boggled at the current share-price.

Calculating Nintendo share value is a relatively simple thing to do. They sell a few pieces of hardware, and games. The sales of those things are readily publicly available.

If the public numbers are even close to being correct Nintendo shares are severely undervalued.

Conclusion: There has to be a heavy short-interest in Nintendo continually trying to drive down the stock.

Otherwise, can anyone come up with a legitimate Bear case against Nintendo given the sales figures we all have? Would greatly like to hear it.

*What you said.  Jan 22 will see a gap up to 20-30/share (where it should be).  By software alone, Nintendo is a buy.



Tarumon on 04 January 2013
outlawauron said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....

Below 90 hurtssome exporters.  Nintendo is not one of them.  They were able to generate profits from unit sales even at 77.  It's 88 and trending up, so for Nintendo at least, the built in windfall is already quite substantial.  Nintendo has two components: Gaming business and a disporportionately large stash of cash parked in Dollars and Euros.  90 or above will fatten up the margins for Nintendo, but just the fact that the USDYen has been climbing from the abyss of just 3 months ago will do wonders.

To put Nintendo's unique situation inperspective.  Nintendo generates about 60% of sales from Dollarss and Euros.  Company wide sales as of 9/30/12  201 billion yen......Company Cash 478 billion.  See that?  Even @ best of times margin of 50%, or now 20%, the gross margin of 60 billion or 24 billion multiplied by % change in YenFX is dwarfed by the sheer size of the Cash on hand.  Each yen to dollar or euro decline is a straight are free coin drops into Nintendo's coffer.  That's why I keep stressing, Nintendo is as solid a company as it gets and stands to profit from the triforce of 1. 3DS in money printing mode 2. Yen translation gains and 3. Wii and DS residual profits (high margins, low cost). Three profit pillars to prop up a 75% of Wii Sales Wii U?  

If you think Nintendo's marketing machine is being frugally run, their Investors relation even worse so.  Never see Nintendo trumpet themselves....but I guess when you don't need to borrow, have zero anticipation to raise more money from investors, you can afford to just act like you are really a private company minding your own business.



OceanJ on 04 January 2013
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....

Below 90 hurtssome exporters.  Nintendo is not one of them.  They were able to generate profits from unit sales even at 77.  It's 88 and trending up, so for Nintendo at least, the built in windfall is already quite substantial.  Nintendo has two components: Gaming business and a disporportionately large stash of cash parked in Dollars and Euros.  90 or above will fatten up the margins for Nintendo, but just the fact that the USDYen has been climbing from the abyss of just 3 months ago will do wonders.

To put Nintendo's unique situation inperspective.  Nintendo generates about 60% of sales from Dollarss and Euros.  Company wide sales as of 9/30/12  201 billion yen......Company Cash 478 billion.  See that?  Even @ best of times margin of 50%, or now 20%, the gross margin of 60 billion or 24 billion multiplied by % change in YenFX is dwarfed by the sheer size of the Cash on hand.  Each yen to dollar or euro decline is a straight are free coin drops into Nintendo's coffer.  That's why I keep stressing, Nintendo is as solid a company as it gets and stands to profit from the triforce of 1. 3DS in money printing mode 2. Yen translation gains and 3. Wii and DS residual profits (high margins, low cost). Three profit pillars to prop up a 75% of Wii Sales Wii U?  

If you think Nintendo's marketing machine is being frugally run, their Investors relation even worse so.  Never see Nintendo trumpet themselves....but I guess when you don't need to borrow, have zero anticipation to raise more money from investors, you can afford to just act like you are really a private company minding your own business.

Nintendo's Zero-Debt gives them full autonomy.  But I agree their investor relations is maddening.

Is there any way to tell if Insider Buying is happening at Nintendo?



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Tarumon on 04 January 2013

My mental image of majority Nintendo shareholders are a bunch of drybones like creatures sitting on a big pile of cash.  Original investors from when they were toymakers or whatever, still alive.  Any requests for budget increases? No.  Dividends or share buybacks? No.  Nin...ten...do...

Need about another ten years until the younger heirs takeover.  I'm sure they've waiting in the wings for about 90 years.



Vinniegambini on 04 January 2013
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....

Below 90 hurtssome exporters.  Nintendo is not one of them.  They were able to generate profits from unit sales even at 77.  It's 88 and trending up, so for Nintendo at least, the built in windfall is already quite substantial.  Nintendo has two components: Gaming business and a disporportionately large stash of cash parked in Dollars and Euros.  90 or above will fatten up the margins for Nintendo, but just the fact that the USDYen has been climbing from the abyss of just 3 months ago will do wonders.

To put Nintendo's unique situation inperspective.  Nintendo generates about 60% of sales from Dollarss and Euros.  Company wide sales as of 9/30/12  201 billion yen......Company Cash 478 billion.  See that?  Even @ best of times margin of 50%, or now 20%, the gross margin of 60 billion or 24 billion multiplied by % change in YenFX is dwarfed by the sheer size of the Cash on hand.  Each yen to dollar or euro decline is a straight are free coin drops into Nintendo's coffer.  That's why I keep stressing, Nintendo is as solid a company as it gets and stands to profit from the triforce of 1. 3DS in money printing mode 2. Yen translation gains and 3. Wii and DS residual profits (high margins, low cost). Three profit pillars to prop up a 75% of Wii Sales Wii U?  

If you think Nintendo's marketing machine is being frugally run, their Investors relation even worse so.  Never see Nintendo trumpet themselves....but I guess when you don't need to borrow, have zero anticipation to raise more money from investors, you can afford to just act like you are really a private company minding your own business.

Nintendo is very smart. Nintendo has over 2 billion in US and EUR respectively (It seems like the rest of it 5 billion US is in yen). Furthermore, Nintendo is technically doing an accounting loss each time the yen is not in their favour compared to an exchange loss. They are much more long term oriented as they know the yen fluctuates. Then, when the exchange rates are in their favour, they do their conversion rates. Nintendo is smart with money and this quarter, Nintendo will have a considerable exchange gain. My belief is that this will offset the loses incurred during the first and second quarter - which combined was 331 million.



OceanJ on 04 January 2013
Vinniegambini said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....

Below 90 hurtssome exporters.  Nintendo is not one of them.  They were able to generate profits from unit sales even at 77.  It's 88 and trending up, so for Nintendo at least, the built in windfall is already quite substantial.  Nintendo has two components: Gaming business and a disporportionately large stash of cash parked in Dollars and Euros.  90 or above will fatten up the margins for Nintendo, but just the fact that the USDYen has been climbing from the abyss of just 3 months ago will do wonders.

To put Nintendo's unique situation inperspective.  Nintendo generates about 60% of sales from Dollarss and Euros.  Company wide sales as of 9/30/12  201 billion yen......Company Cash 478 billion.  See that?  Even @ best of times margin of 50%, or now 20%, the gross margin of 60 billion or 24 billion multiplied by % change in YenFX is dwarfed by the sheer size of the Cash on hand.  Each yen to dollar or euro decline is a straight are free coin drops into Nintendo's coffer.  That's why I keep stressing, Nintendo is as solid a company as it gets and stands to profit from the triforce of 1. 3DS in money printing mode 2. Yen translation gains and 3. Wii and DS residual profits (high margins, low cost). Three profit pillars to prop up a 75% of Wii Sales Wii U?  

If you think Nintendo's marketing machine is being frugally run, their Investors relation even worse so.  Never see Nintendo trumpet themselves....but I guess when you don't need to borrow, have zero anticipation to raise more money from investors, you can afford to just act like you are really a private company minding your own business.

Nintendo is very smart. Nintendo has over 2 billion in US and EUR respectively (It seems like the rest of it 5 billion US is in yen). Furthermore, Nintendo is technically doing an accounting loss each time the yen is not in their favour compared to an exchange loss. They are much more long term oriented as they know the yen fluctuates. Then, when the exchange rates are in their favour, they do their conversion rates. Nintendo is smart with money and this quarter, Nintendo will have a considerable exchange gain. My belief is that this will offset the loses incurred during the first and second quarter - which combined was 331 million.

Wow that would be amazing.  If they offset the 331 M this quarter, that sets up for a stronger than Y 6 Billion Yen annual profit, beating projections.  

Was Nintendo being overly cautious & pessimistic with the 70% profit projection cut a few months ago, from Y 20 billion to Y 6 Billion?  I think so.  I think the final number comes in somewhere in the middle.

The question isn't whether Nintendo will be profitable in Q3, or for the Fiscal Year.  I think it's pretty obvious at this point they will be.  The question is how will investors react when they see Nintendo's profitable again?

Will the stock pop or stay flat?  It seems as though there's more than a profitability factor being priced into the stock.  From a pure Investor standpoint three headwinds are keeping shares down. 1) Belief that iOS & Android gaming are stealing profits & market-share from Nintendo at an increasing clip 2) The Wii U is not selling to Investor expectations and the next Microsoft & Sony systems will hurt sales further 3) The emergence of Free-To-Play  on systems such as the Ouya & Steam are yet another competitor taking Nintendo's traditional market-share.

This seems to be the Bear case...and if shares aren't being held down right now artificially by Short Sellers...and Q3 & Fiscal 2012 profits are pretty much known, then those profits are being valued into current prices and concern over the above 3 points is still covering the shares with cloudy gloom.



Vinniegambini on 04 January 2013
OceanJ said:
Vinniegambini said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....

Below 90 hurtssome exporters.  Nintendo is not one of them.  They were able to generate profits from unit sales even at 77.  It's 88 and trending up, so for Nintendo at least, the built in windfall is already quite substantial.  Nintendo has two components: Gaming business and a disporportionately large stash of cash parked in Dollars and Euros.  90 or above will fatten up the margins for Nintendo, but just the fact that the USDYen has been climbing from the abyss of just 3 months ago will do wonders.

To put Nintendo's unique situation inperspective.  Nintendo generates about 60% of sales from Dollarss and Euros.  Company wide sales as of 9/30/12  201 billion yen......Company Cash 478 billion.  See that?  Even @ best of times margin of 50%, or now 20%, the gross margin of 60 billion or 24 billion multiplied by % change in YenFX is dwarfed by the sheer size of the Cash on hand.  Each yen to dollar or euro decline is a straight are free coin drops into Nintendo's coffer.  That's why I keep stressing, Nintendo is as solid a company as it gets and stands to profit from the triforce of 1. 3DS in money printing mode 2. Yen translation gains and 3. Wii and DS residual profits (high margins, low cost). Three profit pillars to prop up a 75% of Wii Sales Wii U?  

If you think Nintendo's marketing machine is being frugally run, their Investors relation even worse so.  Never see Nintendo trumpet themselves....but I guess when you don't need to borrow, have zero anticipation to raise more money from investors, you can afford to just act like you are really a private company minding your own business.

Nintendo is very smart. Nintendo has over 2 billion in US and EUR respectively (It seems like the rest of it 5 billion US is in yen). Furthermore, Nintendo is technically doing an accounting loss each time the yen is not in their favour compared to an exchange loss. They are much more long term oriented as they know the yen fluctuates. Then, when the exchange rates are in their favour, they do their conversion rates. Nintendo is smart with money and this quarter, Nintendo will have a considerable exchange gain. My belief is that this will offset the loses incurred during the first and second quarter - which combined was 331 million.

Wow that would be amazing.  If they offset the 331 M this quarter, that sets up for a stronger than Y 6 Billion Yen annual profit, beating projections.  

Was Nintendo being overly cautious & pessimistic with the 70% profit projection cut a few months ago, from Y 20 billion to Y 6 Billion?  I think so.  I think the final number comes in somewhere in the middle.

The question isn't whether Nintendo will be profitable in Q3, or for the Fiscal Year.  I think it's pretty obvious at this point they will be.  The question is how will investors react when they see Nintendo's profitable again?

Will the stock pop or stay flat?  It seems as though there's more than a profitability factor being priced into the stock.  From a pure Investor standpoint three headwinds are keeping shares down. 1) Belief that iOS & Android gaming are stealing profits & market-share from Nintendo at an increasing clip 2) The Wii U is not selling to Investor expectations and the next Microsoft & Sony systems will hurt sales further 3) The emergence of Free-To-Play  on systems such as the Ouya & Steam are yet another competitor taking Nintendo's traditional market-share.

This seems to be the Bear case...and if shares aren't being held down right now artificially by Short Sellers...and Q3 & Fiscal 2012 profits are pretty much known, then those profits are being valued into current prices and concern over the above 3 points is still covering the shares with cloudy gloom.

Nintendo is currently trading at book value, based on what cash reserves it has. The stock does not even consider the value of their franchises (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Kirby). Right now the stock is stuck as investors are waiting for a more positive sign, Q3 should light up the shares to atleast levels of over 14$ based on profitability alone.

Remember, last year Nintendo claimed to be profitable for the fiscal year of 2012 only to be told in Q3 that they will suffer a 500 million loss; hence, you can see why investors are on edge as they are scared for the pattern. I don't think the outlook for the stock is bearish in 2013 but short term until positive news comes fruit to bear, yes.



OceanJ on 04 January 2013
Vinniegambini said:
OceanJ said:
Vinniegambini said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
Tarumon said:
outlawauron said:
OceanJ said:
outlawauron said:
Vinniegambini said:

current exchange rates are favourable.

As someone who imports a good bit, the exchange rates are still horrible. Nintendo and Sony will continue to lose millions because of it.

Huh?  The weaker the Yen, the more profits Sony / Nintendo make overseas...which is the bulk of their sales.

That means they make more money.

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.


Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

But it's still below 90....

Below 90 hurtssome exporters.  Nintendo is not one of them.  They were able to generate profits from unit sales even at 77.  It's 88 and trending up, so for Nintendo at least, the built in windfall is already quite substantial.  Nintendo has two components: Gaming business and a disporportionately large stash of cash parked in Dollars and Euros.  90 or above will fatten up the margins for Nintendo, but just the fact that the USDYen has been climbing from the abyss of just 3 months ago will do wonders.

To put Nintendo's unique situation inperspective.  Nintendo generates about 60% of sales from Dollarss and Euros.  Company wide sales as of 9/30/12  201 billion yen......Company Cash 478 billion.  See that?  Even @ best of times margin of 50%, or now 20%, the gross margin of 60 billion or 24 billion multiplied by % change in YenFX is dwarfed by the sheer size of the Cash on hand.  Each yen to dollar or euro decline is a straight are free coin drops into Nintendo's coffer.  That's why I keep stressing, Nintendo is as solid a company as it gets and stands to profit from the triforce of 1. 3DS in money printing mode 2. Yen translation gains and 3. Wii and DS residual profits (high margins, low cost). Three profit pillars to prop up a 75% of Wii Sales Wii U?  

If you think Nintendo's marketing machine is being frugally run, their Investors relation even worse so.  Never see Nintendo trumpet themselves....but I guess when you don't need to borrow, have zero anticipation to raise more money from investors, you can afford to just act like you are really a private company minding your own business.

Nintendo is very smart. Nintendo has over 2 billion in US and EUR respectively (It seems like the rest of it 5 billion US is in yen). Furthermore, Nintendo is technically doing an accounting loss each time the yen is not in their favour compared to an exchange loss. They are much more long term oriented as they know the yen fluctuates. Then, when the exchange rates are in their favour, they do their conversion rates. Nintendo is smart with money and this quarter, Nintendo will have a considerable exchange gain. My belief is that this will offset the loses incurred during the first and second quarter - which combined was 331 million.

Wow that would be amazing.  If they offset the 331 M this quarter, that sets up for a stronger than Y 6 Billion Yen annual profit, beating projections.  

Was Nintendo being overly cautious & pessimistic with the 70% profit projection cut a few months ago, from Y 20 billion to Y 6 Billion?  I think so.  I think the final number comes in somewhere in the middle.

The question isn't whether Nintendo will be profitable in Q3, or for the Fiscal Year.  I think it's pretty obvious at this point they will be.  The question is how will investors react when they see Nintendo's profitable again?

Will the stock pop or stay flat?  It seems as though there's more than a profitability factor being priced into the stock.  From a pure Investor standpoint three headwinds are keeping shares down. 1) Belief that iOS & Android gaming are stealing profits & market-share from Nintendo at an increasing clip 2) The Wii U is not selling to Investor expectations and the next Microsoft & Sony systems will hurt sales further 3) The emergence of Free-To-Play  on systems such as the Ouya & Steam are yet another competitor taking Nintendo's traditional market-share.

This seems to be the Bear case...and if shares aren't being held down right now artificially by Short Sellers...and Q3 & Fiscal 2012 profits are pretty much known, then those profits are being valued into current prices and concern over the above 3 points is still covering the shares with cloudy gloom.

Nintendo is currently trading at book value, based on what cash reserves it has. The stock does not even consider the value of their franchises (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Kirby). Right now the stock is stuck as investors are waiting for a more positive sign, Q3 should light up the shares to atleast levels of over 14$ based on profitability alone.

Remember, last year Nintendo claimed to be profitable for the fiscal year of 2012 only to be told in Q3 that they will suffer a 500 million loss; hence, you can see why investors are on edge as they are scared for the pattern. I don't think the outlook for the stock is bearish in 2013 but short term until positive news comes fruit to bear, yes.

I hope you're right and agree a profitable quarter will be a catalyst.  It's just the main differences between then and now are commonly known:

  • A year ago the 3DS was selling at a loss, now it's sold for a profit, is up in units sold YoY, with game sales proliferating...printing money mode
  • A year ago the exchange rate was less favorable for Nintendo, now investors should be able to estimate the extra Yen profit from current rates.
  • A year ago Wii U wasn't on the market, now it's sold 2.48 million + 4.5 million games at retail + an unknown amount of E-Shop games

Are investors still scared of a downside surprise pattern with these facts staring them down?  I could be wrong, but I just can't see investors doing that.  But hey I'm just an amateur, if you're right it only bolsters the case for picking up shares right now.