Last year, contrary to popular opinion, from October to December of 2011, Nintendo posted profits of 250 million and doing so without the 3DS being profitable. Now, 3rd quarter has officially passed and whether Nintendo is profitable will be announced January 25th.

I believe Nintendo will be profitable this quarter as well. The 3DS hardware is no longer being sold at a loss and current exchange rates are favourable.

As a result, third quarter profitabily should offset the loses incured during the first two quarters (331 million). Nonetheless, I'm still a bit on edge though for the remainder of the fiscal year ending in March 2013 (see below):

Pros:

- Nintendo predicted 50.5 million Wii software sales by March 2013 - Sold over 55 million software sold as of December 22, 2012 according to VGChartz data

- Nintendo predicted 37 million DS software sales by March 2013 - Sold over 38 million software sold as of December 22, 2012 according to VGChartz data

- Nintendo predicted 2.5 million DS hardware sales by March 2013 - Sold 2.5 hardware sold as of December 22, 2012 according to VGChartz data

- Growth in 3DS (Thanks in large part to Japan)

Cons:

- Will not be able to achieve it's projected 5 million Wii hardware sales - 3.1 million as of December 22, 2012 according to VGChartz data

(will be revised to 4)

- Will not be able to achieve it's projected 17 million 3DS hardware sales - 10.5 million as of December 22, 2012 according to VGChartz data

(will be revised to 15)

- Will not be able to achieve it's projected 5.5 million Wii U hardware sales - 2.2 million as of December 22, 2012 according to VGChartz data

(will be revised to 4.5-5)

Though Nintendo will not reach most of its year-end targets, the current exchange rates of 87 US and 115 EUR will hopefully offer them the breathing space needed to be profitable. Just to put it in perspective, Toyota said that for each 1 yen US difference they either lose or gain 350 million.

What do you guys think of Nintendo's 2013 prospects? Are they positive and will they be profitable? I'd like to hear your thoughts.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

so software is doing better than expected, hardware is doing worse than expected with the exception of the DS

I'm not really a sales prediction person and with regards Nintendo, it seem as of late they seem to over predict how much they expect to sell especially with regards hardware.

In any event, I think Nintendo has some great games to release between now and end of March 2013, that will boost hardware sales, like: Pikmin 3, Wii Fit U, and MH3U, just to name a few. I actually think Nintendo has too many good games to release be tween now and end of March 2013, so some games might get pushed back and thereby might affect sales numbers.

The dropping yen and the 3DS not being sold at a loss should allow them to profit on those two factors alone, if they can't, something is seriously wrong.

I'd expect a decent sized profit, especially with the new Japanese government allowing the yen to drop.

I think they will miss their Wii U sales target of 5.5 million shipments though. 

Nintendo was really predicting some high numbers for their HW. I wonder what made them think that they were in reach?

I think they will be profitable next year, mostly because the 3DS is selling so well (even if they won't reach their mark).

I thought the Wii U could reach the 5.5m mark but if the current sales trend continues they will miss it (maybe only by a small margin though). 

I don't think Sony will profit (PS3 is down, PSP is down, PS2 is down, PSVita is a flop, the Yen is strong, US holiday sales dropped, Japan is back in a recession, etc etc), but Nintendo's margins should also be helped a bit by having major titles available online now.

My guess is:

Wii U software is below expectations by about 10-20% in the West...unless online sales are very good.

Wii software is about at expectations, hardware probably about right too (2-3m holiday quarter, holiday quarter = 1/2 the fiscal year)

DS software is about at expectations, hardware about right.

Wii U hardware is probably below expectations in the US and a bit above in Japan, with Europe getting screwed in the process..probably a bit lower than expected overall, say 10%.

It looks like 2013 will set up for a very strong Nintendo year in Japan - 3DS at 6m could happen, and Wii U will probably do like 2-3m. PS3 & PSP will be down to well under 1m, with Wii hanging around at maybe two hundred thousand too.

It will be interesting to see how the Wii U tracks during January. I want to see how it moves during a non-holiday period now that the faithful mostly have theirs. That will give us some idea of how the general public feels about it.

Software will likely plummet, dragging down that Christmas rate quite a bit. When is the next big title for the Wii U? February? Last I looked, the schedule seemed pretty bare for the first part of the year.

R&D i suspect would still be an ongoing cost.

I think Wii U is in big trouble for 2013 and will find itself in a post-launch lull much like the 3DS did after it launched, which will force Nintendo to drop by $50 by E3 time or so.

It's the most expensive console on the market, it has the fewest games, it's not getting any of the big third party games for 1st half 2013 (GTA, BioShock, DmC, MGS Rising, etc.), and there doesn't appear to be any of the "big gun" Nintendo IP coming for the 1st half this year either -- no 3D Mario, Mario Kart, DKC, or Zelda on the horizon until fall 2013 at the earliest probably.

My feeling is Wii FIt U is not going to do much either ... that's an idea that had it's time in the sun a few years ago, much like Brian Training and Nintendogs didn't do much for the 3DS. People aren't going to pay $350 to play Wii Fit again. 

I think they're in trouble especially at that price point. PS3/360 are going to eat their lunch and then attention is probably going to start to shift to the 720/PS4 at E3.