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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Official 2013 Console sales prediction thread- It's Nearly Over!

DanneSandin said:
daaaamn I meant to adjust my predictions!! :-O Oh well...

Just for the record: I have predicted way to high numbers for PS360U!

PS3: 6-8m
360: 5-7m
Wii U: 7-10m

I have a feeling everyone may have done. I'm just trying to extract the averages, the highest and lowest and the "fun facts" out of this data. So I wouldn't feel too left out!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Conegamer said:
DanneSandin said:
daaaamn I meant to adjust my predictions!! :-O Oh well...

Just for the record: I have predicted way to high numbers for PS360U!

PS3: 6-8m
360: 5-7m
Wii U: 7-10m

I have a feeling everyone may have done. I'm just trying to extract the averages, the highest and lowest and the "fun facts" out of this data. So I wouldn't feel too left out!

Yeah, I went back to last years predictions, and they were all way too high. I was going to adjust my numbers, but never got around to it...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:
Conegamer said:
DanneSandin said:
daaaamn I meant to adjust my predictions!! :-O Oh well...

Just for the record: I have predicted way to high numbers for PS360U!

PS3: 6-8m
360: 5-7m
Wii U: 7-10m

I have a feeling everyone may have done. I'm just trying to extract the averages, the highest and lowest and the "fun facts" out of this data. So I wouldn't feel too left out!

Yeah, I went back to last years predictions, and they were all way too high. I was going to adjust my numbers, but never got around to it...

Hmm, that's a tad unfortunate. But aside from your Wii U prediction the rest don't seem all that bad, so who knows!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
DanneSandin said:
Conegamer said:
DanneSandin said:
daaaamn I meant to adjust my predictions!! :-O Oh well...

Just for the record: I have predicted way to high numbers for PS360U!

PS3: 6-8m
360: 5-7m
Wii U: 7-10m

I have a feeling everyone may have done. I'm just trying to extract the averages, the highest and lowest and the "fun facts" out of this data. So I wouldn't feel too left out!

Yeah, I went back to last years predictions, and they were all way too high. I was going to adjust my numbers, but never got around to it...

Hmm, that's a tad unfortunate. But aside from your Wii U prediction the rest don't seem all that bad, so who knows!

I'm mostly disappointed with my Wii U prediction and PS360... I don't think PS360 will sell that much, and my Wii U prediction was made before all the adjustments - so at the time I more or less simply doubled the 360's original launch year numbers... But seeing how bad Wii U is doing now... It should be lucky to reach the 360's levels!!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

I believed the Wii U would have followed the 3DS trend in its first year, so I was pretty confident it'd exceed 10 millions by the end of the year.
But seeing the weekly numbers, I'm starting to change my mind...



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So the OP is now updated with averages. In addition, the table is now in alphabetical order. 

 

Notes:

 

  • There are 76 participants, of whom 15 predicted the PS3 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • This compares to only 2 users who predicted the 360 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • However, 32 users predicted the WiiU to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • Only 4 users believe the Wii will sell over 4 million units this year.
  • The highest 3DS prediction is 28 million units; the same as its current LTD. 
  • 4 users predict the 3DS to sell more than 20 million units this year, with no users predicting below 10 million for the year.
  • Contrast this to the highest prediction of the Vita, which is below 9.5 million (the next highest is 8.5 million below this). So, Vita's absolute best-case is the 3DS' absolute worst-case.
  • 26 people predicted PS4 sales for the year, compared to 46 for the 720. So more people believe the 720 will arrive this year than the PS4.
  • The difference between the highest and the lowest Wii U prediction is 10.6 million, more than the highest 360 prediction
  • On average, people predicted the 3DS to outsell the Vita by 3:1. However, the most extreme example is 14:1.
  • The lowest complete set of data with all console totals added together comes to less than the Wii+DS in 2007, 2009, and is 10 million lower than in 2008.
  • Indeed, the average total sales for each person is less than 1 million above the Wii+DS in 2008.
Averages (with YoY predictions):

PS3- 9.40 (-18%)

360- 7.67 (-22%)

Wii- 2.64 (-46%)

Wii U- 9.30 (+413%)

3DS-15.66 (+12%)

PSV-5.60 (+62%)

DS-1.93 (-44%)

PSP-1.43 (-51%)

 

Total-55.92 (+7%)



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Interesting averages compared to weekly sales, PS3 at 33%+ down 360 40%+. So without anything significant just these 2 would be around 7.5m and 5.9m. I am assuming everyone predicted that a pricecut and GTA5 and other software support would keep it from getting that bad.

Wii predictions seem fine, Wii U too high but who knows with a new console. 3DS fine. PSV wildcard or pricecut.



Farsala said:
Interesting averages compared to weekly sales, PS3 at 33%+ down 360 40%+. So without anything significant just these 2 would be around 7.5m and 5.9m. I am assuming everyone predicted that a pricecut and GTA5 and other software support would keep it from getting that bad.

Wii predictions seem fine, Wii U too high but who knows with a new console. 3DS fine. PSV wildcard or pricecut.

I guess so. Some people had some silly predictions though; like the PS360 being up YoY. That obviously skews the average. I also don't think people expected things to be quite THIS bad when the predictions were made...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
Farsala said:
Interesting averages compared to weekly sales, PS3 at 33%+ down 360 40%+. So without anything significant just these 2 would be around 7.5m and 5.9m. I am assuming everyone predicted that a pricecut and GTA5 and other software support would keep it from getting that bad.

Wii predictions seem fine, Wii U too high but who knows with a new console. 3DS fine. PSV wildcard or pricecut.

I guess so. Some people had some silly predictions though; like the PS360 being up YoY. That obviously skews the average. I also don't think people expected things to be quite THIS bad when the predictions were made...

Yeah Outliers really do affect the average a lot. Without the 20m+ predictions with 3DS average would go down a million or two lol. Hard time to predict, but I would still keep my predictions except for Wii U and vita a little lower.



PS3: 10m
360: 7.5m
Wii U: 8.5-9.5m (depending on the other next gen consoles release and Windwaker HD release)
PS4: 1.8m
720: 2m
3DS: 16m
Vita: 3m
DS: 3m
PSP 1.9m
Wii:2.5m

Edit: I missed the update in the OP. Whatever, I'll just keep this here as my own record of what I predicted



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