post deleted: spambot - kantor
This should happen for every Spambot. Aww.
20% SW difference while only 5% HW difference. A thought could be that 360 games get discounted more then PS3 games for christmas week. I think PS3 will prably be overtracked in HW for the month though, come NPD.
360 sells a lot more relatively in USA than PS3 does, and people in USA buy more games on average.
It did launch last year.
You got me there :D
@Yak - So you didn't answer my question. With that, I'm satisfied that you agree with me even though you don't want to admit it. I'll move on to other discussions. And no, I didn't say it had to be 50%, and that's my fundamental point. I said go with 10% even. But you are going with 1% and that's silly. What I have said is actually that Nintendo will easily sell 1-2 million WiiU's in Europe without trying as long as they are available to be purchased. It's not a totally random number, it's what Nintendo projected by end March and what they are on pace to sell. I believe until they hit that point (at least) it's a supply-constraint. I'm actually only saying minimum 4.6% of Wii buyers are without-a-doubt anxious to buy a WiiU. I think that's a very, very low expectation from a brand retention level. Keep following, you'll see it is the case.
If you read my post you'd see I did answer your question. I simply didn't agree with your ridiculous assessments you pinned to either answer. Do you just not understand that supply can exceed demand? You seem to think if there is any demand for a product then it is automatically supply constrained. You do this despite copious evidence to the contrary. If you believe so strongly that the Wii U is supply constrained in Europe, why don't you buy up these ones that are available (for reduced prices even!) and sell them? Surely if demand is exceeding supply you could make a tidy profit.
Also your numbers are all over the place.
minimum 4.6% (1.5 million) How the minimum is above the minimum in your previous range, I don't know.
5-10 million worldwide
I mean if you're going to claim something is supply constrained purely based on a sell-through number without any other evidence, then the least you could do is pin it down. So tell me, at what point between 1 million and 16.2 million will the Wii U magically stop being supply constrained? You did suggest that saying only 50% of Wii owners wanting a Wii U was bashing it, and based on your question earlier if somebody wants something they either buy it immediately or it is supply constrained. Therefore I guess we'll have to listen to these supply constraint claims till at least 2015. Actually considering after 4 weeks it is only at 59% of Wii sales maybe we are looking at 2017.
Let's break down one of your claims. You say Nintendo will easily sell 1-2 million Wii U's by the end of March, and that is what they projected. First of all Nintendo didn't project a range as far as I'm aware, and certainly not one so large. One million and two million are very far apart when we are talking about a launch. Since you are continuing with this supply constraint claim, Nintendo would have known months ago exactly how much it would sell in Europe since regional distribution of supply doesn't change at the drop of a hat.
So with that piece out of the way, lets look at the actual numbers. 1-2 million. The Wii shipped 1.47 million to Other by March 31, 2007, and sold 1.41 million in Europe per VGC in the same time period. Now we know after 4 weeks in Europe the Wii U is only at 59% of Wii sales. That would suggest 833k by the end of March. Now if we are incredibly generous we can say the Wii U will end the year at 500k. That would mean in order to hit the top end of your prediction (2 million), the Wii U would need to more than double the Wii performance from the same quarter in 2007. Does this in anyway seem realistic to you? That would require average weekly sales of 115k. A number the Wii U has only exceeded on launch day. Even to hit the low end of 1 million would require average weekly sales of 40k. If we use last weeks sales as a point of reference. If the PS3 saw a similar dip for Jan-Mar it would sell 2.4 million in Europe for the quarter. Even the Wii only averaged 55k a week during that period in 2007, and that was a system that sold 155k in the week prior to Christmas. More than double what the Wii U did.
Looking beyond all these figures, just tell me one thing. If the Wii U is supply constrained in Europe, why can I go on Amazon France/Germany/Italy/Spain and order one right now for a reduced price? Why aren't the people who supposedly want a Wii U doing that?
Retail Software down 15m yoy. 15m less in just one week!!!
Don't forget, though, that this week last year included all the last seven days before Xmas, while this year it includes five of them and the last two are in the successive week.