Oh...so many crazy posts in here...
I second that. One billion times. ;)
I'm not even going to try to straighten out this mess that is this thread. But as always, discussions are great, and since everyone is staying in line (for the most part), it's all good. I just want to touch up on a few things, and possibly some "misconceptions" that seem to be thrown around too much. Where to even begin?
@dtewi: Since I think the PS3 is a bit ahead of it's time (if not by like 2 years), especially for a console, it is possible that it could last 10 years. It's even possible that it might expand over the 8th generation and last until the 9th, since Nintendo will probably release a system in 6ish more years (roughly Nov. 2013), and at that time, a lot of people say (though I don't know how true this would be) Nintendo could release a system slightly more powerful than the PS3. Someone said in this thread that the next Xbox would unlikely be more powerful than the PS3 (CPU wise), so i don't know how powerful the Wii2 will be. Depending on the power of the Wii2, and what Sony wants to do, there might not be a reason to release anonther system. If they do, but don't make it as advanced as the PS3 (as in advance for 2013, like how the PS3 is advanced for 2007), then it won't be much of a step up. Might as well stay with the PS3. If they wish to release another powerful console, they might, but since that hasn't worked so well, up to this point, I doubt they'll go that route. As such, depending on technology and other unforseeable things, the PS4 could possibly be part of the 9th gen. Too many ifs to really know. But you're probably right, and as such Sony will find itself in a interesting position. Stick with (perhaps) a system that has reached it's potential, saleswise and performance wise, release a relatively small "upgrade" PS4 (otherwise known as the PlayStation 3.5), or go the same route with the PS4 as they did the PS3, and hope the results are different? Decisions decisions.
@all (and fooflexible, since you brought it up): It's important to remember that usually once a system starts winning, there's not much that can be done. Also, after my analysis (see my sig), that the last generation consoles that lost, none of them had a year over year increase that is worth mentioning. The Xbox and GC both hovered at their launch year sales for the 2nd and 3rd year, before falling, and ultimately sold 99% of lifetime sales in their first 5 years. The PS2, on the other hand, sold only 75% of lifetime sales in it's first 5 years. The 360 saw a 37% increase in it's second year, which is a very decent increase (compare that to PS2 second year increase of 40%, and of course the actual numbers are bigger for the PS2 since it sold more in it's first year. Overall, the first three years are the most important, since that's when you really need to increase sales, year over year. After the third, sales start to decrease. So yes, the 360 is in it's third year, meaning if it only sells another 11 million, which is an increase from 8 million in it's second year, that's only 26 million, at the height of it's life. From there, it just goes downhill. Period.
@Garcian Smit: Too true about the games thing. [insert game here] will not save [insert system here]. Period. The end. A ton of great and ok games will definitely help a system, no doubt. But in the end, price point, available games (as of today, not games that are going to be released, which includes SSBB, Mario Kart, FFVIII, Halo Wars, etc), are the key to selling GAMING consoles. Extra features are nice, but the masses just don't care about them. The masses don't care about Blu-ray, though it's nice to have for available space on the disk.
@Slimebeat (and others): Price drops don't help as much as people think. The PS2 didn't have a price drop in it's first two years in NA (according to Wikipedia... though I trust it). The PS3 had roughly 2, while the 360 had one. Revisions of SKUs make it more difficult to say what a price cut is... but still, you get my drift. The Wii hasn't had a pricecut. Think of sales at $199. I have a friend whose mom was gonna get her a Wii for christmas, but decided it was too much. TOO MUCH? FOR A WII? Then I brought my Wii over and my friends mom was chaning her mind, it was almost worth the price, but she'll probably still wait for it to become available and for the price to drop. @Everyone (including me): "The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data." Thank you famousringo for your wise words.
@tombi123: no, GTA isn't the only game on the PS2 and PS3. Just like Mario (and Mario spin offs) and Zelda are not the only games on the GameCube/Wii. Obviously GC had few games, but it still had more than Mario and Zelda. Same with Wii. Same with any console. It's just that some games define a console. FPS for 360, Mario for Nintendo consoles, GTA/FF/GT games for PS3. Those are the big ones, yes, but it's the hundreds of smaller (and sometimes shovel) games that what really give depth to a system. And it's that depth that makes or breaks a system.
I'm done. Maybe in an hour I'll post another long one. My dinner is getting cold.