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Who do you think will win the console wars?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Who do you think will win the console wars?

To me, sales dont really matter much, just because it sells more does not mean it is better. Probably the main factor in the Wii's success is its price point, so just because it sells more does not mean its the more enjoyable console, the 360 lots of games but plagued with hardware problems, PS3 Blu-ray compatible but high price and not as many games.

Anyways, in sales, I'd say the Wii and PS3 will be pretty close at the end of the generation. I expect Wii sales to drop dramatically by the end of this year or next, people will begin to realize what a rip off it is when they purchase a HDTV, with that being said I expect PS3 sales to take off once HD DVD dies seeing as it plays Blu-rays and plays games in High Definition. I foresee a slow death of sales for the 360 seeing as how its not cheap, and does not have a level of HD-ness comparable to the PS3 (especially since PS3 games are estimated to be only using about 20% of the Cell's potential)

So, PS3 and Wii close for 1st, 360 last.



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wii: 50-110M
ps3:60-100M
X360:35-50M



 

mM
Username2324 said:
To me, sales dont really matter much, just because it sells more does not mean it is better. Probably the main factor in the Wii's success is its price point, so just because it sells more does not mean its the more enjoyable console, the 360 lots of games but plagued with hardware problems, PS3 Blu-ray compatible but high price and not as many games.

Anyways, in sales, I'd say the Wii and PS3 will be pretty close at the end of the generation. I expect Wii sales to drop dramatically by the end of this year or next, people will begin to realize what a rip off it is when they purchase a HDTV, with that being said I expect PS3 sales to take off once HD DVD dies seeing as it plays Blu-rays and plays games in High Definition. I foresee a slow death of sales for the 360 seeing as how its not cheap, and does not have a level of HD-ness comparable to the PS3 (especially since PS3 games are estimated to be only using about 20% of the Cell's potential)

So, PS3 and Wii close for 1st, 360 last.

 Nope, not even close to correct, since around 60% of Wii owners have HD capable TV's, in fact my parents recently bought a LCD screen and used the Wii on it they thought the graphics were amazing, just goes to show that the mass market doesn't care



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

leo-j said:
wii: 50-110M
ps3:60-100M
X360:35-50M

Com'on Leo. You have such huge spans, it's ridiculous. Even an imbecill can say "between 50 and 110 mill" and be right in the end. With 8459 posts on these forums one would think you would know a little more about prediction skills than this.



Avinash_Tyagi said:
MrMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Brand means squat, if it did N64 would have beaten the PS1, what games on the PS3 give it a diverse library, in fact it shares a lot of its library with the 360

 as for GT, you say it has wide causal appeal yet it seems to sell in a similar range except when bundled 


This is why I think the Wii is not in competition with the PS3 or 360. If the Wii fits all of your needs, you will never understand why for others it does not. Vice versa it true.

 

It’s a totally different Market.

 


 Maybe, but its a bigger market, which is why it will sell far more


The Microwave market is bigger than the Wii, so should we have a Microwave vs Wii debate?

Yes, there is a strong chance more Wii's will sell, but who cares? I think it has little effect on the PS3 or 360. In fact, it might have helped. The 360+PS3 sales are MUCH higher then PS2 sales. (the PS3 alone is tracking with PS2)

 



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MrMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
MrMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Brand means squat, if it did N64 would have beaten the PS1, what games on the PS3 give it a diverse library, in fact it shares a lot of its library with the 360

 as for GT, you say it has wide causal appeal yet it seems to sell in a similar range except when bundled 


This is why I think the Wii is not in competition with the PS3 or 360. If the Wii fits all of your needs, you will never understand why for others it does not. Vice versa it true.

 

It’s a totally different Market.

 


 Maybe, but its a bigger market, which is why it will sell far more


The Microwave market is bigger than the Wii, so should we have a Microwave vs Wii debate?

Yes, there is a strong chance more Wii's will sell, but who cares? I think it has little effect on the PS3 or 360. In fact, it might have helped. The 360+PS3 sales are MUCH higher then PS2 sales. (the PS3 alone is tracking with PS2)

 


the front page cares



bluster said:
Oh...so many crazy posts in here...


 I second that. One billion times. ;)

I'm not even going to try to straighten out this mess that is this thread. But as always, discussions are great, and since everyone is staying in line (for the most part), it's all good. I just want to touch up on a few things, and possibly some "misconceptions" that seem to be thrown around too much.  Where to even begin?

@dtewi: Since I think the PS3 is a bit ahead of it's time (if not by like 2 years), especially for a console, it is possible that it could last 10 years. It's even possible that it might expand over the 8th generation and last until the 9th, since Nintendo will probably release a system in 6ish more years (roughly Nov. 2013), and at that time, a lot of people say (though I don't know how true this would be) Nintendo could release a system slightly more powerful than the PS3. Someone said in this thread that the next Xbox would unlikely be more powerful than the PS3 (CPU wise), so i don't know how powerful the Wii2 will be. Depending on the power of the Wii2, and what Sony wants to do, there might not be a reason to release anonther system. If they do, but don't make it as advanced as the PS3 (as in advance for 2013, like how the PS3 is advanced for 2007), then it won't be much of a step up. Might as well stay with the PS3. If they wish to release another powerful console, they might, but since that hasn't worked so well, up to this point, I doubt they'll go that route. As such, depending on technology and other unforseeable things, the PS4 could possibly be part of the 9th gen. Too many ifs to really know. But you're probably right, and as such Sony will find itself in a interesting position. Stick with (perhaps) a system that has reached it's potential, saleswise and performance wise, release a relatively small "upgrade" PS4 (otherwise known as the PlayStation 3.5), or go the same route with the PS4 as they did the PS3, and hope the results are different? Decisions decisions.

@all (and fooflexible, since you brought it up): It's important to remember that usually once a system starts winning, there's not much that can be done. Also, after my analysis (see my sig), that the last generation consoles that lost, none of them had a year over year increase that is worth mentioning. The Xbox and GC both hovered at their launch year sales for the 2nd and 3rd year, before falling, and ultimately sold 99% of lifetime sales in their first 5 years. The PS2, on the other hand, sold only 75% of lifetime sales in it's first 5 years. The 360 saw a 37% increase in it's second year, which is a very decent increase (compare that to PS2 second year increase of 40%, and of course the actual numbers are bigger for the PS2 since it sold more in it's first year. Overall, the first three years are the most important, since that's when you really need to increase sales, year over year. After the third, sales start to decrease. So yes, the 360 is in it's third year, meaning if it only sells another 11 million, which is an increase from 8 million in it's second year, that's only 26 million, at the height of it's life. From there, it just goes downhill. Period.

@Garcian Smit: Too true about the games thing. [insert game here] will not save [insert system here]. Period. The end. A ton of great and ok games will definitely help a system, no doubt. But in the end, price point, available games (as of today, not games that are going to be released, which includes SSBB, Mario Kart, FFVIII, Halo Wars, etc), are the key to selling GAMING consoles. Extra features are nice, but the masses just don't care about them. The masses don't care about Blu-ray, though it's nice to have for available space on the disk.

@Slimebeat (and others): Price drops don't help as much as people think. The PS2 didn't have a price drop in it's first two years in NA (according to Wikipedia... though I trust it). The PS3 had roughly 2, while the 360 had one. Revisions of SKUs make it more difficult to say what a price cut is... but still, you get my drift. The Wii hasn't had a pricecut. Think of sales at $199. I have a friend whose mom was gonna get her a Wii for christmas, but decided it was too much. TOO MUCH? FOR A WII? Then I brought my Wii over and my friends mom was chaning her mind, it was almost worth the price, but she'll probably still wait for it to become available and for the price to drop. @Everyone (including me): "The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data." Thank you famousringo for your wise words.

@tombi123: no, GTA isn't the only game on the PS2 and PS3. Just like Mario (and Mario spin offs) and Zelda are not the only games on the GameCube/Wii. Obviously GC had few games, but it still had more than Mario and Zelda. Same with Wii. Same with any console. It's just that some games define a console. FPS for 360, Mario for Nintendo consoles, GTA/FF/GT games for PS3. Those are the big ones, yes, but it's the hundreds of smaller (and sometimes shovel) games that what really give depth to a system. And it's that depth that makes or breaks a system.

I'm done. Maybe in an hour I'll post another long one. My dinner is getting cold. 

 



Oh yeah my predictions:
Wii - between 30 million and 175 million
PS3 - between 20 million and 60 million
360 - between 26 million and 64 million

I better be right. Or I'll kill myself. Only 6ish years until I (and the rest of us) find out.

Edit: This are not real. I dont' make predictions. As an historian, I'm more of a past trends guy. See my sig... 



Username2324 said:
To me, sales dont really matter much, just because it sells more does not mean it is better. Probably the main factor in the Wii's success is its price point, so just because it sells more does not mean its the more enjoyable console, the 360 lots of games but plagued with hardware problems, PS3 Blu-ray compatible but high price and not as many games.

Anyways, in sales, I'd say the Wii and PS3 will be pretty close at the end of the generation. I expect Wii sales to drop dramatically by the end of this year or next, people will begin to realize what a rip off it is when they purchase a HDTV, with that being said I expect PS3 sales to take off once HD DVD dies seeing as it plays Blu-rays and plays games in High Definition. I foresee a slow death of sales for the 360 seeing as how its not cheap, and does not have a level of HD-ness comparable to the PS3 (especially since PS3 games are estimated to be only using about 20% of the Cell's potential)

So, PS3 and Wii close for 1st, 360 last.

More/better sales = More third party support

 




@Stever89

It's a known fact that PS3 sales almost exploded after the 2nd price drop. In both NA and Europe. And it was not about games, becuase there haven't been any AAA PS3 titles yet (not even close), and the so called Blu-ray effect can't have anything to do with the rise in sales since it was only a couple of weeks ago Warner killed HD DVD.

Someone plz make some of those graphs that this site offers! (to show the sharp upward curve after the oct intro of a 40GB SKU)

I'd say the drop from $500 to $400 made miracles, and increase in sales lies in the 30-50% ballpark.

If we'd see a let's say $249 X360 Pro soon, the WW weekly sales would rise to +150,000 units and the console would sell +10 million this year.