With the current gen coming to a close, I thought it would be interesting to see how each of the big 3's marketshare has changed from the 6th - 7th gen.

6th gen:

1st - Sony (PS2): 77%

2nd - Microsoft (Xbox): 12%

3rd - Nintendo (GameCube): 11%

7th gen:

1st - Nintendo (Wii): 41%

2nd - Microsoft (X360): 30%

3rd - Sony (PS3): 29%

As you can see, both Nintendo and Microsoft increased their marketshare drastically this gen (30% and 18% respectively). This huge increase came at a cost though. Sony lost a whopping 48% of its marketshare and has fallen from being the biggest player in the market by a huge margin to being the smallest player in the market.

Thoughts? Will Nintendo and Microsoft be able to take away even more of Sonys marketshare next gen?

I think Sony will gain some % more next gen ( from Nintendo).
MS will hold it´s market share.
Nintendo will not repeat their success with the Wii (which isn´t necesseary for Nintendo).
-> I expect something like 33.33 % for everyone ;)

pretty much this. i've this all gen about the 8th gen.

i think if played right Sony could win next gen, but maybe by no more then 5-10% market share. MS and Nintendo to battle for 2rd.

Ouya and Valve lol.

I think the MS next gen will be:

Microsoft - 47%

Nintendo - 33%

Sony - 20%

Next gen-

Nintendo- 38%
Microsoft- 35%
Sony- 27%

Close indeed.

Is this including the 50 million PS2's sold this generation, or not including them? Just wondering (and cannot be bothered to do the maths myself).

MS - 45%
Sony - 30%
Nintendo - 25%

Basic prediction for next gen. Microsoft will be ahead, Sony and Nintendo will fight for 2nd place. Any of the 3 has a good chance of being at the top though, I just think MS has a slightly better chance.

This includes the total sales of all consoles

Cool. Marketshare this gen is quite irrelevant though in the grand scheme of things looking at that.

The leader went from ~50% in its prime and will finish in the 30-40% range, along with the 2nd and 3rd place consoles at the end of the generation.

Also worth noting, is that the 2nd and 3rd place consoles both also had better 3rd party support.

Next gen marketshare?

Sony - 37%
Ninty - 33%
Microsoft - 30%

Once again, all 3 in the 30-40 range.

I expect they will probally all be in the 30 percent range for this next generation. I wrote a rant style article at the beining of last gen with the simular expectations (the market going Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony) I based my views on the reception that each console had at the trade showes I attended that year and how Sony at that time was treating smaller developers. (At GDC they blatently told the makers of the Torque Engine that they will not need any indie support and that they could support the console if it came to it.) I guessed at that time the market in units sold will unfold lower-to-mid 70's for the Wii, mid-60's for the 360 and lower to mid 60's for the PS3. I was also only expecting the cycle to last only 5 year because of Nintendo's choice to stay SD and in 5-to-6 years there will be enough HD TV's in the user base to support three consoles, and Nintendo would be the first to come out with their new console.

So I will say it I don't expect any console to bread 75 million this cycle and the cycle will be the "last" only because of network services will become mature enough that this generation of console will only see a modest update once the network service because resilant enough, and the home console will no longer have to be updated in a traditional sense since the updates will be server side, Nintendo will probally come out with some interesting controls for their system. I will write up something on it once I get what the new systems actually are and not just rumors.