I don't think I'm alone here when I noticed something unusual in weekly sales data ending December 1st, 2012.
The 360 only sold 20,000 units more then then PS3 this week, the week just after Black Friday, a week typically the 360 starts to dominate PS3 sales.
The issue is that 360 has been selling below PS3 for the first 10 months of the year, the gap usually grows in PS3's favor 1-1.5 million, and then in the fall the 360 closes the gap. Last year I think PS3 only outsold the 360 by 300k or so, with a small annual difference like that it was unlikely PS3 was going to catch up to the 360 soon.
However last year, for the same week (Dec 3rd) the 360 outsold the PS3 by 114,000 units or so, nearly 5 times as big of a gap as this year.
If this trend continues, the 360-PS3 gap this year will be a lot bigger then last year, likely around 1 million annually.
This would make the total difference about 2.2/2.3 million units big.
Now it's unlikely PS3 will surpass 360 by 2013, even temporarily because both systems are going to be down YoY and PS3 has never come close to outselling the 360 by 2.3 million units in a 10 month period, but it's very likely that the PS3 could temporarily surpass the 360 in 2014, loose the lead in fall 2014 (or maybe not if PS3 can keep up against 360 next fall), but then hold a permanent lead in 2015.
I think PS3 will eventually surpass 360 since Microsofts main market is USA/Europe, where Sony sells their system in other regions which tend to stick around to the current generation longer. Heck I mean PS2 is still selling something like 2.5-3 million units in 2012, 13 years after it released.
So do you guys agree? What do you think?
Temperarilty means that PS3 will surpass 360 at some point in that year, but loose the lead in the typically 360 favoring falls.
Permantly means that PS3 will surpass 360 and remain ahead at some point in that year, never to loose the lead.