I'm unconvinced until I see what Nintendo's up to at E3.  If they announce Mario HD, Zelda, and maybe Retro's next game or some kind of surprise bombshell third-party exclusive like Bayonetta 2, then I will plan on picking it up black friday week next year.

I'd say it's pretty much a lock you'll see 3D Mario (EAD Tokyo), Mario Kart, and Retro's game at E3 next year, if not before in a Nintendo Direct. 

These aren't really "surprises" at this point, just a matter of when Nintendo wants to show them. 

You are probably better off waiting next year is money is an issue as the price will likely be cut by next fall and in any case there will be far more games available. 

I think MSs next system will dominate in NA and it may well beat Sony in Europe too. In Japan though, I think the odds are favorable for WiiU to lead PS4.

Right off the bat WiiU has Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest X and Mario. Three of the biggest guns in Japan. It should be more affordable than PS4 and probably costs less to develop for. In Japan one console tends to dominate. PS3 was expected to but never did until Wii ran it's course. So many Japanese developers will be happy to bet on WiiU being the most popular and place their Japanese centric titles (like MH and DQ) on WiiU where costs are more manageable (maybe) with possible PS3 ports (or PS4 if not too much more powerful). PS4 seems to be betting on 3D - I expect that to fall flat as it did for 3D TVs and 3DS.

Most importantly, Japanese hate MS so it still won't win in this market regardless of what they do.

Yep.  Mario HD and Retro are probably a lock for next holiday.  Smash and Zelda are probably already locked in for 2014.

I honestly think microsoft will miss out on a bit next gen because of their position there. When enough of your market own a ps4 or wii u for a jrpg why bother making a game for xbox? Actually those next gen rumors already implied capcom and namco are favoring those two over xbox. I'm suspicious it won't be as easy a ride for microsoft as ign's sources think.

Umm second weeks are always like this no? Wii had a 67% drop to 150k in comparison. So :|

There's little doubt in my mind that Wii U will excell by far the most in Japan (relative to population difference of course). They tend to favor the handheld/tablet style gaming which the Wii U somewhat represents, not to mention its quirky Japanese style games like Nintendoland. It's funny, because I actually thought this would be the case with the Wii, but it turned out to be the opposite.

However, if these second week numbers for the US are any indication, this is pretty troubling for the console as a whole. Japan can only do so much, and they are not as significant in the gaming world as they once were. Look at MS, they've managed to outsell the NES with virtually no success in Japan. In other words, it's a far better scenario to have success in most other markets and not Japan, than to ONLY have major success in Japan, which I fear the Wii U is getting set for. And unlike the 3DS, that can get away with these sales because of its lack of significant competition, the Wii U WILL have strong competition, even if it comes a year later.

Barring a sales miracle that rockets it up like a Wii Fit type, or Monster Hunter for PSP, I see the Wii U as possibly the next N64 in terms of sales, and stuck in neutral for most of its life. Perhaps average sales, but a major step down from the previous gen, and possibly outsold by competitors.

already drawing conclusions after one week on the market? sounds reasonable.

If the guys from Neogaf are to be believed. Sony and MS are aiming at least 10x more power than their current gen systems.

"Second week sales plummeted for the wii u. You cannot blame stock issues like Nintendo surely will in the coming weeks. I have seen it in stock everywhere."

Where? I can't find a single black wii u in stock ANYwhere from south NJ up through NYC. On waiting lists and all that. What part of the country are you in, where it's in stock everywhere?