PS3 will outsell 360, but it won't outsell Wii. I think PS3's lifetime sales will be about 95 million. Even with GoW: Ascension and The Last of Us being released, I still think PS3's sales will continue to decline next year, especially if PS4 is unveiled in the next few months.

It's best years are behind it. It's been out for 6 years so by your estimate it's peak sales year possibly yet to come. The ps2 sold well after the ps3 came out and it possibly took sales away from the ps3, want that to happen again so you can "win" this gen? A gen that's basically over already? 45 mil shipped in the declining years of it's life? No chance.

Just because i don't want to look stupid in 5 years time, i'll say it should end up with around 90-110m

I think that's a safe prediction :D

If both Microsoft and Sony do what Nintendo did last gen with the Wii and focused on innovation and casual gaming then both of them might reach the 100m mark. Graphics are not the selling point that it used to be for consoles. Game companies realize that game systems have to do more. The Xbox 360 and PS3 were designed to be future proof, and have a very long shelf life. So When Xbox 720 and PS4 finally get here, they aren't likely to be any more powerful than the current gen consoles. Get used to 8-10 year life cycles for these modern consoles people, I wouldn't hold your breath.

To anyone pointing to how well the PS2 performed in its later years as evidence of how the PS3 will, you need to be realistic.

To reiterate a post I made a few weeks ago, the PS3 is most certainly not the PS2 in the marketplace.  The PS2 was all alone in its dominance.  The PS3 will not have that luxury as there will always be the 360 as an alternative, not to mention that the brand new WiiU is not unreasonably more expensive than Sony's 6 year old tech.  Of course the PS3 can continue to receive ports for a while because of scalable engines, but again, so can the 360.

Will they still be manufacturing/selling the PS3 in 2016? Possibly, but its relevance (i.e. the longevity that the PS2 enjoyed) will have dwindled off long before then. Price drops and blu-ray playback will certainly help, but around 90-95m tops is actually realistic. I really don't foresee a scenario where it reaches 100m and it certainly won't come close to 115m.

Definitely a crazy prediction and one that is so crazy it feels too easy and boring to say you'll be wrong, but it's a fun prediction. I'm not entirely confident PS3 will even hit 100 million, though. It would be nice and I suppose it could, but I have my doubts. I guess we'll just have to wait... a very long time.

PS3 doesn't need to reach 115M to take the top spot.
The Wii will start having negative sales anytime soon and PS3 will have passed it by the end of 2014.

Shipped numbers from the other console would be nice. :)

I think it will get to 100M but not 115M. The ps3 has the advantage that the ps2 is currently in use in a lot of developing countries as the cheap gaming console that has a huge library and a dvd drive. Once sony discontinue the making of new ps2s, which they will once the ps4 arrives, those same developing countries will be more likely to switch to the ps3 which will have IPs they are familiar with. The blue ray drive and the cheaper price than current (since the ps3 price will likely be cut soon) will also help with this, as will the countries' own development which will likely see rising middle classes adopting slightly more expensive consoles than the previous gens.

I also think the ps3 will likely sell 10+M next year - while sales will probably be lower than 2012 the exclusive games and the likely price cut should see the ps3 well. And if the ps4 lacks backwards compatibility (which imo would be a mistake) like the rumours suggest then you will see a lot of demand still for the ps3.

SANTA OF WAR PS4 LAUNCH TITTLE CONFIRMED!!!!! 

and give presents to the kids? i didnt know kids were hoping for master chief to be decapitated and his head given to them as their xmax present. geez just showed how out of touch i am with the market! i thought kids wanted toys and games!!