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Forums - Sales Discussion - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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GameAnalyser on 02 January 2013
FaintZ said:
2012/2013: Vgchartz:
"Never ever" "Ava Controll for 2 weeks etho! This won´t happen haha"


2022: Sony: The PS3 has reached a milestone!!!!
It has sold over 115. million!
Take that Wii

Vgchartz: *ethomaz gets ava controll for the whole Vgchartz community* "All hail Sony" Random Nintendo user: "No I don´t want Kratos in my ava" Etho: "You get what you deserve!"


Meanwhile on other gaming forums:
" PS3? The Blue Ray Player?"
"No the microwave!"
"Sony has made a microwave? Every day you learn something new!"
" Oh well I thought that was this radiator... My PS5 is THE thing."

So ethomaz will be a legend?






* no offense

LOL!



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Jumpin on 02 January 2013

If Sony doesn't release PS4 until 2025, maybe PS3 will sell 115 million. Although, I highly doubt it will ever get to 90 million.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

bouzane on 02 January 2013
sales2099 said:
bouzane said:
Mazty said:
bouzane said:
Mazty said:
92 mill - 100 mill tops. I think as of now, most people who want one, have one, and with the advent of the next-gen on the horizon, sales will only slow down.


You're dead wrong there. I want a PS3 but it is too expensive and I live in Canada. I can imagine somebody living in Brazil or India.


Dead wrong? You have to also include those whose want for a PS3 will be replaced by a nextgen console. Plus in most places it's really rather cheap. In the UK it's £150. That's less then almost all smart phones...


£150 is an expensive toy for a lot of people living in the developed world, let alone developing nations. The exorbitant cost of smart phones doesn't factor into this discussion at all. A cutting edge smart phone that has many non-gaming functions versus an aging game console that does nothing right beyond Netflix and Blu-Rays. Again, I think you are drastically underestimating the impact further price cuts will have. I own dozens of PS3 games but I never bothered to replace my PS3 due to cost, I can imagine somebody living in Brazil who has yet to purchase any PS3 games.

You know 360 is significantly cheaper in Brazil because they actually manufacture 360s there. If any console benefits long term from that country, its 360.


I never knew that. You know, the last time I read up on the Brazilian game market was when SEGA the dominant console manufacturer there.



ethomaz on 02 January 2013

bouzane said:

I never knew that. You know, the last time I read up on the Brazilian game market was when SEGA the dominant console manufacturer there.

The Sega console is manufactured here yet... Master System and Mega Drive sells ~150k consoles per year. The PS2 is the dominant console here with sales over 5 million lifetime.

If my maths is not too wrong the lifetime sales for Brazil are at the end of 2012...

PS3: ~1600k
360: ~1000k
Wii: ~500k



ethomaz on 08 January 2013

29th Dec 2012 Update

The 2012 prediction seems pretty good... without the adjustments I have that overall results:

US: ~400k under
EU: ~150k under
JP: ~100k under

I expect after some ajustments my prediction became even better.



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ethomaz on 11 January 2013

kowenicki said:

and now?

I think 1.5m too high this year and 4m too high next year, after that.... way off.

US: 696,399 under * NPD Adjustments killed me
EU: 370,336 under * EU was adjusted down this week too
JP: 104,445 under * no adjustment

The real problem here is US... I was surprised that sales were too low for all consoles... so I can't see how that can change next year I will just lost more and more. Now EU I expect some adjustments after Nintendo financial... so I can turn around and I really think the sales are over my prediction.

Japan is my most accurate region and of course the easily but PS3 is too strong there that I think my 1.2m for the this year is low... PS3 will be flat or up in Japan this year... near 1.4m I guess.

Overall I'm no too good but I expect some EU and JP help this year.



Mummelmann on 18 January 2013
kowenicki said:
So it is down YOY by 220k (33%) so far after just two weeks. Its looking like down by at least 30% to 35% this year, giving shipments of about 9m. So by end of 2014 you will already be over by around 4m.

You have shipments down 900k (7%) for the whole of 2013, and then down by just 17% in 2014.

I wouldn't be surprised if your prediction requires it to be flat for 2013 as you may have over predicted 2012.

Have you actually looked at your prediction in a line graph?

The yoy drops are likely to increase through the year with the announcement of new consoles. A lot of titles are being pushed forwards on the release slate as well, probably to accommodate launch titles for next gen consoles, this relative and likely lack of massive fall titles will also have an impact.



GribbleGrunger on 17 April 2013
Mazty said:
92 mill - 100 mill tops. I think as of now, most people who want one, have one, and with the advent of the next-gen on the horizon, sales will only slow down.

Couldn't you have said that for the PS1, PS2 and PSP? It's a fallacious argument and one that I really can't understand still exists in light of the trends with every other Sony console.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


benao87 on 17 April 2013
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:

4. JAPAN (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 472,605 472,605 -
2007   - - 1,218,612 1,691,217 -
2008 -  - 1,065,808 2,757,025 -
2009 - - 1,829,784 4,586,809 -
2010 - - 1,553,638 6,140,447 -
2011 - - 1,521,847 7,662,294 -
2012 1,300,000
 9,000,000 1,233,261 8,895,555 -104,445  
2013 1,200,000
 10,200,000        
2014 1,000,000
 11,200,000      
2015 600,000
 11,800,000
 

2016 400,000 12,200,000        
2017+ 300,000 12,500,000        

Already tracking down by 27% this year. So this part is already dead.  You expected it to be down 7%.  Yes? 

7.69%, but you are not taking into account that One Piece has not..... wait a minute. And to be fair it's only down 26.87% YoY, with MC numbers, you know because we are not discussing other tracker's numbers :P



Complete comic

Mazty on 17 April 2013
GribbleGrunger said:
Mazty said:
92 mill - 100 mill tops. I think as of now, most people who want one, have one, and with the advent of the next-gen on the horizon, sales will only slow down.

Couldn't you have said that for the PS1, PS2 and PSP? It's a fallacious argument and one that I really can't understand still exists in light of the trends with every other Sony console.

There's nothing fallacious about it  - that word makes no sense in that context.

You are ignoring that this gen has been the most stretched out.