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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS3 Will be the number 1 selling console in Europe this gen.

 

Agree? disagree?

Yes it will happen next year 111 38.54%
 
It will Happen in 2014 64 22.22%
 
I think it might happen 33 11.46%
 
Nah i aint to sure about this 7 2.43%
 
I dont think it will happen 30 10.42%
 
Never in a million years 25 8.68%
 
Results 18 6.25%
 
Total:288
kowenicki said:

you're late....

I predicted this nearly 2 years ago...

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=127307&page=

almost everyone disagreed with me.

That thread, from 2011, is pure gold. So much faith on wii. Crazy stuff.



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Best selling console in Europe ?

That's for sure. Even if PS3 sales fall another 20% in 2013(Like it happened from 2011 to 2013). It will still be enoungh to achieve leadership there.



kowenicki said:

One will only come with the other.

It won't be the biggest seling console in The US, UK or Japan ever.  The 3 biggest markets, which doesnt bode well for the next PS.

PS2 was the biggest selling console in all 3, without the Xbox and GC putting up any kind of fight. Look how the 360 and Wii did in comparison.

You dont need to win in the biggest markets to be successful. The PS3 is in a far better position than the Gamecube and Xbox combined.

UK is funny. The PS3 will finish last in the UK but 1st in Europe as a whole. Highlights how the UK is like a new US State. SW is kinda odd too. The PS3 will end the generation with the 3rd biggest SW market that Europe has ever seen, behind only the PS and PS2.

PS is in a great position. Its not going to win in the 3 biggest markets... But it is at least healthy in all 3 and has had consistant 3rd party support. It will finish with over 90 Million units sold without winning in any of the said countries.

4 Years ago, PS was in an awful position. Today, PS is arguably stronger than its competitors in the home console market.



                            

How do we go through 3 pages and no one lists numbers from the site.

As of Dec 3rd VGC data:

Console

NA

Japan EU+Others
Wii 43.33 12.63 41.25
X360 39.29 1.62 29.16
PS3 24.36 8.65 35.33

So, now lets see each gap.

Wii vs X360 in NA has a gap of 43.33 - 39.29 = 4.04m.
Wii's decline will slow as it hits the $99 price point with the new WiiMini and other bundles for 2013-2015 as its retired as a console.
X360's decline is already double digits per year (just as Wii's was beginning in 2011). It will be higher once neXtBox is confirmed in early 2013.

Wii's 2012 NA should end ~2m. X360s NA should be ~5m. That means X360 gained 3m in 2012. 2013 would at most be another 3m. So depending on how much Wii's decay rate slows and how much X360's increases... it could happen in 2014.

So yes, there is a distinct possibility X360 will have the lead in NA by 2014, but at the very least it SHOULD happen before each console is retired.

Wii vs PS3 is Europe+Others has a gap of 41.25 - 35.33m = 5.92.
Wii's decline will also slow here, especially as the WiiMini is introduced and it becomes more affordable in "others".
PS3's decline here should remain the same with double digit declines as its cost also continues to go down.

Wii's 2012 EU+Others should end ~2m. PS3's EU+Others should end ~5m. This really is almost identical to X360 in NA, just a slightly larger gap. Kinda funny.

So yes, there is a distinct possibility PS3will have the lead in EU+Others by 2015, but at the very least it SHOULD happen before each console is retired.

Conclusion:
So, a little more than a year ago I thought this wasn't going to happen, but of course Wii declined further than I anticipated. So so long as each console is around to 2015, then its definitely plausible we'll have three consoles that are market leaders in three different regions of the world. Man this gen has been so much different than ALL before it. Can't wait for next!

In the end, I don't think it matters beyond fanboy boasting. Wii dominated, 3rd parties chose PS360PC. Nintendo realized it wasn't going to happen and moved on over two years ago.

Now we have a new generation and new possibilities. Each has their strengths and their potential money makers. Of course... there is a very likely outcome that a 4th and 5th competitor will enter the ring. (I think it will happen in 2013 and it will hurt Sony more than anyone else)



I think that WW the PS3 will be the best selling console when all is said and done.



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slowmo said:
It does have a good shot at the Wii but I think you're overestimated PS3 sales as it will be hitting saturation point in Europe so will decline also. 2014 is still good though, just not 2013 imo. As for worldwide, I don't see the PS3 selling another 30+ million consoles but fairplay to Sony if it does, it should pull in some much needed profit. Rest of the world is where the big gains are still to be made for Sony.

Ethomaz you should start a thread with your prediction, I would be interested to see your sales breakdown per region for each year.

I can see PS3 and X360 selling another 20-30 Million units.   Sales for them will surely fall when their successors arrive, but not at Wii levels.

Btw, both Sony and MS haven't reached the $99 price yet. There are plenty of unexplored markets they could go for.



superchunk said:

How do we go through 3 pages and no one lists numbers from the site.

As of Dec 3rd VGC data:

Console

NA

Japan EU+Others
Wii 43.33 12.63 41.25
X360 39.29 1.62 29.16
PS3 24.36 8.65 35.33

So, now lets see each gap.

Wii vs X360 in NA has a gap of 43.33 - 39.29 = 4.04m.
Wii's decline will slow as it hits the $99 price point with the new WiiMini and other bundles for 2013-2015 as its retired as a console.
X360's decline is already double digits per year (just as Wii's was beginning in 2011). It will be higher once neXtBox is confirmed in early 2013.

Wii's 2012 NA should end ~2m. X360s NA should be ~5m. That means X360 gained 3m in 2012. 2013 would at most be another 3m. So depending on how much Wii's decay rate slows and how much X360's increases... it could happen in 2014.

So yes, there is a distinct possibility X360 will have the lead in NA by 2014, but at the very least it SHOULD happen before each console is retired.

From the frontpage:

Wii: 43,7m

360: 40,2m

Gap = 3.5m

I think the gap will be about one million by the end of the year.



North America LOVES Microsoft while Japan is horny at NINTENDO!!!!
and we Europeans we LOVEEEEEEE Sony :D



runqvist said:

From the frontpage:

Wii: 43,7m

360: 40,2m

Gap = 3.5m

I think the gap will be about one million by the end of the year.


I got totals from the global charts, not front page. So maybe off by a week's data or changes in data not present on one screen or other, etc.

You need to look at whole year, not just guessing December. X360 won't cut the gap by 2m in December alone. You're more than likely over estimating X360's potential sales this month.

2011 X360 sold 2.2m in December. They have about a 40% YOY decline so far. So, I'd bet they'll sell close to 1.5m in NA.
2011 Wii sold 1.2m in December. They'll likely be around 800k.
That means a further gap cut by less than a million.

The gap will likely still be ~3m by end of this year... especially once all adjustments are accounted for.



aimancooper said:
North America LOVES Microsoft while Japan is horny at NINTENDO!!!!
and we Europeans we LOVEEEEEEE Sony :D<3


me not ;)