@andrespetmonkey
Your overlooking something truly fundamental in your analysis, or is it something terribly ironic. Anyway straight to the point. Sony has effectively lowered its sales forecasts for the Vita three times this year, and I wouldn't be shocked in the least if they did it one more time early next year. If Sony decreased its own production capacity accordingly. Then the Vita is actually effectively supply constrained.
While enacting a price cut may increase sales. Sony wouldn't be in a position to exploit those sales. Not only would Sony lose money, but they wouldn't even be able to gain serious market share by doing so. You see you are kind of missing a profit motive for the whole price cutting speculation. Sony plans to sell five million units by March if their forecast is a even split, and that isn't even to end users. That may be on the hard side, but Sony as of now has relatively little invested in the product.
Sony sent a message with their constant forecast cutting, and that is they don't have much faith in their own product, and aren't actively trying to make it into a huge success. The industry heard that, retailers heard that, and informed consumers heard that. The only people who aren't paying attention to this not so subtle message are die hard fans on forums such as these.
Which brings me to my next point. The reason that we probably don't see games for the second half of next year is that they probably don't exist. I am not saying it is a no mans land, but it is probably fairly sparse as we would see things. I honestly think the only thing that can turn the Vita around is Sony getting serious about the products future prospects.
They aren't sending mixed signals. They are sending all the wrong ones. I understand why they have cut back so much on production. They don't want to replicate the PS3 fiasco. Where they overproduced, and were forced to do things that lost them lots of money in order to get a fraction of that money back. I actually agree with what they are doing, because until they cut back it was looking like another repeat. Something that they couldn't afford if they had any hope of ever releasing another console.
That said it is what it is. Sony gave up on the Vita. They have like the lowest possible expectations. Seriously your not creating a viable ecosystem at five million units a year. They are kind of limiting the games that they are going to be able to get. I have never understood how someone can actually force excitement for this product. When Sony itself the ones who should be selling the machine are basically apathetic about the Vita.