superchunk said:
1) Being first to the market has never cemented victory in any home console generation. However, it is still beneficial if done right with a lot of good content. There is always the risk of being ignored later though.
2) Its Nintendo, publishers will be skeptical and outright bullish on Nintendo. Why? because Nintendo is the only hardware where its first party can and will greatly out shine anything a 3rd party creates. Basically, 3rd parties see Nintendo not only as a valid userbase, but also one of the primary software competitors. The only way for them to overcome this is to ensure the cost of putting the game on the consoles is very, very small so they know that even if they don't sell at the same levels as other consoles, they will still be highly profitable. This is Nintendo's approach with WiiU as it has been made to be very easily ported to.
3) The launch line up is fantastic, however, to whom? Any Nintendo IP fan should be very happy with what is offered. Gamers who simply don't care for Nintendo IPs, however, don't have anything new or unique in this line-up. The only hint at that is Bayonetta2 or Monster Hunter. But none of that comes out until next year. Nintendo needs to get a few good exclusives from now until the rest of next-gen comes out as well as get the exact same 3rd party games the rest of next gen will get. If either of those fail, then upgraders will spend the likely extra $100 to buy a neXtBox/PS4 over a WiiU.
4) This really ties into #3 and the content available. Nintendo won't ever get everyone. Some people simply hate Nintendo. But they are a minority and those who have indifference to Nintendo IPs might jump on if the same content in games is there plus the added benefits the controller/miiverse/etc might add. But at this time, you cannot say this will happen. 2013 will be a big thing for Nintendo and either gaining or losing that potential crowd of upgraders.
5) This part is directly related to the cost it takes to put the game on WiiU. These publishers will go into this gen with the shared sentiment that ALL AAA games will be on neXtBox/PS4. The question is if its easily and cheaply capable to put the SAME game on WiiU. If it is, and there are other potential benefits with the gamepad or miiverse, etc, then the middle crowd that isn't fanboyish on a console will get WiiU and publishers may warm up to the system. If that fails, we may very likely be in the same boat as this gen as WiiU gets not real engine support and thus gets last-gen ported games only.
Summary
You did not make a good case. I'm a Nintendo die hard and yet I can see the inherent risk at repeating Wii's "failure" with 3rd parties. I am very certain the power differences wont' be the scapegoat this time around, but that doesn't mean publishers will support it. Nintendo still has a lot going against it from the mindsets of publishers as well as the more "core" gaming crowd.
The only way to combat this is going to be robust content. Nintendo needs to do whatever it can to not only put out its amazing IPs, but also support the 3rd party publishers in getting high quality engines and make it very easy for them to put content on the device. Lowering their costs will make the ROI greater and that will get the content there. Hell, maybe Nintendo should pay to have engines like UE4 altered to ensure it can be used on WiiU.
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