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Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2012 - Final Results

non-gravity on 23 November 2012
Pineapple said:

Additionally, if it's still possible, it would be lovely if you could send me the excel spreadsheet.

Good, send me your email adress then by personal message.



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jadakiss1217 on 23 November 2012

Yes!I'm in first place.



End of 2016 prediction

PS4:43M-46M

XBONE:28M-33M

Michael-5 on 24 November 2012
theprof00 said:
Last year, by week 3, the lowest score was 143. This year, it is 167. That is nearly a 20% increase in variance over last year, and that's just based on THIS week, since we are still using unadjusted numbers.

I'll bet that the lowest adjusted score this year will be at least 40% higher than last year's winner.

Well VGC did make a massive adjustment this year, it wasn't as radical last year. Also this year is hard to predict. Kinect's impact is starting to fade, Wii U will steal sales, and in general generation 7 is dying. I thought Halo 4 would still help 360 substantially, and Wii sales would improve better with the holidays and the Just Dance 4 bundle, but I guess I was wrong. I'm following PS3 well though.

3DS and Vita should be the only ones doing well, but 3DS isn't getting that much software support outside of Japan (In Japan it's killing it), and Vita's exclusives so far haven't been as good as expected.



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database
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superchunk on 24 November 2012
non-gravity said:
Our procedure is as follows:

We stick to the original numbers until January at which point the winner are declared on the original numbers. This is more fun than having weekly adjustments throwing everything off.

Also in January we can start looking at the final numbers and a final winner is declared after all adjusments, this will probably be done in October of next year before the new Countdown.

My Excel sheet allows me to easily switch between Original and Final numbers. Looking at the adjusted numbers now yo_john117 won both weeks.


So you don't move with the adjustments? That seems to be a bad policy. I'd think you'd stick to the newer numbers as that would be more accurate logically. Then call the game at the end of January when all possible adjustments are likely to have been made. 

:/

EDIT: I really have to suggest you only use adjusted numbers. I simply makes zero sense to use something that is knowingly wrong. You already keep both anyways, what's the issue?



non-gravity on 25 November 2012
superchunk said:
non-gravity said:
Our procedure is as follows:

We stick to the original numbers until January at which point the winners are declared on the original numbers. This is more fun than having weekly adjustments throwing everything off.

Also in January we can start looking at the final numbers and a final winner is declared after all adjusments, this will probably be done in October of next year before the new Countdown.

My Excel sheet allows me to easily switch between Original and Final numbers. Looking at the adjusted numbers now yo_john117 won both weeks.

So you don't move with the adjustments? That seems to be a bad policy. I'd think you'd stick to the newer numbers as that would be more accurate logically. Then call the game at the end of January when all possible adjustments are likely to have been made. 

:/

EDIT: I really have to suggest you only use adjusted numbers. I simply makes zero sense to use something that is knowingly wrong. You already keep both anyways, what's the issue?

Firstly this has been the procedure for as long as I'm participating. It is the nature of VGChartz that numbers can change every week. Just before the arrival of week 10 numbers everything up to that point can be thrown off in all directions. As a weekly game for 10 weeks I'd say it's more fun to not have your results wiped out every week.

The end of January numbers probably aren't accurate either. For the third Quarter results VGChartz made an adjustment after 7 to 8 weeks after the end of the quarter. This is why we'd typically wait with the final numbers until past the FY results in May/June. That's not to say I can't show you results based on adjustments much earlier, just not every week. I am not checking weekly for any adjustments, but I can show them to you now if people want to see them. When I looked last week many jumped up to 10 places 

It's good to be critical though. Again you can have a copy of my Excel sheet just fine.



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non-gravity on 25 November 2012

These are the changes when taking account of all adjustments. Edit: These are outdated now.

Change Rank New New Old Old
4 1 yo_john117 185 jadakiss1217 167
10 2 benji232 235 Pineapple 171
-1 3 Pineapple 237 Chark 174
-1 4 Chark 241 darkjonnyx 185
-1 5 darkjonnyx 242 yo_john117 195
13 6 think-man 251 non-gravity 196
6 7 Conegamer 273 theprof00 223
9 8 superchunk 273 Luthor 226
-8 9 jadakiss1217 278 BHR-3 249
11 10 Veknoid_out 294 Mr. Average 253
-5 11 non-gravity 302 SaviorX 254
-5 12 theprof00 312 benji232 255
-5 13 Luthor 333 Conegamer 270
-3 14 SaviorX 360 italo244 285
-5 15 Mr. Average 382 Carl2291 287
-7 16 BHR-3 393 pezus 302
7 17 AlphaCielago 409 superchunk 315
9 18 spurgeonryan 419 Michael-5 319
15 19 ClassicGaming 425 think-man 319
-5 20 Carl2291 426 skeezer 336
-7 21 italo244 427 Veknoid_out 339
-4 22 Michael-5 440 jonop 356
5 23 POE 443 # Toddifer 358
-8 24 pezus 452 AlphaCielago 371
-5 25 skeezer 467 fedfed 409
-3 26 # Toddifer 467 enrageorange 427
-2 27 fedfed 476 spurgeonryan 450
1 28 pokoko 498 POE 482
-7 29 jonop 508 pokoko 482
-4 30 enrageorange 547 Pavolink 520
0 31 F0X 613 F0X 521
0 32 Farsala 660 Farsala 551
-3 33 Pavolink 663 ethomaz 558
-1 34 ethomaz 675 ClassicGaming 578
1 35 ROBOTECH 807 the2real4ma 676
-1 36 the2real4ma 810 ROBOTECH 727
0 37 Proclus 920 Proclus 790
0 38 weaveworld 1021 weaveworld 948
0 39 menx64 1039 menx64 1032


Carl on 28 November 2012

Already been adjustments to this Weeks numbers.

Im still Miles out.





                            

ethomaz on 28 November 2012

Even with the adjustments I lose one position... bad bad bad.

Seems like @non-gravity will have a lot of work this 2012 edition lol.



non-gravity on 28 November 2012

Wow such nonesense. PS3, X360 and Wii are back up again.

I might as well show full results on adjusted numbers tomorrow. Scratch that.



non-gravity on 28 November 2012

Original is what we've been working with. Yesterday is including all adjustments until yesterday. Today is including all adjustments up to this moment. These are data for the first 3 weeks

PS3 1 2 3
Original 298,399 316,495 276,693
Today 269,026 254,221 294,985
Yesterday 261,753 249,524 276,693
X360 1 2 3
Original 258,456 425,815 354,206
Today 215,316 357,217 421,203
Yesterday 215,316 329,107 354,206
Wii 1 2 3
Original 75,21 89,852 91,443
Today 63,186 84,44 123,216
Yesterday 61,44 69,934 91,443
3DS 1 2 3
Original 301,578 412,683 462,381
Today 269,608 373,099 408,208
Yesterday 269,608 384,303 462,381
Vita 1 2 3
Original 59,326 60,331 89,653
Today 58,37 59,306 89,653
Yesterday 58,37 59,306 89,653