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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nokia Q3 2012: loss of $754 million. Lumia sales have dropped to 2.9 million.

Soleron said:
dallas said:

...


The market research analysts have uniformly said that msft will keep about five percent market share for smartphones but get around twenty percent for tablets.  

I'd be prepared to bet on the reverse.


Ok, and why is that?



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dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:

...


The market research analysts have uniformly said that msft will keep about five percent market share for smartphones but get around twenty percent for tablets.  

I'd be prepared to bet on the reverse.


Ok, and why is that?

Apple already has tablets completely locked down. When making software, developers only consider the iPad.

Phones are much more in flux because they're already porting to Android as well. The build quality and integration of the new HTCs and Lumias are superior in some ways to Android and iPhones, whereas with the Surface it's not better than anything that already exists.

Fundamentally I think people don't want to use Windows on a tablet, even with shiny Metro.

The analysts are thinking that because there are a lot of makers of RT/Pro tablets that it will succeed. Actually I think MS will universally undercut them all so only Surface is viable, and then I don't see actually 1 in 5 people outright choosing a Surface.



Soleron said:
dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:

...


The market research analysts have uniformly said that msft will keep about five percent market share for smartphones but get around twenty percent for tablets.  

I'd be prepared to bet on the reverse.


Ok, and why is that?

Apple already has tablets completely locked down. When making software, developers only consider the iPad.

Phones are much more in flux because they're already porting to Android as well. The build quality and integration of the new HTCs and Lumias are superior in some ways to Android and iPhones, whereas with the Surface it's not better than anything that already exists.

Fundamentally I think people don't want to use Windows on a tablet, even with shiny Metro.

The analysts are thinking that because there are a lot of makers of RT/Pro tablets that it will succeed. Actually I think MS will universally undercut them all so only Surface is viable, and then I don't see actually 1 in 5 people outright choosing a Surface.


Ok, well apple has been steadily dropping market sharesince the beginning and now, is down to about 50%.  I can't call that a lock on the tablet market, it's still anybody's game.  And Microsoft is ossibly just using the surface as a flagship device, to show off the OS more than to dominate the market.



dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:

...


The market research analysts have uniformly said that msft will keep about five percent market share for smartphones but get around twenty percent for tablets.  

I'd be prepared to bet on the reverse.


Ok, and why is that?

Apple already has tablets completely locked down. When making software, developers only consider the iPad.

Phones are much more in flux because they're already porting to Android as well. The build quality and integration of the new HTCs and Lumias are superior in some ways to Android and iPhones, whereas with the Surface it's not better than anything that already exists.

Fundamentally I think people don't want to use Windows on a tablet, even with shiny Metro.

The analysts are thinking that because there are a lot of makers of RT/Pro tablets that it will succeed. Actually I think MS will universally undercut them all so only Surface is viable, and then I don't see actually 1 in 5 people outright choosing a Surface.


Ok, well apple has been steadily dropping market sharesince the beginning and now, is down to about 50%.  I can't call that a lock on the tablet market, it's still anybody's game.  And Microsoft is ossibly just using the surface as a flagship device, to show off the OS more than to dominate the market.


Marketshare is not so steadily declining, actually. Apple's share dipped down to 53% last holiday quarter with the launch of the Fire, but Amazon's position quickly collapsed and Apple clawed back up to 65% in the following two quarters. Now it's back down to 50% on new Fires and the Nexus 7 just prior to the holidays, but this time Apple has a new product launch and a refresh of its own to counter, with Windows RT playing the dark horse. Are these new tablets going to stick, or are they going to burn out after the burst of launch enthusiasm?

Things are very volatile, but if anybody's going to threaten Apple, they need to do more than just ship a bunch of units into the channel at discount prices. They need to move content. Microsoft needs to attract developers, Google needs to pay its developers and expand its content portfolio (difficult to do when its entire business model is based on the commoditization of content), and Amazon needs to get some global reach in video and music.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

kowenicki said:
Pretty bad journalism. Of course lumina sales dropped last qtr. The buzz around the very early announcement of the new phones and whole new operating system for those phones will do that. Nokia is turning things round. You watch.

I just had a surreal feeling of Déjà vu coupled with an overwhelming sense of irony seeing this post come from you, like for a split second I was trapped inside an M. Night Shyamalan movie lol



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famousringo said:
dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:

...


The market research analysts have uniformly said that msft will keep about five percent market share for smartphones but get around twenty percent for tablets.  

I'd be prepared to bet on the reverse.


Ok, and why is that?

Apple already has tablets completely locked down. When making software, developers only consider the iPad.

Phones are much more in flux because they're already porting to Android as well. The build quality and integration of the new HTCs and Lumias are superior in some ways to Android and iPhones, whereas with the Surface it's not better than anything that already exists.

Fundamentally I think people don't want to use Windows on a tablet, even with shiny Metro.

The analysts are thinking that because there are a lot of makers of RT/Pro tablets that it will succeed. Actually I think MS will universally undercut them all so only Surface is viable, and then I don't see actually 1 in 5 people outright choosing a Surface.


Ok, well apple has been steadily dropping market sharesince the beginning and now, is down to about 50%.  I can't call that a lock on the tablet market, it's still anybody's game.  And Microsoft is ossibly just using the surface as a flagship device, to show off the OS more than to dominate the market.


Marketshare is not so steadily declining, actually. Apple's share dipped down to 53% last holiday quarter with the launch of the Fire, but Amazon's position quickly collapsed and Apple clawed back up to 65% in the following two quarters. Now it's back down to 50% on new Fires and the Nexus 7 just prior to the holidays, but this time Apple has a new product launch and a refresh of its own to counter, with Windows RT playing the dark horse. Are these new tablets going to stick, or are they going to burn out after the burst of launch enthusiasm?

Things are very volatile, but if anybody's going to threaten Apple, they need to do more than just ship a bunch of units into the channel at discount prices. They need to move content. Microsoft needs to attract developers, Google needs to pay its developers and expand its content portfolio (difficult to do when its entire business model is based on the commoditization of content), and Amazon needs to get some global reach in video and music.


If anybody's going to threaten apple?  The analysts have it predicted that android will be doing this soon enough, in a year or two in fact. This isn't a great article but the opinion is all over the net, and it doesn't look great for apple if they want to have the highest market share.  Luckily though, apple is a very high margin company, and they dont need all that much market share to bring in a lot of profit.

http://gantdaily.com/2012/11/13/android-tablets-will-dethrone-the-ipad-off-its-tablet-throne-according-to-analyst/



dallas said:



If anybody's going to threaten apple?  The analysts have it predicted that android will be doing this soon enough, in a year or two in fact. This isn't a great article but the opinion is all over the net, and it doesn't look great for apple if they want to have the highest market share.  Luckily though, apple is a very high margin company, and they dont need all that much market share to bring in a lot of profit.

http://gantdaily.com/2012/11/13/android-tablets-will-dethrone-the-ipad-off-its-tablet-throne-according-to-analyst/


Marketshare is treated as an end in itself, but in actuality it never has been. It's a means to market control, a way to ensure good product support,  distribution and economies of scale. Apple already has better support, distribution and economies of scale than any of their tablet rivals, and they've never felt the need to control the market, only their own destiny. Nothing that a competitor can do will destroy Apple's retail chain, and a dozen competing OEMs releasing new models every month can't beat Apple's scale, so that leaves product support as the only angle where attacking Apple's tablet position is even possible. But rivals only have pieces of the puzzle, and I don't think they're going to form Voltron any time soon.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

Sure, but the marketplace is changing, that is without a doubt. Whereas before apple basically controlled the market, they will now have to share larger and larger portions of it with android. I know that Apple can always pull something out of their hat, but it's going to be pretty hard to overcome this one. And while I said previously that Apple has always done well with a business model that doesn't require a large amount of marketshare, this and apple's recent slide shows that they probably aren't going to be a high flying stock forever.

That's just fine with me, I p[ersonally dont like the condescending looks that the apple people give, when you're just not cool enough haha.



I think the disparity in the attitude between this article and the more positive one in the other thread is exactly why I don't take any form of journalism seriously.

To be on topic though, I'll be looking into a 920 for my birthday unless Microsoft announce their own line of phones.



I can't wait to get my hands on lumia 920!



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(