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Forums - Sony Discussion - Prof predictsPlaystation Now over 15 months ago

I was having a chat with my friend FrankenFran,

and I was telling him "man, I'm getting really nervous about the ps4. There haven't been any news releases about ps4 dev kits, and nextbox ones have been out for around a year or so. This means that the ps4 won't likely be released until sometime in 2014".

To this he had a really interesting reply, which I'll summarize and expound for you.

Think about it like this. Everything Sony has been doing recently supports a ps4 being released on time, it's just not in the form that we're used to. Look at their moves with purchasing Gaikai. Look at their expansion of Gaikai onto multiple platforms, ios, android, pc...even XBOX. Look at their cooperation with Valve and Gabe Newell. Why on earth would Sony open up their online system to work alongside valve with portal 2 crossplay?

The theory is that Sony approached Gabe a ways back and made clear their intentions for their future console. Sony would go online distribution, and they asked for Mr. Newell's help. (Maybe)

Everything makes so much sense from that standpoint.

1) Cuts out the middleman gamestop, removes a big part of their revenue problem, used games. Will be able to offer games at a reduced rate. Have 'steam' sales
2) Allows them to save on next gen hardware. They don't have to be cutting edge, because the cloud will do all the work.
3) Anti-piracy straight from the server. Of course, there will always be hacks and pirate servers.
4) Allows them to focus more on their content.
5) Allows them exclusive ability to go third party without really going third party. They can put their high content games on ios, android, EVEN XBOX and WiiU, while the reverse cannot happen.
6) Gives them a transition back into their pc business, which Kaz said was a major component, also their phone and pad business.
7) Saves on all major secondary costs such as shipping, boxing, distribution, storage
8) This can all be done straight from their current hardware. No need to improve. Which means, if 360 makes major upgrades, it will be by itself, while ps3 and wiiU are able to run similar quality levels, making those two the major multiplat and base console devs choose over the fledgling 720.
9) Full backwards compatibility spanning all their systems.

 

Anyhoo, to summarize. I'm not expecting to see any huge hardware from sony for the ps4. I believe we'll see something similar to Onlive in the Orbis. We may eventually see a new fully fledged console out at some point, but the point is that they may not need to improve on the ps3 very much. A console with say a 20% power boost over ps3, that can use the vita in a similar setup to wiiU and upgrade all current ps3 offerings would be ideal. In this way, they can still sell boxed games for offline play, people looking to maximize responsiveness/own/collect/whatever, while simultaneously being able to offer a 'high-res' version of their game over the same console through the cloud.

 

EDIT on 1/8/2014:

Looks like sony did everything I predicted. They went with a minimal upgrade to keep costs and price down, and developed PS NOW.



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Look they already said "the machine" as they call it, was having games developed on it. They said this during e3 in an interview so I don't know why everyone is saying it isn't coming next year. Just because they didn't sell a dev kit online doesn't mean people don't have their hands on it. I figure they announce it at CES for a fall release and really get the hype train rolling at E3 with price and games shown off. WiiU has shown what the tradition of showing a next gen console before Christmas can do and Sony already basically did this with vita (I know vita sales suck but I don't think that's a result of their announcement schedule or lack of hype)




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers

I dont see how that proves what i said wrong.
Developers are the ones who claim that the dev kits are out. It has nothing to do with "selling a dev kit online".
A dev will say we're working on a ps4 game it looks fantastic. Other devs will instead announce that theyve received a dev kit.
If dev kits are out, there must be a very strict NDA otherwise we would have heard something. And a very strict nda means theyre up to something, theoretically.



Also if you read the op you would see that o expect a modestly better ps3 to function as the offline.



Uhhhhhh NO.
Cloud Gaming is nowhere near advanced enough for it to be mainstream.

Internet Speeds aren't fast/affordable enough for most people. Bandwidth caps are a HUGE problem for cloud gaming. Besides why would you want to stream let's say God of War 4 each time you want to play it, enduring that lag and wasting so much bandwidth, when you could just download it from PSN straight to your PS4? Think about that.

The only thing I can see cloud gaming being good for is mobile games.



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@vgking
Hence why i said there would likely be a standalone unit.
do people read anymore?

Also, sure maybe there is problems with cloud gaming at the moment, but whatabout in 2 years when ps4 would be expected?



interesting. i think the games being released by Sony are apart of that investment as well. your friend may be on to something.

sup profoo



Lol hey mdj.
it makes a lot of sense.
Their recent history of opening up their online, the minis, buying gaikai.
I wouldnt be surprised if they just let ms release a powerful system, ensuring that they overshoot the market.



theprof00 said:
@vgking
Hence why i said there would likely be a standalone unit.
do people read anymore?

Also, sure maybe there is problems with cloud gaming at the moment, but whatabout in 2 years when ps4 would be expected?

Lol, if you really think that in 2 years, cloud gaming will be profitable or possible (with internet being slow, bandwith cap, etc) then you will most likely be very disapointed. I see cloud gaming taking over maybe in 10years, but nothing less. And definetly not in 2 years.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

In previous threads i could say out of rashness that maybe people dont read.
this time however, it is assured.
Bnji, i said they would likely and i would expect, a standalone console with a slight upgrade of 20%. That is almost a direct quote not only in the op, but in the very post you quoted.

As i said, i would expect a small boost to stay in line with the wiiU thereby helping make them the development consoles. Nintendo predicts that consoles will overshoot the market by being too strong thereby expensive. Ps4 could use a minimal upgrade to ram and processing to stay in line with wiiu will simultaneously being able to offer high res versions of the games through vloud.cloud. its right there in the op.