I disagree. I don't own a Vita, but I'm fairly certain it will sell more than 20m in ten years time. It's only been out 7 months in America/West Market and has sold 3m. Let's say it sales 5m total in its first year, multiply that by ten and you're already at 50m, and that's just a rough estimate.

This doesn't include things like price cuts and the eventual Vita remodels that will boost sales somewhat. So it should be able to sale 20m by year five or six.

So for you, the dreamcast sold 50 million too, since it's tracking better than the Vita.

That's not how this works.

Wasn't the dreamcast discontinued though?  So isn't that kind of an unfair example?  It may not really be how it works, but 20m is still quite a low amount for 10 years if they continue to support it throughout its lifetime.

I hope you did this on purpose.  Excellent!

Exactly. Selling like that it's not even assured it won't be discontinued.

BTW... the Gamecube wasn't discontinued so soon... and it's tracking better too - didn't reached 50 million or close.

Honestly its too early to tell. So far Vita is in rough shape and having a rocky start. But things like price cuts, remodels, and good software can totally change its performance.

So you might be right and you might be wrong but Im not picking a number at all yet as its very early in the consoles life. The scarier thing than hardware sales is its software performance. The few people who own Vita arent buying much software for it at all.

DS and PSP numbers are inflated also.

I can't even imagine the amount of sales that came due to piracy.
The day this happens for either 3DS or Vita numbers will soar

I definitely wasn't defending the 50m statement.  I was just defending the statement that at its current rate, if Sony decides to continue supporting (which they probably will) the Vita, it's unlikely it'll only sell 20m

I am leaning towards, between 35-45 million units LT, Vita will have a rather rough time during the first half of 2013, looking at the 3DS line up.
Feel free to correct me, as I do not have much knowledge on what the Vita will have in store by then, except for Soul Sacrifice.

I'm not sure what your point is. Anyways, the point is, the Vita will sale 20m within ten years because it has sold 3m within 7 months of NA release. I doubt the Vita will get discontinued due to Sony's stance and support of it (i.e they refuse to cut its price). Saying the Vita won't sale 20m in ten years, I mean you don't need to be a math major to see how wrong that sounds.