Examiner

Pre-orders for the Wii U sold out quickly and are currently only available as some store-specific bundles for the Basic model. A pair of game industry analysts provided comments Friday on how many Wii Us they expect to be available at launch and how Nintendo is managing the supply chain.

"Nintendo tends to manage the distribution channel to generate some sort of perception that its [system] is in demand," Colin Sebastian of R.W. Baird told CNBC. "I think seeing these sellouts on some of the websites is not a negative indication. It's either neutral or slightly positive, but it's not conclusive."

Meanwhile, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities estimates that Nintendo allocated only 300,000 to 400,000 Wii U consoles for pre-orders and may have not even begun mass manufacturing yet.

"We know no one has leaked any pictures of the Wii U supply line," Pachter said. "Those always leak. Someone always sneaks a camera into the facility. The fact that we haven't seen pictures means manufacturing hasn't started as of this week. So, if they're starting manufacturing in late September, the most they can commit to is 1.5 million units per month."

That leaves open the question of when Nintendo will start manufacturing the new console and how many will be available in stores when the Wii U launches in North America on November 18, Europe on November 30 and Japan on December 7.

The perception of scarcity and high demand with plentiful supplies is what Nintendo is shooting for though, according to Sebastian.

"What's most important for Nintendo is what happens at launch," says Sebastian. "You want a combination of as many units as possible, that are also perceived to be in short supply, but you don't want to under supply the market so people go out and by something else."

http://www.examiner.com/article/analysts-300k-to-400k-wii-us-for-pre-order-nintendo-managing-supply-chain

None of these guys are from Nintendo, have any facts, or have any kind of reliable track record for accurately predicting anything... especially Michael Pachter, the joke analyst of the video game sector.

Nintendo has a global launch coming up with US, Europe, Japan, and Australia all in quick succession.

They did the same for the Wii and were able to produce tons and tons of Wii's worldwide, but that demand still out paced supply.
They did the same with the 3DS with a March release and didn't have any problems with demand out pacing supply.

So whether or not people should take seriously possible shortages is all about predicting how much demand will exist. If it is at the Wii level, people will have hard time getting machines unless they aggressively chase next-in-line type deals. If it is at any other console/portable level in history... then the first few weeks might get tight but it will be fine after.

The Wii was just that extra ordinary in terms of instant & lasting surge in demand.

Pachter truly has no idea about Nintendo. Something always leaks? Really? Nintendo? Leaks? Ninjas? Seppuku?

Not everywhere yet, I could pre-order the day before yesterday for the first time. It differs per store, as they all need to make a deal about the prices with Nintendo of Europe. Prices are more or less the same everywhere, but it's a formality since it's officially up to retailers.

These analysts demonstrate that they are really bad at analysis ...

Nintendo is a remarkably conservative and cost-effective (read: cheap) company. They would much rather be forced to ramp up production in 2013 because they can't meet demand than have to scale back production because there is a surplus being built, and they will primarily be using large transport ships to ship Wii U systems to North America because it is dramatically cheaper than Air transport.

Being that it will take about 3 weeks to cross the Pacific, may take up to a week to clear customs, and another week to ship the systems throughout North America, Wii U systems will soon begin their long journey from their Japanese warehouse to your home. Since they will probably need a couple months of stockpiled production in addition to what they can manufacture to come close to handling the demand at launch/christmas, I would have expected them to begin manufacturing at the beginning of August.

I suspect the reason we haven't seen leaked images is that many leaked images from other product are 'officially' leaked to build hype; and that's not Nintendo's style

This.

Being sold out is not negative? Really? Colin?........Can i call you Col?
And about Patcher.....havent start the manufacturing? how can be that possible when we are 50 some days from launch?.......arent you aware of these bussines methodology?
god, how annoying these analyst are, REALLY

this is just america right? or are they including europe?

Well it would definetly be Nintendo manipulating pre-order's, GameStop/EB would be more than happy to take pre-orders for the second or third shipment of Wii U's if they could !

Well all we can do is wait. It could be

1. under supplyd: For getting news about shortages and showing how popular the system is ( even if it isnt)
2. or Nintendo could have enough Wii Us and the product will be really succesfull at launch

Anyway this holdiay will be intresting sales wise. But more intresting would be how succesfull the Wii U will be the first year.
Big preorders mean nothing. There are mostly the hardcore fans which preorder a console and buy it day one- so sales after a year are what makes console war intresting.
Wii U right now is very difficult to predict. On the other hand it has alot of games ( no one will deny that) but on the other site to many of this games are ports or multiplats. So how much will thoise games reflect sales of the console if you can get the same game for cheaper consoles? Will the gamers buy a Wii U fort Black Ops 2 when they have all friend son X Box or PS3?
Will Super mario Bros Wii U and Wii U Fit ( the only system sellers for that console at holiday in my eyes) be enough reason tpo buy the system?
Very difficult to predict.