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Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

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Mummelmann said:
Torillian said:

The first reply to JohnLucas in that thread is so perfect:

"Well that was a painfully empty message written in 7000 words."

The best part of it all for me is how he explained his lack of time for discussing these matters in here, he clearly has plenty of time to do it elsewhere (he does it on other sites as well), it appears that it has more to do with the fact that he was wrecked by people who actually took their time to dismantle his behemoth posts in here, so he doesn't want to come back.

Like I said though; around the time the NX rolls out, he'll be back with a vengeance, but he'll refuse to own up to his spectacular failure(s), yet again. He also had those "facts vs fiction" threads, where he refused to discuss the UNITY thread, stating that "well, that thread is locked, so we can't really discuss it, now can we?", convenient!

He has to come back, we need more crazy on these forums, most of the people here today are too tame...

What I love is he always finds some pattern in past generations and then makes it an ironclad rule that dictates what must happen in the future.  He's moved on from "the most powerful console in a generation has never won" to "the console that wins the most influential market (which he gets to define, how convenient) wins worldwide".  He can write as much as he wants about how Nintendo is amazing and is the boss of the industry throughout history, but until he realizes that a pattern of 6 or 7 does not make an ironclad rule then it'll always just be the ramblings of a superfan who wants to relive the glory days when the blind squirrel found the proverbial nut.  I remember how revered he was for that first prediction on Wii, and he should get credit for that, but I think his predictions since have shown that he just got lucky that for once Nintendo succeeded as much as he always thinks they will, not that he's some brilliant market analyst who can see into the future when others are blinded by Nintendo hate.  

 

Edit: just to toss it out there, patterns are useful, and can help you figure out what is most likely to happen when you have little else to go on, but when more prevelant information (like current sales numbers) shows you that the pattern is likely to be broken you should not think that fortunes will be reversed and go in your favorite company's favor just to maintain some pattern you found in previous generations.  



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2012 the year of crazy predictions and how some turn out to be true while others completely miss the mark. But those bumbs are fun to read



Torillian said:
Mummelmann said:

The best part of it all for me is how he explained his lack of time for discussing these matters in here, he clearly has plenty of time to do it elsewhere (he does it on other sites as well), it appears that it has more to do with the fact that he was wrecked by people who actually took their time to dismantle his behemoth posts in here, so he doesn't want to come back.

Like I said though; around the time the NX rolls out, he'll be back with a vengeance, but he'll refuse to own up to his spectacular failure(s), yet again. He also had those "facts vs fiction" threads, where he refused to discuss the UNITY thread, stating that "well, that thread is locked, so we can't really discuss it, now can we?", convenient!

He has to come back, we need more crazy on these forums, most of the people here today are too tame...

What I love is he always finds some pattern in past generations and then makes it an ironclad rule that dictates what must happen in the future.  He's moved on from "the most powerful console in a generation has never won" to "the console that wins the most influential market (which he gets to define, how convenient) wins worldwide".  He can write as much as he wants about how Nintendo is amazing and is the boss of the industry throughout history, but until he realizes that a pattern of 6 or 7 does not make an ironclad rule then it'll always just be the ramblings of a superfan who wants to relive the glory days when the blind squirrel found the proverbial nut.  I remember how revered he was for that first prediction on Wii, and he should get credit for that, but I think his predictions since have shown that he just got lucky that for once Nintendo succeeded as much as he always thinks they will, not that he's some brilliant market analyst who can see into the future when others are blinded by Nintendo hate.  

 

Edit: just to toss it out there, patterns are useful, and can help you figure out what is most likely to happen when you have little else to go on, but when more prevelant information (like current sales numbers) shows you that the pattern is likely to be broken you should not think that fortunes will be reversed and go in your favorite company's favor just to maintain some pattern you found in previous generations.  

Yeah, pattern are useful but the 7th and 8th generations have shown how changed the industry is. I'm fascinated by Lucas, I really am, I have sometimes thought he must be pulling some elaborate prank, but then I remember that he's never exposed himself as such and I doubt that anyone would have the energy and will to keep it up for over a decade. That leaves only one explanation; he believes what he's saying, or at least some variation of it, which makes him even more fascinating, for a person who is obviously quite intelligent and also fairly eloquent, he seems to be out of tune with a whole bunch of stuff, including many things on his favorite subject (gaming).

He knows history, but he has no idea how markets work, and he has even less of an idea how hardware works.

Waiting for that comeback and the 240 million lifetime sales for NX though!



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
Torillian said:

What I love is he always finds some pattern in past generations and then makes it an ironclad rule that dictates what must happen in the future. 

[...]

Yeah, pattern are useful but the 7th and 8th generations have shown how changed the industry is. I'm fascinated by Lucas, I really am

[...]

He knows history, but he has no idea how markets work, and he has even less of an idea how hardware works.

Waiting for that comeback and the 240 million lifetime sales for NX though!

WHAT? Just 240M? Are you a hater? Who pays you? Nadella or Kaz?    



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")

A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.

TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!

        

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Mummelmann said:

Yeah, pattern are useful but the 7th and 8th generations have shown how changed the industry is. I'm fascinated by Lucas, I really am

[...]

He knows history, but he has no idea how markets work, and he has even less of an idea how hardware works.

Waiting for that comeback and the 240 million lifetime sales for NX though!

WHAT? Just 240M? Are you a hater? Who pays you? Nadella or Kaz?    

Both, they also paid me by the word in the UNITY thread, so I'm basically retired now!



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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Prediction set the bar too high. With how popular mobile and pc gaming nowadays, 40m is a great achievement for any consoles/handhelds



DieAppleDie said:
Zero chances for it to sell under 50m

Damn, these predictions, it's marvelous.

It was obvious it wouldn't sell well. The 64 didn't, the gamecube too.

Only the Wii got huge sales because of casuals/hype, and this is NOT a public who stay, they're all on smartphones now.



When I go to "forums", this, THIS is somehow in the top threads. I use the buddy. Normally. Holy shit.



Chinese food for breakfast

 

Can anyone of the many people that predicted the Wii U would do far better explain their reasoning why they thought it would?



Would have been sweeter had this said 15 million.



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