Quantcast
Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

I think 40 million by holiday season 2014.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Around the Network
Salnax said:
I'd like to see why. So far, they seem to be making the right moves.


i'm basing it off of ancedocal evidence to be sure.  ..but what i'm not seeing is interest in the wii U for the "causuals" i know in my life.  "casual" in the context of this specific post means this:  owns a wii (and maybe a DS) but never bought any other video game system before.  i'm seeing no interest in anything gaming from them anymore. 

people like my mother who got a wii for wii fit but has since stopped playing.  i'm really really quite sure she's not coming back to gaming.  i just have a feeling that this (while ancedocal for sure) is going to the story for a lot of people the previously got a wii.

i don't think 40M is the right number...but a decent contraction from wii's numbers is my opinion.



superchunk said:
man-bear-pig said:

May I ask why?


It is already showing great game support and demand from consumers.

It will sell far more than 40m. I'm not sure how much yet as I kind want to see how it does first quarter 2013, but I'm think it will be in PS360 territory at the moment.


The demand from consumers is natural for a new home console from one of the big 3. Once all the huge Nintendo fans have bought one, I think sales will be quite poor, and that's when my prediction will start to come into effect. I don't think it'll grab the casuals lie the Wii did



NintendoPie said:
Fact: It'll sell more than 40 Million units.


That's not a fact...



kitler53 said:
Salnax said:
I'd like to see why. So far, they seem to be making the right moves.


i'm basing it off of ancedocal evidence to be sure.  ..but what i'm not seeing is interest in the wii U for the "causuals" i know in my life.  "casual" in the context of this specific post means this:  owns a wii (and maybe a DS) but never bought any other video game system before.  i'm seeing no interest in anything gaming from them anymore. 

people like my mother who got a wii for wii fit but has since stopped playing.  i'm really really quite sure she's not coming back to gaming.  i just have a feeling that this (while ancedocal for sure) is going to the story for a lot of people the previously got a wii.

i don't think 40M is the right number...but a decent contraction from wii's numbers is my opinion.


I think the importance of that kind of casual gamer for the Wii is overstated. Yes, millions of people bought the Wii who fit that definition, but a lot of the fanbase was the same "middlecore" audience the PS2 had. Hence, why games like Mario Kart Wii and NSMBWii sold so well. It couldn't have been just Nintendo die-hards; that group failed to get the GameCube much above 20 million.

I believe that Nintendo's Wii-based audience alone can't get them to their Wii heights, but they seem to be making efforts in other areas. For example, their publishing hardcore games like Ninja Gaiden 3 and Bayonetta 2. If they keep that up, they can capture some of the PS3/360 audience the same way the 360 captured a lot of the PS2's audience. That might not add up to 100 million Wii U's getting sold, but 100 million strikes me as far more likely than 40 million.



Love and tolerate.

Around the Network

I work retail and no exactly how insane pre-orders are right now.

And I assure you that you couldnt be more wrong



I think it will do 70 million at least. I think they will cut the price to $250 and $300 once the PS4 or the 720 arrive to the market and cut to $200 and $250 2 years after that. If they put the right software on it like NSMB U, Wii Fit U, Mario Kart U, Animal Crossing U, Smash Brothers U, an epic legend of zelda game and some good third party games and it can reach the $200 pricepoint at least 3-4 years after launch, I can see it doing 75-85 millions lifetime.



I think the Wii U will be the bestseller among the next gen, unless Microsoft or Sony has something up their sleeves beside Kinect 2/Move 2 and better graphics.

At the moment it seems that the Wii U already got Japan (with Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Mario, etc.) even before Xbox8 and PS4 arrive.

So I bet 70-80 Millions worldwide.

For Sony. This company is in a big financial crisis since six years that got worse from year to year. Sony could possible collapse in the next 1-3 years and the playstation brand will be history. If this scenario becomes reality the Wii U could reach 90-100 Mio.



BenVTrigger said:
I work retail and no exactly how insane pre-orders are right now.

And I assure you that you couldnt be more wrong


Ofcourse it's getting high pre-orders, it's a next-gen home consoles from Nintendo and Nintendo has millions of fans. Once all these fans have bought it though, I can't seeing it selling much more. As I said to superchunk, I don't think it'll have support from the millions of casuals who bought the Wii



man-bear-pig said:
DieAppleDie said:
Zero chances for it to sell under 50m


Anything is possible...

Sure, but the odds are heavily against it selling that little.  Heavily against it.

I look forward to reading your write up as to why you think it'll sell so little.