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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

Gamecube had a really better third party support than Wii U ( and a good exclusive support from 3rd party)



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

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Kane1389 said:
DanneSandin said:

What people seem to forget is the competition. Why isn't anybody understanding that Sony won't be able to make a major jump over the WiiU? Viper1 actually made this very clear in superchunk's VS thread. I'll quote a bit of it:

"The high end PS3 launched in Japan for ¥59,980 which was $558 in 2006 but is $766 today. So even if they dropped the PS4 launch price to, say, ¥39,980, that still makes it $510 today. So no matter what, provided the exchange doesn't rapidly move to weaken the Yen in the next year, Sony will either have to launch with a very large loss or reduce the capabilities of the system to launch at a more market friendly price. This is one of the reasons the 3DS launched at such a high price compared to the DS several years before. To hold the same margin of profit or loss, now requires a far higher foreign price than it did before.

And a $100 loss per console is far too much for them as a company now than it was back in 2006. In 2006, they were a financially sound comapny. That is not the case today. If they sold 10 million units at a $100 loss, that's a $1 billion loss to a company that can't handle taking on another billion dollar loss."

Clearly Sony won't be able to take a major leap next gen due to their financial situation, and due to the exchange rate. They might take a $50 hit for every console, but that's not nearly enough if they wanna blow the Wii U out of the waters.

And if Sony won't make a cutting edge machine, why would Microsoft? As far as we know, they'll probably bundle the console with Kinect 2.0, and they'd price such a bundle at about $399 - or $449 at the most. With the Kinect bundled at that price they won't be able to make a bleeding edge console. Sure they could take a $100 hit/console with a $449 price tag, but will that be enough of power packed in the box to dominate both PS4 and Wii U? Maybe.

But consider this then: If Xbox3 is waaaay more powerful than WiiStation4U (like how PS3 was to PS2), which platform(s) do you think the developers would make games for? It'll be cheaper to make games for WiiStation4U than for the cutting edge Xbox3, and there will probably be a bigger user base for WiiStation4U (2 consoles combined) rather than for the 1 Xbox3. Thus, Xbox3 would get up scaled ports from WiiStation4U - NOT taking advantage of all the power Xbox3 has - meaning, all games will look about as good on all consoles.

What's my point then? This:

If all games will look equally good on all the consoles (with only minor differences) and all consoles will therefore get the same 3rd party support. And thus, the winner of next gen will be determent by other factors, and that's why WiiU might win next gen. It all comes down to:

3rd party games (which they all will have)

1st party games (and we all know Nintendo dominates this category)

Unique features for each console (like the GamePad or Kinect 2.0)

And that's why WiiU won't sell less than 40m units. They'll have 3rd party support. They certainly have the 1st party titles. They have unique features, but it remains to see if they'll be enough. They could win this gen. I'm telling you; they could reach 120m sold WiiU's life time. At the very least they'll reach 60m sold units.


This post man...this fucking post :D

So...many...things...wrong xD

Yeah, I know... fuck... I'll just keep my mouth shut from here on! :P



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:
Kane1389 said:
DanneSandin said:

What people seem to forget is the competition. Why isn't anybody understanding that Sony won't be able to make a major jump over the WiiU? Viper1 actually made this very clear in superchunk's VS thread. I'll quote a bit of it:

"The high end PS3 launched in Japan for ¥59,980 which was $558 in 2006 but is $766 today. So even if they dropped the PS4 launch price to, say, ¥39,980, that still makes it $510 today. So no matter what, provided the exchange doesn't rapidly move to weaken the Yen in the next year, Sony will either have to launch with a very large loss or reduce the capabilities of the system to launch at a more market friendly price. This is one of the reasons the 3DS launched at such a high price compared to the DS several years before. To hold the same margin of profit or loss, now requires a far higher foreign price than it did before.

And a $100 loss per console is far too much for them as a company now than it was back in 2006. In 2006, they were a financially sound comapny. That is not the case today. If they sold 10 million units at a $100 loss, that's a $1 billion loss to a company that can't handle taking on another billion dollar loss."

Clearly Sony won't be able to take a major leap next gen due to their financial situation, and due to the exchange rate. They might take a $50 hit for every console, but that's not nearly enough if they wanna blow the Wii U out of the waters.

And if Sony won't make a cutting edge machine, why would Microsoft? As far as we know, they'll probably bundle the console with Kinect 2.0, and they'd price such a bundle at about $399 - or $449 at the most. With the Kinect bundled at that price they won't be able to make a bleeding edge console. Sure they could take a $100 hit/console with a $449 price tag, but will that be enough of power packed in the box to dominate both PS4 and Wii U? Maybe.

But consider this then: If Xbox3 is waaaay more powerful than WiiStation4U (like how PS3 was to PS2), which platform(s) do you think the developers would make games for? It'll be cheaper to make games for WiiStation4U than for the cutting edge Xbox3, and there will probably be a bigger user base for WiiStation4U (2 consoles combined) rather than for the 1 Xbox3. Thus, Xbox3 would get up scaled ports from WiiStation4U - NOT taking advantage of all the power Xbox3 has - meaning, all games will look about as good on all consoles.

What's my point then? This:

If all games will look equally good on all the consoles (with only minor differences) and all consoles will therefore get the same 3rd party support. And thus, the winner of next gen will be determent by other factors, and that's why WiiU might win next gen. It all comes down to:

3rd party games (which they all will have)

1st party games (and we all know Nintendo dominates this category)

Unique features for each console (like the GamePad or Kinect 2.0)

And that's why WiiU won't sell less than 40m units. They'll have 3rd party support. They certainly have the 1st party titles. They have unique features, but it remains to see if they'll be enough. They could win this gen. I'm telling you; they could reach 120m sold WiiU's life time. At the very least they'll reach 60m sold units.


This post man...this fucking post :D

So...many...things...wrong xD

Yeah, I know... fuck... I'll just keep my mouth shut from here on! :P


I didnt mean to take a jab at you, its just that my inner fanboy found that post fascinating



Kane1389 said:
DanneSandin said:
Kane1389 said:


This post man...this fucking post :D

So...many...things...wrong xD

Yeah, I know... fuck... I'll just keep my mouth shut from here on! :P


I didnt mean to take a jab at you, its just that my inner fanboy found that post fascinating

Naaw, it's cool! It's just that this is the second bump in a short time where I, somewhere in the thread, has made some pretty stupid comment(s) and things to come. The thread before this one that got bumped, I said that Sonic Lost Worlds looked/would be better than SM3DW... And we all know how that turned out ;)

And now this post... At the time it sounedn... logical :P



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:
Kane1389 said:
DanneSandin said:

What people seem to forget is the competition. Why isn't anybody understanding that Sony won't be able to make a major jump over the WiiU? Viper1 actually made this very clear in superchunk's VS thread. I'll quote a bit of it:

"The high end PS3 launched in Japan for ¥59,980 which was $558 in 2006 but is $766 today. So even if they dropped the PS4 launch price to, say, ¥39,980, that still makes it $510 today. So no matter what, provided the exchange doesn't rapidly move to weaken the Yen in the next year, Sony will either have to launch with a very large loss or reduce the capabilities of the system to launch at a more market friendly price. This is one of the reasons the 3DS launched at such a high price compared to the DS several years before. To hold the same margin of profit or loss, now requires a far higher foreign price than it did before.

And a $100 loss per console is far too much for them as a company now than it was back in 2006. In 2006, they were a financially sound comapny. That is not the case today. If they sold 10 million units at a $100 loss, that's a $1 billion loss to a company that can't handle taking on another billion dollar loss."

Clearly Sony won't be able to take a major leap next gen due to their financial situation, and due to the exchange rate. They might take a $50 hit for every console, but that's not nearly enough if they wanna blow the Wii U out of the waters.

And if Sony won't make a cutting edge machine, why would Microsoft? As far as we know, they'll probably bundle the console with Kinect 2.0, and they'd price such a bundle at about $399 - or $449 at the most. With the Kinect bundled at that price they won't be able to make a bleeding edge console. Sure they could take a $100 hit/console with a $449 price tag, but will that be enough of power packed in the box to dominate both PS4 and Wii U? Maybe.

But consider this then: If Xbox3 is waaaay more powerful than WiiStation4U (like how PS3 was to PS2), which platform(s) do you think the developers would make games for? It'll be cheaper to make games for WiiStation4U than for the cutting edge Xbox3, and there will probably be a bigger user base for WiiStation4U (2 consoles combined) rather than for the 1 Xbox3. Thus, Xbox3 would get up scaled ports from WiiStation4U - NOT taking advantage of all the power Xbox3 has - meaning, all games will look about as good on all consoles.

What's my point then? This:

If all games will look equally good on all the consoles (with only minor differences) and all consoles will therefore get the same 3rd party support. And thus, the winner of next gen will be determent by other factors, and that's why WiiU might win next gen. It all comes down to:

3rd party games (which they all will have)

1st party games (and we all know Nintendo dominates this category)

Unique features for each console (like the GamePad or Kinect 2.0)

And that's why WiiU won't sell less than 40m units. They'll have 3rd party support. They certainly have the 1st party titles. They have unique features, but it remains to see if they'll be enough. They could win this gen. I'm telling you; they could reach 120m sold WiiU's life time. At the very least they'll reach 60m sold units.


This post man...this fucking post :D

So...many...things...wrong xD

Yeah, I know... fuck... I'll just keep my mouth shut from here on! :P

That is a very gracious reaction!

I think everyone should take past predictions and statements as signs of a market and industry in change, most of all. It is becoming harder and harder to foresee what's around the corner, with all the divergents in the gaming industry and market today its become a haphazard clusterf*** to keep track of and anyone can get lost.

I had no idea 2010 and onwards would be as chaotic and full or surprises as it turned out. No matter what happens, these are exciting times be a member on this site and it has never been more informative to keep track of console sales!



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To be honest, I think if you were to waive a magic wand to Nintendo's execs and tell them they can choose: 40 million lifetime OR continue normally, they will probably take the 40 million. It is sad, as I greatly enjoy the console, but it is becoming increasingly clear to me that gamers are not interested in new ideas - they just want the same old in higher resolution, more explosions and more frames per second.



Licence said:

To be honest, I think if you were to waive a magic wand to Nintendo's execs and tell them they can choose: 40 million lifetime OR continue normally, they will probably take the 40 million. It is sad, as I greatly enjoy the console, but it is becoming increasingly clear to me that gamers are not interested in new ideas - they just want the same old in higher resolution, more explosions and more frames per second.

Awww, how stupid and unfair the world is, right? Refusing to play on tablet controllers and the equivalent to 2005 hardware. Here, take a snot-rag.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Licence said:

To be honest, I think if you were to waive a magic wand to Nintendo's execs and tell them they can choose: 40 million lifetime OR continue normally, they will probably take the 40 million. It is sad, as I greatly enjoy the console, but it is becoming increasingly clear to me that gamers are not interested in new ideas - they just want the same old in higher resolution, more explosions and more frames per second.

Awww, how stupid and unfair the world is, right? Refusing to play on tablet controllers and the equivalent to 2005 hardware. Here, take a snot-rag.


... proving my point to a T.



Mummelmann said:
DanneSandin said:
Kane1389 said:


This post man...this fucking post :D

So...many...things...wrong xD

Yeah, I know... fuck... I'll just keep my mouth shut from here on! :P

That is a very gracious reaction!

Well, thank you! I think... :P

I think everyone should take past predictions and statements as signs of a market and industry in change, most of all. It is becoming harder and harder to foresee what's around the corner, with all the divergents in the gaming industry and market today its become a haphazard clusterf*** to keep track of and anyone can get lost.

I had no idea 2010 and onwards would be as chaotic and full or surprises as it turned out. No matter what happens, these are exciting times be a member on this site and it has never been more informative to keep track of console sales!

I have to agree with your whole post; this next gen is very unpredictable! We have no idea whether or not Apple (or someone else, for that matter) will make a console, and/or how that will impact the market. And how will the SteamMachine effect the industry? It's a very interesting time indeed.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

I still like to think some people who got the Wii will upgrade to Wii U, and that alone could enable the Wii U to reach 40m. If not that, then the broader game library in comparison to N64/GC should help it beat those consoles.