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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

happydolphin said:
man-bear-pig said:
the_dengle said:
I agree, no way can Wii U sell 40 mil in Japan. Not even Monster Hunter can do that. 30 mil in Japan at most. Definitely not more than 35 mil. Maybe, absolutely not more than 37 mil in Japan alone, no ifs ands or buts.


Wut?

He's basically saying that it will destroy your prediction considering it will sell about the number you predicted in Japan alone. And I agree with him. As someone else put it, for japan, this is like the most deadly "handheld" ever made.

My prediction for the WiiU is 150M.

What? Really?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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DanneSandin said:
happydolphin said:

He's basically saying that it will destroy your prediction considering it will sell about the number you predicted in Japan alone. And I agree with him. As someone else put it, for japan, this is like the most deadly "handheld" ever made.

My prediction for the WiiU is 150M.

What? Really?

I think so :) This will be a solid system, taking cues from the DS line and the Gamecube in one complete package. It also serves other customer needs like streaming television and things customers are looking for (I know I am).

It'll be big.



happydolphin said:
DanneSandin said:
happydolphin said:

He's basically saying that it will destroy your prediction considering it will sell about the number you predicted in Japan alone. And I agree with him. As someone else put it, for japan, this is like the most deadly "handheld" ever made.

My prediction for the WiiU is 150M.

What? Really?

I think so :) This will be a solid system, taking cues from the DS line and the Gamecube in one complete package. It also serves other customer needs like streaming television and things customers are looking for (I know I am).

It'll be big.

It COULD be big. But that really depends on how much MSony will fuck up... I don't think it'll get there unless it gets some help from the failures of PS720. You can bet that MSony will take what Nintendo does and make it better.

I really like TVii - but that'll only be available in NA, nowhere else. I'd like it to come in EU as well, but that'll take at least2 years...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:

It COULD be big. But that really depends on how much MSony will fuck up... I don't think it'll get there unless it gets some help from the failures of PS720. You can bet that MSony will take what Nintendo does and make it better.

I really like TVii - but that'll only be available in NA, nowhere else. I'd like it to come in EU as well, but that'll take at least2 years...

Mm, you're right about TVii in Europe. There is one thing though, it seems like Europe likes the stylus games. I'm an Art Academy fan and I can tell you they loved it there if we go by the chartz. I'll edit this with more in  a sec.



happydolphin said:
DanneSandin said:
happydolphin said:

He's basically saying that it will destroy your prediction considering it will sell about the number you predicted in Japan alone. And I agree with him. As someone else put it, for japan, this is like the most deadly "handheld" ever made.

My prediction for the WiiU is 150M.

What? Really?

I think so :) This will be a solid system, taking cues from the DS line and the Gamecube in one complete package. It also serves other customer needs like streaming television and things customers are looking for (I know I am).

It'll be big.

Yep, I feel so too.

Very solid launch line-up that caters to both the core and casual market, reasonably priced, Nintendo TVii, Miiverse,gamepad that brings it all together and next year we'll be seeing games like 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Monolith's game, etc. to continue momentum.

All Nintendo has to do now is get good marketing.

I find it hard to predict anything at the moment though, and maybe 150 might be a bit too optimistic at the moment. Who knows how competitively priced PS4/720 will be.



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magos2k7 said:

I'll just say that ALL 3 console manufacturers are going to find themselves in a pickle as they enter the "next generation". ALL of the growth is going on in the tablet and smart phone gaming market. Big-budget systems tethered to televisions are going to become just a small part of an overall market.


I'm actually of the complete opposite perspective ...

In the mid to late 1990s many analysts were predicting the end of console gaming because home computers were becomming ubiquitous. The cost reductions seen in hardware meant that everyone could buy an inexpensive system that was very powerful, and if people were already going to buy systems to read email and surf the internet they would likely just play games on them aswell.

The reason this never happened is that, while there were many companies dedicated to making great games for the PC, there was no-one who focused on making the gaming experience better for the PC. As a result the PC stagnated and there was little to excite the average person to play games on it.

5 years from now the tablet or smartphone you buy will give you (essentially) the exact same gaming experience as the one you buy today while the handheld and console gaming systems will likely have taken a (hopefully gigantic) step forward to produce better games. 5 years after that the tablet and smartphone you buy will give you (essentially) the same gaming experience as the one you bought previously while the handheld and console gaming systems will have taken another (hopefully gigantic) step forward to produce better games.

 

 

Right now handhelds and consoles produce better experiences that smartphones and tablets, and as time goes on the difference between the two is only going to get more dramatic.



Wow, THIS is IRONIC.

Back in late '06 or early '07 a poster named John Lucas predicted Wii would sell 20m in 2007 and win the generation - easily. At that time everyone on this site thought he was A) crazy, B) a joke or C) the ultimate deluted Nintendo fan. I and one other member were the only people who agreed and I explained in detail why. But people then couldn't see past their own little world of core gaming. The idea of soccer moms and elderly folks buying a Wii was beyond their imagination. I got it. I predicted Wii would succeed when vertually no one else did.

Now today, I am the lone voice saying Man-Bear-Pig is RIGHT.

Anyone who's seen my posts knows I've been calling the WiiU the anti-thesis of the Wii. What Wii did right the WiiU is doing WRONG.

Nintendo understood that dual analog controller was what was keeping the general public from games. So they removed that limitation with the Wiimote. Now they have put it back in the gamepad. WTF?? Worse they added a touch screen. You might think that's a good idea, it's casual friendly, but it's a terrible idea because to a casual non-gamer, it now looks like a tablet controller. Tablets are cool! Except it's not a tablet. There's no apps. No free games. It's single touch. It can't go anywhere (outside the house). Can't do anything except play games and watch tv. So in comparison to a true tablet device the WiiU looks like a bad value. It's a value equation Nintendo can't win so they should never have put themselves into that equation. They should have made a better Wii.

Casuals love their Apples and Android devices and instead of offering an completely difference experience to pull them away from those devices, WiiU offers a comparible one. MISTAKE. Apple will kick their ass without lifting a finger to do so. Worse, multiple Android devices will be on the market this year with (removable) game controls which will compete directly with WiiU for that audience. They will have infinitely MORE games (not better...), FREE games, and be cheaper and do a whole lot more than play games. At it's current rate of power increase, ipads will be MORE powerful than WiiU in a year or two. WiiU looks like a poor value in comparison to the casual observer.

But... you say... WiiU will appeal to core. F--- that. Not going to happen. Japan maybe thanks to Dragon Quest X & Monster Hunter but home consoles are not big in Japan. Portables are. In western markets core will stick to their current gen systems - which plays all the same core games - HELLO! (Yeah, yeah, Bayonetta 2 - big whoop)

Besides, Gamecube had lots of core titles. Even had RE exclusive for a while. Had all the big Nintendo titles. 20m. It didn't work then, it won't work now either. The gamepad adds TOO LITTLE to draw anyone away from their current system/friends list.

Will it get ports when PS4/720 come out? People here think so, I'm not so sure. We have no idea what those systems will be capable of. Graphically, it may not look much different, but processing difference will be IMMENSE. Think Dead Rising: Chop 'til you Drop all over again. WiiU's ports will be vastly inferior. That's obvious.

So WiiU has little appeal to core. Little appeal to casual. That leaves Nintendo fans. They number around 10m-20m tops. Look at any core Nintendo title without casual appeal - 3D Mario, Zelda, Smash Bros, Metroid, Star Fox, F-Zero, Pikmin, Kirby (and most of those have some limited casual appeal) - none exceed 11m for a single game in sales - ever.

For casuals Wii is a distant memory. Apple is the story today (and even it is starting to get stale). WiiU won't change that. Having 'Wii' in the name won't help sales, much if any as Wii is yesterdays news. WiiU should have come out in 2010. It would have been huge then. It's 2012, almost 2013. WiiU is too little, too late in a market that's forever shifted by the Apple effect. It's a compromise system, some Frankenstein cross of Wii, Apple and 360, no one asked for and few will see value in.

IF, and that's still a big IF, MS can pull off what the rumours claim, they WILL capture the casual audience. Because they will offer that Apple/Android/WiiU/PS4 can't. A wholy new experience that everyone will want to experience for themselves. Nintendo had the market for a while but they lost it, unable to keep producing truly fresh experiences. I am highly skeptical MS will do as well as Nintendo did at appleasing the casual market, but the potential is there. Regardless of tech, 720 will be priced affordably - day one - with their 2-3 year contract plans. People are used to 3 year monthly contracts. They'll accept it here. MS will also keep their core base, and if Sony releases another stupidly expensive system while 720 is at $99 (with 3 year contract) MS will steal a lot of Sony's too (again).

I won't call WiiU a flop. But it doesn't have the imaginative fire Wii did (or 720 might). It will be much more like the Gamecube than the Wii but will benefit from an expanded market and residual afterglow of Wii. In that respect to say it will double Gamecube's numbers, means it will at least in part attact beyond the Nintendo core and little kids but that's still 40m. I expect less 'core' gamers to own it than Wii. Mainly because until 2010 Wii offered experiences PS360 could not so it made sense to own both a Wii and a HD system. That's simply not the case here. There's not even a convincing argument to buy a WiiU when you have a current gen system now.

I've no idea what Sony is doing. I wonder if Sony does. If they follow the same path as PSP, PS3, PSVita they will get the same results. Another last place finish. So let's hope they smarten up.

I'd say 40m is a fair estimate of WiiU lifetime sales. I also predict it will have a shorter lifespan (little over 4 years) but launching Wii3 two years after PS4 will allow Nintendo to (potentially) put out the last great home console we're ever likely to see and once again, come out king.



 

Gamerace said:

Wow, THIS is IRONIC.

Back in late '06 or early '07 a poster named John Lucas predicted Wii would sell 20m in 2007 and win the generation - easily. At that time everyone on this site thought he was A) crazy, B) a joke or C) the ultimate deluted Nintendo fan. I and one other member were the only people who agreed and I explained in detail why. But people then couldn't see past their own little world of core gaming. The idea of soccer moms and elderly folks buying a Wii was beyond their imagination. I got it. I predicted Wii would succeed when vertually no one else did.

John Lucas was very much the ultimate deluded Nitendo fan. His first prediction turning out right went to his head and he started predicting impossible stuff like the Wii selling something like 100m unit by the end of 2008.



Signature goes here!

TruckOSaurus said:
Gamerace said:

Wow, THIS is IRONIC.

Back in late '06 or early '07 a poster named John Lucas predicted Wii would sell 20m in 2007 and win the generation - easily. At that time everyone on this site thought he was A) crazy, B) a joke or C) the ultimate deluted Nintendo fan. I and one other member were the only people who agreed and I explained in detail why. But people then couldn't see past their own little world of core gaming. The idea of soccer moms and elderly folks buying a Wii was beyond their imagination. I got it. I predicted Wii would succeed when vertually no one else did.

John Lucas was very much the ultimate deluded Nitendo fan. His first prediction turning out right went to his head and he started predicting impossible stuff like the Wii selling something like 100m unit by the end of 2008.

You are correct, but John was very eloquent and insightful in that prediction.  Records will show I disagreed with just about all of his following predictions.

Nevertheless Wii did sell 20m in 2007 and easily crushed the competition as I (we) predicted and explained why at the time.



 

Gamerace said:

Wow, THIS is IRONIC.

Back in late '06 or early '07 a poster named John Lucas predicted Wii would sell 20m in 2007 and win the generation - easily. At that time everyone on this site thought he was A) crazy, B) a joke or C) the ultimate deluted Nintendo fan. I and one other member were the only people who agreed and I explained in detail why. But people then couldn't see past their own little world of core gaming. The idea of soccer moms and elderly folks buying a Wii was beyond their imagination. I got it. I predicted Wii would succeed when vertually no one else did.

Now today, I am the lone voice saying Man-Bear-Pig is RIGHT.

Anyone who's seen my posts knows I've been calling the WiiU the anti-thesis of the Wii. What Wii did right the WiiU is doing WRONG.

Nintendo understood that dual analog controller was what was keeping the general public from games. So they removed that limitation with the Wiimote. Now they have put it back in the gamepad. WTF?? Worse they added a touch screen. You might think that's a good idea, it's casual friendly, but it's a terrible idea because to a casual non-gamer, it now looks like a tablet controller. Tablets are cool! Except it's not a tablet. There's no apps. No free games. It's single touch. It can't go anywhere (outside the house). Can't do anything except play games and watch tv. So in comparison to a true tablet device the WiiU looks like a bad value. It's a value equation Nintendo can't win so they should never have put themselves into that equation. They should have made a better Wii.

Casuals love their Apples and Android devices and instead of offering an completely difference experience to pull them away from those devices, WiiU offers a comparible one. MISTAKE. Apple will kick their ass without lifting a finger to do so. Worse, multiple Android devices will be on the market this year with (removable) game controls which will compete directly with WiiU for that audience. They will have infinitely MORE games (not better...), FREE games, and be cheaper and do a whole lot more than play games. At it's current rate of power increase, ipads will be MORE powerful than WiiU in a year or two. WiiU looks like a poor value in comparison to the casual observer.

But... you say... WiiU will appeal to core. F--- that. Not going to happen. Japan maybe thanks to Dragon Quest X & Monster Hunter but home consoles are not big in Japan. Portables are. In western markets core will stick to their current gen systems - which plays all the same core games - HELLO! (Yeah, yeah, Bayonetta 2 - big whoop)

Besides, Gamecube had lots of core titles. Even had RE exclusive for a while. Had all the big Nintendo titles. 20m. It didn't work then, it won't work now either. The gamepad adds TOO LITTLE to draw anyone away from their current system/friends list.

Will it get ports when PS4/720 come out? People here think so, I'm not so sure. We have no idea what those systems will be capable of. Graphically, it may not look much different, but processing difference will be IMMENSE. Think Dead Rising: Chop 'til you Drop all over again. WiiU's ports will be vastly inferior. That's obvious.

So WiiU has little appeal to core. Little appeal to casual. That leaves Nintendo fans. They number around 10m-20m tops. Look at any core Nintendo title without casual appeal - 3D Mario, Zelda, Smash Bros, Metroid, Star Fox, F-Zero, Pikmin, Kirby (and most of those have some limited casual appeal) - none exceed 11m for a single game in sales - ever.

For casuals Wii is a distant memory. Apple is the story today (and even it is starting to get stale). WiiU won't change that. Having 'Wii' in the name won't help sales, much if any as Wii is yesterdays news. WiiU should have come out in 2010. It would have been huge then. It's 2012, almost 2013. WiiU is too little, too late in a market that's forever shifted by the Apple effect. It's a compromise system, some Frankenstein cross of Wii, Apple and 360, no one asked for and few will see value in.

IF, and that's still a big IF, MS can pull off what the rumours claim, they WILL capture the casual audience. Because they will offer that Apple/Android/WiiU/PS4 can't. A wholy new experience that everyone will want to experience for themselves. Nintendo had the market for a while but they lost it, unable to keep producing truly fresh experiences. I am highly skeptical MS will do as well as Nintendo did at appleasing the casual market, but the potential is there. Regardless of tech, 720 will be priced affordably - day one - with their 2-3 year contract plans. People are used to 3 year monthly contracts. They'll accept it here. MS will also keep their core base, and if Sony releases another stupidly expensive system while 720 is at $99 (with 3 year contract) MS will steal a lot of Sony's too (again).

I won't call WiiU a flop. But it doesn't have the imaginative fire Wii did (or 720 might). It will be much more like the Gamecube than the Wii but will benefit from an expanded market and residual afterglow of Wii. In that respect to say it will double Gamecube's numbers, means it will at least in part attact beyond the Nintendo core and little kids but that's still 40m. I expect less 'core' gamers to own it than Wii. Mainly because until 2010 Wii offered experiences PS360 could not so it made sense to own both a Wii and a HD system. That's simply not the case here. There's not even a convincing argument to buy a WiiU when you have a current gen system now.

I've no idea what Sony is doing. I wonder if Sony does. If they follow the same path as PSP, PS3, PSVita they will get the same results. Another last place finish. So let's hope they smarten up.

I'd say 40m is a fair estimate of WiiU lifetime sales. I also predict it will have a shorter lifespan (little over 4 years) but launching Wii3 two years after PS4 will allow Nintendo to (potentially) put out the last great home console we're ever likely to see and once again, come out king.


*starts slow clap*

Great post.