The Wii U looks impressive and it will have around a 12 to 18 month head start on PS4 and XBox 720. Wii U will sell between 80 to 100 million console systems.
I think the Wii U will crack 40 million within 3 years. Say two and a half years for 40 million. Jumping the competition by 12 to 18 months, affordable launch price for Wii U and building an insurmountable lead that will not be pulled back.
Next generation may well be a repeat of this generation. PS4 and Next Box both sell over 70 million providing excellent competition but Wii Us lower price more attractive to more buyers will ultimately help it win 8th generation.
Can the PS4 or XBox 360 pull back a 20 million+ sales gap?
Not sure about under 40, but I don't think it will be as much of a success as many think it will be.
kitler53 said:
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yeah but they're (so-called) 'casuals' for a reason...ie they're dumbasses when it comes to video games...they don't follow forums or look up game news etc so they probably have little or no clue this machine even exists yet...and I doubt they knew much about the wii 3 months before it was released either.
I'm not saying they'll rush out to buy the wii u, but I'm saying lack of interest from the casual crowd doesn't necessarily amount to anything at this point as the casuals are often slow to catch on...er...cos they're casual.
Salnax said:
1. The large number of ports and multiplat releases seemingly confirms that 3rd parties are taking the Wii U seriously, something that previously was up in the air. We did not know if Call of Duty, the biggest multiplat franchise at the moment, was even coming to the Wii U! The fact that it, Assassin's Creed, Aliens, and all those other multiplat games, even the late ones like Mass Effect 3 and Batman: Arkham City, suggests that 3rd parties are at least willing to test the waters, something many never did for the Wii. 2. The existence of 3rd party exclusives, such as Rayman and ZombiU, suggest that 3rd parties will actually make use of the system's features. ZombiU in particular, which is being bundled in Europe, looks like the first game to prove what the Wii U can do, while also breathing new life into the genre to boot. 3. Nintendo, in addition to their own usual fare, seems to be trying to win back the hardcore gamer, as evidenced by their adoption of the Bayonetta franchise and their publishing of LEGO City and Ninja Gaiden 3. Plus, the new Mario, Mii, and Pikmin games have been looking better and better. 4. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter are the strongest non-Nintendo franchises in Japan, proportionately similar to the strength of Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto in the West. Their coming to the Wii U early on, even as ports, suggests that the system will have an easy time establishing dominance there. At very least, Japanese gamers will have a more reasons to pick up Wii Us A lot of the games are not system sellers and are honestly being overhyped (Pikmin 3 and the LEGO game come to mind), but are solid additions to an increasingly impressive library. Plus, it's worth noting that most of the games announced so far are launch window titles. These eras are usually poor, especially for recent Nintendo systems. The fact that there is such a variety of quality content makes the Wii U look more like a purchase you won't regret making quickly. |
I agree with the four points, and want to add some more:
5. While many of the named titles are no system-sellers, the lineup includes some: NSMBU, COD, Just Dance, Wii Fit and MH for Japan at least. The Wii basically had Wii Sports as system-seller. That are 4 global system-sellers against one on the Wii. Probably Wii Sports was a better system-seller as any of these alone, but together it will work.
6. And even if no system-sellers, the named franchises can sell 1 million and more as often proofed. That is no system-seller material, but it is a big game without a doubt. As you can see with Vita, such big games can boost the system for some weeks. Now add the boost of big games like Dragon Quest, Rayman, Lego City, Aliens, Tekken, Assassins Creed, Pikmin, Fifa, Madden, Scribblenauts and Skylanders. That are 11 titles, that are surely from big franchises. Also keep in mind, that many people want 3-5 games, before deciding for a system. With that much big titles, the probability for that happening is increased.
7. The Wii had problems to fill some genres. If a genre is left out at launch, it is much harder. The Wii had only few shooters, WiiU has already COD. The Wii had no fighter except Smash Bros, WiiU already has Tekken. I don't know how the NInja Gaiden genre is named, but the Wii didn't had that either. I think that is the most important point of the launch-lineup: it already covers many different genres. That makes it much more probable, that more in this area will follow.
8. Also some good-looking new IPs fill the lineup: ZombiU, TankTankTank and Nintendoland. Given, the same was the case with Wii and Red Steel, Rayman Raving Rabbids, Wii Sports and Wii Play. But it is a plus that will potentially bring some more customers.
Firstly, how long do you expect the Wii U to be around, if it will sell only 40 million in it's lifetime.
I expect the Wii U to be sold until at least 2020, in that time it will easily beat 40 million. However, it is not likely to beat the Wii's 96 million sold but it will beat the NES (2nd best selling Nintendo home console) sales at 60 million at least
Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)
'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin
Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018
Well depends what Microsoft and Sony has to offer next gen
Depends how much sales they can steal away
Depends how much there consoels cost
Depends what tehy have as laucnh games
Depends how much sales games like Assassins creed 3 and Black Ops 2 really can make if it release on the other consoles and get advertisised on the other consoles heavy (Assassins Creed 3 PS3 Advertising, Black Ops 20X Box 360 advertising)
Depends how much portet games ( Batman, Darksiders, mass Effect, Tekken Tag 2) convined people buy to buy the system
Depends when Sony and Microsoft release there systems
What do i want to say. At this rate it is very difficult to give any prediction. Before the system not released and we can not see how much it sell in like to say the first year on the market and we dont knwo what the competition has to offer any prediction let it be in the low end or the high end is just stupid.Lets wait and drink tea before making such predictions.
when the successors to 360 and ps3 eventually arrive, I'm fairly certain they'll have much higher pricetags (if previous generations are anything to go by)
i think the typical, unbiased, consumer will more likely pick the cheapest option over grunt power...we're living in times where the 'best' graphics aren't necessarily what the people want (outside of the so-called, self proclaimed hard ass hardcore)...
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