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Forums - Sales Discussion - I think the 720 and PS4 will fail sales wise if there is no hook

_crazy_man_ on 10 September 2012
duckypwns said:
_crazy_man_ said:
 

I was saying 2+ years.  Of course your PC will be fine if its 1 1/2 old.  The first PC I built was 2009 for $1,200.  This year It needed to be upgraded (new OS, HD, and GPU) and now I should be good (minus a motherboard and CPU upgrade) for 2-3 more years.

When you said that MS/SOny had change that plan by making super expensive consoles, that really only applies to Sony, $400 was a bit high but nothing compared to the $600 that was the PS3. 

$400 is still way too expensive for a console. That would be like saying if there was a $1000 console released in generation 7, suddenly Sony's would be ok.

For the 2005 market (also considering what the 360 was offering), a $400 console wasn't "wtf expensive".

Now if you release a $400 console in today's market........



NNID: crazy_man

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maverick40 on 11 September 2012
HappySqurriel said:
maverick40 said:
They will sell better than the wii u, that is for sure.


Based on what?

We don't even know what the PS4 or 'XBox 720' will be or how the Wii U will sell ...

Two years from now we could see a home console market that is similar to the handheld market today, with Nintendo having a less powerful but less expensive system with a built in 'gimick' that launched earlier outselling more powerful systems by a wide margin.


Based on the fact that the Nintendo are launching their Next gen console in less than two months and there is zero hype, no price tag, no launch line up,no info regarding nintendo network. Nobody has any clue what the Wii U is and the casuals will think it is an add-on to the Wii. 



SunofKratos on 11 September 2012

At happy Squirrel:

1.The Wii sold more than the pS2 yearly because the pS2 is over 10 years old right know. But why do the casuals by the Wii? Because it always was the cheapest console on the market. That and the fact that it offers casual games.

2. The 800 M games the Wii sold isnt really a good argument. How many games of the 800 M units sold a bundled with a Wii or the Wii-Moote etc.
Games like Wii Sports, mario Kart Wii, Super Mario Bros Wii just to name a few are bundled like hell.
So this make your 800 M argument a little bit invalid. How many units have kinect Adventures sold when it doesnt get bundled with every kinect system out there.
And believe me there are many guys which have a Wii for 2 or 3 games and thats all.

3. Bringing the 3ds into this conversation has nothing do to with the WiiU and i tell you why

- handhelds are a different thema- you compare apples with tomatoes. Nintendo produce handhelds for how long? Nintendo always was the Number 1 when it comes to handhelds. The first step into this market came from Sony with the PSP. You better compare home consoles with other home consoles. And the only home console where Nintendo really shine was the Wii. Nintendo 64 was mildly succesfull and the Game Cube was a flopp.

- i do not need to remember you that the Nintendo 3ds need a big price cut aftzer a few monts, a new design plus it already realeased three Mario Games right know to get those numbers it has right know and yet it still managed to sell Ok in EU and US compared to the DS.

- i do not need to remember you that the Game Cube also has games like
Super Mario Sunshine, Luigis Mansion, Paper mario, Mario Kart, Mario Party, Pikmin, Super Smash bros, Pokemon, Animal Crossing and yet it didnt managed to get Number 1. So you see even with Mario doesnt automatically mean that it will be a success.

- i do not need to remember you that both The X Box 360 and pS3 will be able to outsell the Wii in some years

So in the end all i want to say is dont be so sure about the Wii U. Its like me saying the PS4 will dominate next gen because it dominated PS1 and PS2 times without knwoing the specs and the price. Or its like me saying the PS4 will be first next gen because the PS3 is the best selling home console each year.
I also dont say that the Wii U wont be first ( anything can happened) but it also can flopp hardly. So dont be so sure or you might get really dissapointed.



DirtyP2002 on 11 September 2012

You really need another hook?

The new Xbox 3 will feature:

- BluRay
- Kinect 2.0
- Netflix
- ESPN
- MLB
- NBA
- NHL
- Nickelodeon
- Paramount
- Live TV
- Sky
- CanalPlus
- BBC iPlayer
- Zune Video Store
- Xbox Music
- Facebook
- Twitter
- IGN
- Youtube
- HBO Go
- Youtube
- ZDF Mediathek
- HuluPlus
- LoveFilm
- MSNBC
- Fox
- Machinima
- Smartglass
- UFC


and that is just the confirmed stuff that is available already. Nintendo / Sony need to play catch-up here. I think being an entertainment hub becomes the real hook if you want to own the living room.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

DirtyP2002 on 11 September 2012

can't edit at work...

confirmed / available EXCEPT BluRay



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

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HappySqurriel on 11 September 2012
maverick40 said:
HappySqurriel said:
maverick40 said:
They will sell better than the wii u, that is for sure.


Based on what?

We don't even know what the PS4 or 'XBox 720' will be or how the Wii U will sell ...

Two years from now we could see a home console market that is similar to the handheld market today, with Nintendo having a less powerful but less expensive system with a built in 'gimick' that launched earlier outselling more powerful systems by a wide margin.


Based on the fact that the Nintendo are launching their Next gen console in less than two months and there is zero hype, no price tag, no launch line up,no info regarding nintendo network. Nobody has any clue what the Wii U is and the casuals will think it is an add-on to the Wii. 

I have found that hype is a very unreliable indicator when it comes to sales, primarily because hype is usually measured based on how an unrepresentative 0.1% of people feel about a product. I remember seeing huge amounts of hype surrounding the launches of the Dreamcast, XBox and Gamecube while their sales were unimpressive, and recently the 3DS seemed to launch with little hype and it has sold relatively strongly; certainly, the 3DS' launch was fumbled but sales took off because of an agreesive price and several good game releases.

The lack of information a few months before launch is nothing new in this industry, and has been associated with successful and unsuccessful systems.

 

You have to remember, it is likely that if the Wii U is successful about 5% of people who own it will buy it within 6 months of it launching. While it is important to make a good first impression, producing a successful product is determined by more than just having a good launch; and becoming the market leader is a marathon not a sprint.



Roma on 11 September 2012
maverick40 said:
HappySqurriel said:
maverick40 said:
They will sell better than the wii u, that is for sure.


Based on what?

We don't even know what the PS4 or 'XBox 720' will be or how the Wii U will sell ...

Two years from now we could see a home console market that is similar to the handheld market today, with Nintendo having a less powerful but less expensive system with a built in 'gimick' that launched earlier outselling more powerful systems by a wide margin.


Based on the fact that the Nintendo are launching their Next gen console in less than two months and there is zero hype, no price tag, no launch line up,no info regarding nintendo network. Nobody has any clue what the Wii U is and the casuals will think it is an add-on to the Wii. 

smart gaming?


whatever...

anywho why don't you wait until Thursday before claiming that there won't be any hype before launch?



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(

maverick40 on 11 September 2012
Roma said:
maverick40 said:
HappySqurriel said:
maverick40 said:
They will sell better than the wii u, that is for sure.


Based on what?

We don't even know what the PS4 or 'XBox 720' will be or how the Wii U will sell ...

Two years from now we could see a home console market that is similar to the handheld market today, with Nintendo having a less powerful but less expensive system with a built in 'gimick' that launched earlier outselling more powerful systems by a wide margin.


Based on the fact that the Nintendo are launching their Next gen console in less than two months and there is zero hype, no price tag, no launch line up,no info regarding nintendo network. Nobody has any clue what the Wii U is and the casuals will think it is an add-on to the Wii. 

smart gaming?


whatever...

anywho why don't you wait until Thursday before claiming that there won't be any hype before launch?


Smart gaming?..what?

I am waiting until thursday but my expectations are low, and have been since e3 two years ago. *shudder*



Peterisyum on 11 September 2012
HappySqurriel said:
NotUS said:
Let's look at hardware sales on the home page. (PS3 + Xbox ~ 130 million combined)

I would be confident in saying that the vast majority of these are hardcore to semi hardcore gamers. Let's say 30 million are in the casual bracket.

Based on these numbers that's 100 million potential buyers for the 720 or PS4.

The hook here is simple:

Better Graphics (Detail & Effects)
Better Animation
Higher Resolution
Better Physics
Destructible Environments
Larger Worlds
Online Gaming
Multimedia
Bigger Disc Storage etc

The typical upgrades that come with any new hardware launch. I'd say there are a large portion of PS3 and 360 users who are ready to use their current consoles as a door stop as they have been around for too long, and will jump to next gen at the earliest opportunity.

So in my opinion, they won't fail without a hook as you suggest. Sales will be staggered like any console launch, unless the payment plan they are trialling now with the 360 plays a huge part at launch and influences higher start-up up numbers.

I feel the hook will come into play for the Wii users (96 million of them), who are mostly casual. They will be sold on novelty, I wonder how many of these may turn into serious gamers wanting a more challenging game experience than offered on the Wii.

I also get the feeling that due to the long console cycle, developers have had a lot more time to have AAA games ready for next gen launch. I think this will play the biggest factor in the early adoption, a large selection of next gen games, some with features unable to be reproduced on current gen, and possibly a number of current gen games patched with updated higher res graphics to further entice the move.

In my opinion, despite some good games coming out, PS3 and 360 gamers are bored with current gen. Technical limits have been hit, nothing new on the table, playing the same game year after year. That's why sales are at a low point, people are just waiting...

The PS3 and XBox 360 didn't sell 130 million consoles to "hardcore" gamers, they sold the vast majority of those systems to broader market gamers who wanted to play games like Call of Duty and these systems were their only option ... If the generation played out differently, and third party publishers produced a decent number of similar games for the Wii, a large portion of these gamers wouldn't have bought their HD console.

The typical gamer, regardless of whether they play "core" or "casual" games, doesn't really care that much about the processing power of their system; they care whether it provides new and interesting experiences.


^ cannot agree more with this. If Nintendo had any true desire to help third parties it would have gone after titles like this with a fever all generation, instead it just sat by as developers slammed half assed ports and on rails shooter spinoffs of other games on the wii. I shudder to think how sucessful the wii would have been with games like dead space or call of duty as exclusives.