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Forums - Politics Discussion - Economist: civilization may not survive "death spiral"

Dark_Lord_2008 said:

Economists are false prophets of doom. Economists are great at studying economic events after they have happened. Economist future forecasts based on past trends do not take into account Black Swan Effect and other unexpected events.

The easiest way to get rid of inextinguishable debts is to simply abandon one currency and switch to another currency. It is about time the Euro is ditched in favour of nations having their own currencies.  Germany is  forced to subsidise the weaker nations in the European Union.

I believe that corresponds with what Austrian economics says about economics, in that economics is poor for making predictions.  It has partly to due with there being a human element.  Economics is best suited at looking back at what had happened.



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Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
RedInker said:
16 trillion Dollars!!! Fuck me thats a lot of money. Time to seriously tighten the purse srrings.

In 2000, as Bill Clinton left office, the debt was down to $6 trillion, But by 2008 because Bush started 2 wars and introduces massive tax cuts, it rose to $11 trillion and now due to the recession, it is $16 trillion under Obama.

The USA is practically worth nothing now, it's debt is $1 trillion above it's own GDP, which is $15 trillion. Whoever, get's elected now, need's to sort it before it's to late, it won't be easy, but something has to be done, or America is gone.  

"Down" to 6 trillion is a misuese.   The government's debt went up under clinton... by quite a bit.

The National Debt ended at 6 trillion under Clinton.

It started at 4.4 Trillion... and increased every year he was in office.

Fiscal
Year
Year
Ending
National Debt Deficit
FY1993  09/30/1993  $4.411488 trillion  
FY1994  09/30/1994  $4.692749 trillion  $281.26 billion
FY1995  09/29/1995  $4.973982 trillion  $281.23 billion
FY1996  09/30/1996  $5.224810 trillion  $250.83 billion
FY1997  09/30/1997  $5.413146 trillion  $188.34 billion
FY1998  09/30/1998  $5.526193 trillion  $113.05 billion
FY1999  09/30/1999  $5.656270 trillion  $130.08 billion
FY2000  09/29/2000  $5.674178 trillion  $17.91 billion
FY2001  09/28/2001  $5.807463 trillion  $133.29 billion

 

 

What Clinton did was pay down government debt by doing things like raiding social security for money.

A increase of $1.6 trillion in debt under 8 years of Clinton is relatively small, when it went $5 trillion under Bush (8 years) and another $5 trillion under Obama in just 4 years!!! Either way, it's not good, it's very unstainable and America can't have another 4 years where it gains another $5 trillion of debt!

America needs a president who will take out all the stops to improve the economy, while limiting excessive spending. I think they should temporarily halt all Foreign policy activities (wars, foreign aid etc.) and increase all taxes (especially on millionaires and billionaires!) Cutting, stuff at home like police or education should be limited.

The time for true change is now! 

And I thought you were an Obama guy.

Either way, the point is... the national debt never goes down. 

Even the most fiscally conservative republican is just talking about lowering the increase in government spending and debt for about 20 years until they aren't in office anymore.

Nobody has a plan to get us to no debt by 2016, 2020 or even 2028.

i'm anti-Romney lol. But to be honest, I don't care who it is, someone needs to sort out the economy and end wastful spending, cause they are shooting themsleves in the foot, the more debt they get. But, I don't believe it's Obama's fault at all. It's mostly Bush's fault as he cut taxes to rediculously low levels (only do that, if you can afford it!) and started 2 conflicts, that should of never happened. Plus the recession, started in 2007 under Bush, which naturally caused the debt to grow, due to lost revenues.

But the fact is now, the us debt is so high, it's over 100% of GDP! Which just is not sustainable, and is really when, something must be done. (multiple countries in the EU, learned this the hard way!) It's very foolish, that American politicians are not doing anything about it. The signs are already showing too, with small towns across the US going bankcrupt, what's saying Bigger cities like Detroit won't follow this? Something must be done to improve this



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richardhutnik said:
Dark_Lord_2008 said:

Economists are false prophets of doom. Economists are great at studying economic events after they have happened. Economist future forecasts based on past trends do not take into account Black Swan Effect and other unexpected events.

The easiest way to get rid of inextinguishable debts is to simply abandon one currency and switch to another currency. It is about time the Euro is ditched in favour of nations having their own currencies.  Germany is  forced to subsidise the weaker nations in the European Union.

I believe that corresponds with what Austrian economics says about economics, in that economics is poor for making predictions.  It has partly to due with there being a human element.  Economics is best suited at looking back at what had happened.

You can still make predictions with Austrian economics. Austrian economists will say, for example, that minimum wage laws will lead to greater unemployment.

Where Austrian ecnomics is different from other schools is in its methodology. If a study came out that said that minimum wage laws will reduce unemployment, non-Austrians may adapt that believe. With other schools, everything is true until proven false, like a science. With Austrians, they will say no, and will say that the study is flawed, or that it doesn't account for something else (basically, that it wasn't "all else equal").

Minimum wage will lead to unemployment. A triangle has 3 sides. If a study comes out that says that triangles can have 4 sides, there's something wrong with the study. If something comes out that says that minimum wage decreases unemployment, there's something wrong with the study.

There are other key differences. But this is perhaps the most profound.

But, back to your original point, many Austrians predicted the 2008 collapse. They're predicting a treasury collapse within the next couple of years. And they're predicting a China bust (though, no time on when).



Your daily bad news....

 

What took Ben Bernanke sixty minutes of mumbling about tools, word-twisting, and data-manipulating to kinda-sorta admit - that in fact he is lost; Ron Paul eloquently expresses in 25 seconds in this Bloomberg TV clip. Noting that "we are creating money out of thin air," Paul sums up Bernanke's position perfectly "We've Lost Control!"

Paul’s reaction to more Federal Reserve stimulus:

“It should not surprise anybody, but it is still astounding. To me, it is so astounding that it does not collapse the markets. [Bernanke] said, ‘We are in very big trouble. We are going to do something unprecedented and we believe it will not hurt the dollar.’ And yet the stocks, they say ‘we love this stuff.’ But the dollar didn’t do so well today and the real value of the dollar is measured against gold, and gold skyrocketed from its very low to its highest. It means we are weakening the dollar. We are trying to liquidate our debt through inflation. The consequence of what the Fed is doing is a lot more than just CPI. It has to do with malinvestment and people doing the wrong things at the wrong time. Believe me, there is plenty of that. The one thing that Bernanke has not achieved and it frustrates him, I can tell—is he gets no economic growth. He doesn’t do anything with the unemployment numbers. I think the country should have panicked over what the Fed is saying that we have lost control and the only thing we have left is massively creating new money out of thin air, which has not worked before, and is not going to work this time.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ron-paul-country-should-panic-over-feds-decision

 

Also:

The Federal Reserve is talking about “unlimited QE,” or money printing, to boost employment. Economist John Williams says, “That’s absolutely nonsense. The Fed is just propping up the banks.” Williams says, “You’re likely going to see a dollar sell-off . . . That should evolve into hyperinflation.” Williams, “Doesn’t see the current system holding together without hyperinflation beyond 2014.” He contends the real annual deficit is “$5 trillion per year” and says, “That’s beyond containment.” 

Williams predicts, “Hyperinflation is virtually assured because the Fed doesn’t have any options left.” Williams says people should get prepared because we are facing a “man-made disaster.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.

Mmm.