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Forums - Sales Discussion - 3DS vs PSV 2012 Edition: 3DS 30m or PSV 5m? (Oct 6th: Vita > 3m!)

 

Which milestone will occur first: 3DS 30m or PSV 5m?

Both before Jan 5th, but 3DS first 77 16.67%
 
Both before Jan 5th, but PSV first 35 7.58%
 
3DS before Jan 5th, PSV after 179 38.74%
 
PSV before Jan 5th, 3DS after 59 12.77%
 
Both after Jan 5th, but 3DS first 83 17.97%
 
Both after Jan 5th, but PSV first 29 6.28%
 
Total:462
TWRoO on 23 August 2012
Conegamer said:
TWRoO said:
Can someone link me to a source (preferably one close to the original) for whoever said the Vita shipments were only 2.2m at the end of June. I want to read it for myself as I am unsure it has been interpreted correctly (after all it means the PSP, which is selling even less than PSV and should have already had ample stock, shipped 1 million in that quarter, which sounds daft)

Of course:

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/364006/psp-outselling-vita-21-new-sony-data-reveals/?cid=OTC-RSS&attr=CVG-General-RSS#

It's not the original source, mind, but its the clearest.

Damn the original is in German, and doesn't have a direct quote.

I don't think this qualifies anything though, he may have been talking actual sales (based on NPD/GfK etc... not sure if Sony have an internal tracking system like Ninty) instead of shipments, though I am doubtful on that. But also the time period and regions were not specified, and with Sony employees it's not a good idea to jump to conclusions. (though I do believe it is more likely he meant cumulative shipments worldwide by June 30th than any other scenario)



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benao87 on 23 August 2012

3DS won't do ~11m, it just won't. It probably will sell ~7m.

Vita will have it easier, however, contrary to it's name, the device has proven it can go as low as possible.

Both after, 3DS first (just because of lame PSV sales, and adjustments)

 

Edit: Algo tagging for weekly updates, and to check the predictions from Turkish and Ethomaz XD



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Deoz on 23 August 2012

None of them this year, both probably after and probably the 3ds first.



Paul on 23 August 2012

With the 3DSXL it should happen. Couple of big games at christmas.



Salnax on 23 August 2012

Vita will "win," despite selling massively less. We're talking about under 3 vs over 10 million sales necessary to reach the appropriate numbers. The Vita won't be doing great, but it has a bit more life left than a lot of people are saying.



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Pavolink on 23 August 2012
kopstudent89 said:
PSV before, 3DS after. I can see the PSV doing better in the holidays

Agree, althought 5M is not a milestone in any way.

3DS won't reach 30M mark until maybe january 2013 at best.



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Sam3o on 23 August 2012
Salnax said:
Vita will "win," despite selling massively less. We're talking about under 3 vs over 10 million sales necessary to reach the appropriate numbers. The Vita won't be doing great, but it has a bit more life left than a lot of people are saying.

Seeing how 3DS needs 10.8m and Vita needs 2.3m, a little math will show us that 3DS needs to sell > 4.7 times PSV sales from now until 2013 for it to "win". This week alone, the ratio is more like 7:1 even without NSMB2 in the west and without 3DS XL in the US. Still, starting from September, Vita sales will improve when the games start rolling and I expect it to be close in the end (1 or 2 weeks difference).



Sam3o on 23 August 2012
Sam3o said:
Salnax said:
Vita will "win," despite selling massively less. We're talking about under 3 vs over 10 million sales necessary to reach the appropriate numbers. The Vita won't be doing great, but it has a bit more life left than a lot of people are saying.

Seeing how 3DS needs 10.8m and Vita needs 2.3m, a little math will show us that 3DS needs to sell > 4.7 times PSV sales from now until 2013 for it to "win". This week alone, the ratio is more like 7:1 even without NSMB2 in the west and without 3DS XL in the US. Still, starting from September, Vita sales will improve when the games start rolling and I expect it to be close in the end (1 or 2 weeks difference).

OOOPS! I meant 6:1



curl-6 on 23 August 2012
kowenicki said:
curl-6 said:
There's almost no way Vita won't make 5m by the 5th of Jan. Even IF games like COD/AC don't provide large boosts, 2.3m isn't that much to do over 4 months including the holiday season. Even the unpopular consoles get a big lift from the Xmas rush.


It will be more like 2.7m required following adjustments

Now, if the Vita sells as it is for the next 10 weeks, as it will, then it will be 2.4m in 2 months...  sounding more difficult yet?

The 2.2m figure was for the end of June though, wasn't it? So it by now it should be around 2.4-2.5m already.



the_dengle on 23 August 2012

I think they'll both pass the marks you set by Jan 5th, but 3DS first. With a new hardware model, a new 2D Mario, the great software lineup this Holiday, and the typical sales boost Nintendo always get in Nov/Dec... no contest, even with the benchmark for Vita set so low. Vita has sold 2.5 mil in the past 8 months, and it'll struggle to sell another 1 mil before the end of October, while 3DS will easily sell over 4 mil in the same period.

Wait, hang on a second....

As of August 11th, these are the sales numbers that we have:

    2011 Sales (Week Ending Dec 31st): 3DS = 13,250,062 - PSV = 481,573
    2012 Sales (Week Ending Aug 11th): 3DS = 5,947,661 - PSV = 2,172,615

3DS sold less than 50% its 2011 numbers so far this year, while Vita sold more than 4 times its 2011 numbers? 3DS IS D00MED CONFIRMED