Vita should win it, but I just don't know. A good first thread.

I think an equally interesting discussion will be which will happen first- Vita drops below 30k a week (if it hasn't already) or 3DS below 200k a week?

Well, putting expectations too high for the Vita would make most people agree that the 3DS will reach its milestone first, and there would be little to discuss :P

I personally never believed the Vita would outsell the 3DS but i do hope it can start to do better than it is so the 3DS can have some real competition to drive it so i hope youre right about the 6-7 mil, but i think that the way the start of this handheld gen has gone with the 3ds pricecut and the fact vita is now selling at dreamcast levels nothing is certain, especially since sony cant afford to drop the price. 

i know Vita is doing bad but this prediction is not accurate at all.

Vita will cross 5m before 3DS crosses 30m, thats almost certain. unless Vita stops selling wich i dont think will happen but hey who knows.

"Both after Jan 5th, but 3DS first" is my pick. 10.8 Million units is a lot for the 3DS. 2.3 million units is also a lot for the Vita. I think Animal Crossing in japan will help the 3DS to get to their target faster than the Vita, but not before Jan 5th....

Honestly? The Vita has no great game in japan for this year. There are some games for the west (AC-Ripoff, CoD) that could sell some Vitas.

After all the Vita sold only 2.2 mio until now. The Vita has already had some chance in japan at launch in december, but has not sold well. This december the japan sales will be even lower. I don't see high sales for the Vita in rest of the world this year unless Sony cuts the price by half.

If there are some cheap bundles at christmas the Vita will reach the 5 Mio units in april 2013, but probably later.

The 30 mio for the 3DS could be reached in january 2013. Animal Crossing should sell some 3DS in japan this year.

3DS should have 36-37 million by January 5th.

No idea about Vita, I don't even see it in stores anymore.

Difficult to say, especially no that we know the Vita actually sold less than we thought it did.
10 million for the 3DS should be reachable considering Nintendo systems usually have great holiday seasons and the fact it's selling over 200k now, so at least I say 3DS will make it before Jan 5th.
I don't really see Vita do very much in the holiday season. AC and CoD will be greatly overshadowed by their console counterparts and won't do anymore than Uncharted Golden Abyss did, on top of the console still being very expensive. Considering the snails pace it sells, I don't think it will make it.

3DS before Jan 5th, Vita after.

Assuming there are no adjustments, I think current trends should see both get to their targets before the end of the year, but I expect the Vita to manage 5 million in early to mid-December (maybe 2nd or 3rd week) with 3DS just topping 30 million in the week or two after Christmas. (though Christmas period can be huge for Ninty so if it has a stellar couple of pre-Christmas weeks it might get there in the 3rd week of December)

If the rumour about Vita needing downward adjustment is true then I suspect Vita won't make 5 million till the first quarter of 2013 (not sure about the validity of that rumour though, I suspect it could just be confusion between shipping/selling again, or about which date or collection of regions were being referred to... unfortunately Sony employees always seem to give facts without proper reference so people assume the wrong things)

Well, I'll go with shipments... and to me 3DS will reach 30 before vita hits 5

Vita: 2.2 million now (added 0.4 from last quarter)

3DS: 19 million (up 1.9 million from last quarter)

Nintendo expects 14 million 3DS by march 2013, so that leaves 12 to be made. 10 or more will be before the end of the year. To me none will reach their goals (30 and 5) by january 5th, but 3DS will make it in q4 2013 (jan-march). At this rate, vita won't, and its forecast is insane to go to.