NFL Prediction League 2012

Week 1

Level1Death wins the week with a record of 13-3 and superchunk comes in second with 12-4. Six people go 11-5, with Kenology, chocoloco and JWeinCom winning the tie-breaking procedure for third, fourth and fifth place, respectively. It was a good week overall with 17 out of 22 people predicting 10 or more games correctly and nobody posting a negative record.

I do not guarantee that everything will be flawless, so please check your stats (weekly predictions, results and standings). If you notice any errors, let me know.

Week 2

In a lackluster week that saw only six people who achieved a positive record, zuvuyeay (10-6) wins the tie-breaker against Train wreck (10-6) for first place. Kenology (10-6) finishes in third, just like last week. noname2200 (9-7) comes in fourth and chocoloco (9-7) takes the fifth spot. Six people failed to submit the majority of their predictions or any predictions at all. Is the league starting to fall apart already or is it just the Wii U hype that made people forget about football for a week?

In the overall standings, Kenology (21-11) takes the lead, barely ahead of zuvuyeay, Train wreck and chocoloco (all 20-12). The biggest gain goes to noname2200 (up 9 spots, from #18 to #9) while JWeinCom experiences the biggest drop (down 14, from #5 to #19).

Week 3

Another bad week in the prediction league, this time we have only four people with a positive record. Mendicate Bias (9-7) wins the week by being the only one to call a Green Bay loss on Monday Night Football. shakarak (9-7), outlawauron (9-7) and Level1Death (9-7) follow in #2 through #4 while chocoloco sneaks into the top 5 with an 8-8 record.

Kenology (29-19) maintains his lead by one game in the overall standings, ahead of Level1Death and chocoloco (both 28-20). Train wreck (27-21) remains within striking distance. Mendicate Bias is also the winner of the week in the overall standings (up 7, from #12 to #5) while superchunk goes into the opposite direction (down 7, from #8 to #15).

Week 4

The real referees are back and the results in the prediction league improved considerably, compared to the last two weeks. We had 18 people with a positive record. In a close finish, RolStoppable comes out on top this week, followed by Kenology and NinjaBlade360 (all 14-1). insomniac17 (13-2) clinches the fourth spot and BoneArk (12-3) takes the fifth.

In the overall standings, Kenology (43-20) remains the leader and extends his lead to four games. RolStoppable (39-24), chocoloco (38-25) and insomniac17 (38-25) are his biggest rivals at the moment. The big winner of the week is NinjaBlade360 (up 8, from #18 to #10) while amp316 loses the most positions (down 5, from #8 to #13).

Week 5

Newcomer Zelhawks37 wins the week with a record of 11-3, pulling ahead of superchunk, Mendicate Bias and outlawauron in the tie-breaking procedure. Another seven people went 10-4 and it's zuvuyeay who takes the fifth spot overall, because he was the only guy in this group who didn't predict a blowout in the Monday Night game. Everyone finished this week with a positive record. Nice.

Nothing new at the top of the overall standings. Kenology (52-25) still leads by four games. His biggest rivals have shuffled positions though. Mendicate Bias and insomniac17 are both 48-29 while RolStoppable and chocoloco are both 47-28. The biggest winners of the week were Mendicate Bias (up 4, from #6 to #2) and Zelhawks37 (up 4, from #25 to #21) who passed the four inactive players that are not expected to return. The losers of the week were Level1Death (down 3, from #5 to #8) and shakarak (down 3, from #9 to #12).

Week 6

Zelhawks37 (10-4) wins the second week in a row. BoneArk and hatmoza (both 8-6) are the only other people with a positive record this week. The fourth and fifth spot go to RolStoppable and arcane_chaos (both 7-7). Everyone else has a negative record, so the prediction league has hit a new low. We can't even blame the referees anymore.

Kenology (58-33) has now been the leader for five consecutive weeks and he is still four games ahead. RolStoppable (54-37) is in second place, three players have a record of 53-38: Mendicate Bias, BoneArk and insomniac17. The huge winner of the week is BoneArk who moved up 7 spots (from #11 to #4) while Level1Death slides down 5 positions (from #8 to #13).

Week 7

What a rebound from last week. Everyone attained a positive record in Week 7. Not only that, but two people were perfect. zuvuyeay and insomniac17 (both 13-0) edged out arcane_chaos, noname2200 and RolStoppable (all 12-1). Another three people with a record of 12-1 missed the top 5. This is some serious competition.

Kenology's (68-36) lead in the overall standings shrinks to two games, because both RolStoppable and insomniac (both 66-38) made excellent picks in Week 7. zuvuyeay (65-39) also closed the gap with a strong performance while arcane_chaos gained the most positions this week (up 3, from #11 to #8). The loser of the week is Train wreck who went down 6 spots (from #8 to #14).

Week 8

outlawauron wins the tie-breaking procedure against SaviorX and insomniac17 (all 11-3) in a week with mixed results. Rank 4 and 5 go to amp316 and arcane_chaos (both 10-4), respectively.

We have a new leader in the overall standings! insomniac17 (77-41) is now slightly ahead of Kenology (76-42), zuvuyeay and RolStoppable (both 74-44) round out the top 4. There are now only two active players left who have yet to record a top 5 position in the single week results: ljigga and Blacksaber. The player who gained the most positions this week is Level1Death (up 4, from #15 to #11), the player who lost the most ground is BoneArk (down 7, from #7 to #14).

Week 9

insomniac17 comes out on top with a record of 13-1. Four people went 12-2 and they are ranked in the following order: RolStoppable, zuvuyeay, BoneArk, amp316. Overall, we had a great week. Even the lowest ranked players achieved a record of 9-5.

At the season's halfway mark, insomniac17 (90-42) now leads by four games. #2 through #10 to give a more complete picture than usual: zuvuyeay and RolStoppable (both 86-46), Kenology (85-47), amp316 (84-48), arcane_chaos (83-49), Mendicate Bias and chocoloco (both 81-51), noname2200 and ljigga (both 80-52). No big changes in positions this week, three people went up two spots: amp316 (from #7 to #5), BoneArk (from #14 to #12) and shakarak (from #17 to #15). Four people lost two positions: Kenology (from #2 to #4), chocoloco (from #6 to #8), NinjaBlade360 (from #12 to #14) and Train wreck (from #15 to #17).

Week 10

superchunk (10-4) walks away with the victory in a week with unspectacular results. Ranks 2 to 4 go to insomniac17, BoneArk and chocoloco (all 10-4), respectively. Seven players finish the week with a record of 9-5 and it's SaviorX who wins the tie-breaking procedure to snatch a valuable prediction point.

In the overall standings, insomniac17 (100-46) is the first player to hit the 100 games milestone. He also extended his lead to five games. RolStoppable (95-51) and Kenology (94-52) are in second and third place, respectively. The winners of the week are chocoloco (up 2, from #8 to #6) and BoneArk (up 2, from #12 to #10). The losers of the week are zuvuyeay (down 2, from #2 to #4), arcane_chaos (down 2, from #6 to #8) and ljigga (down 2, from #10 to #12).

Week 11

Five people attained a 13-1 record: hatmoza, amp316, zuvuyeay, SaviorX and superchunk. 18 people made 10 or more correct picks this week. The bye weeks in the NFL are behind us now, so we'll have a full 16 games in each of the remaining weeks.

insomniac17's (111-49) lead shrinks to four games. RolStoppable (107-53), zuvuyeay (106-54), Kenology (106-54) and amp316 (105-55) round out the top 5. The winner of the week is superchunk who moved up 5 spots (from #13 to #8). The loser of the week is arcane_chaos who is down 8 spots (from #8 to #16).

Week 12

hatmoza (14-2) wins again. ljigga (13-3) wins the tie-breaker against shakarak (13-3) for second place. Five people go 12-4, #4 and #5 go to arcane_chaos and SaviorX, respectively.

insomniac17's (121-55) lead on RolStoppable (118-58) shrinks by another game. The following four people have a record of 115-61: zuvuyeay, Kenology, amp316 and chocoloco. ljigga is the winner of the week (up 3, from #12 to #9) while BoneArk and Mendicate Bias both lose two positions, down from #9 to #11 and down from #10 to #12, respectively.

Week 13

amp316 (11-5) is the winner in a week with modest results. hatmoza and BoneArk (both 11-5) finish in second and third place while rank 4 and 5 go to NinjaBlade360 and Zelhawks37 (both 10-6), respectively.

insomniac17 (131-61) extends his lead to five games again while amp316 and RolStoppable are now exactly tied for second place (both 126-66). zuvuyeay and chocoloco (both 125-67) round out the top 5. The winner of the week is amp316 (up 3, from #5 to #2), the losers of the week are Kenology (down 2, from #4 to #6), noname2200 (down 2, from #7 to #9), MendicateBias (down 2, from #12 to #14) and Train wreck (down 2, from #18 to #20). The latter has also been officially eliminated from the playoff race. Speaking of which, hatmoza has closed the gap to #16 to only three games. An exciting final quarter of the season lies ahead.

Week 14

Another week with modest results. Mendicate Bias (12-4) finishes ahead of hatmoza, insomniac17, Level1Death (all 11-5) and Blacksaber (10-6). The latter finally accomplished a top 5 spot and is the last active player to do so.

In the overall standings, everything is pointing towards a victory for insomniac17 (142-66) who now leads amp316 (135-73) by seven games. zuvuyeay and RolStoppable are 134-74, Kenology and chocoloco have a record of 132-76. The winner of the week is Level1Death (up 4, from #11 to #7). The losers are RolStoppable (down 2, from #2 to #4), superchunk (down 2, from #7 to #9) and shakarak (down 2, from #15 to #17).

Week 15

superchunk (13-3) beats chocoloco (12-4), noname2200 (12-4), NinjaBlade360 (11-5) and ljigga (10-6).

insomniac17 (152-72) adds another game to his lead, he is now eight games ahead of RolStoppable and chocoloco (both 144-80). Rank 2-10 are within four games, so even if there won't be a change at the very top, there's probably going to be a lot of position shuffling right below it in the final two weeks. The winner of the week is superchunk (up 4, from #9 to #5), the loser of the week is zuvuyeay (down 3, from #3 to #6).

Week 16

NinjaBlade360 wins the tie-breaker against insomniac17 (both 14-2) for first place. BoneArk (13-3) comes in third while eight people go 12-4 for the week. #4 and #5 go to Mendicate Bias and chocoloco, respectively. For the first time in a while, everyone achieved a positive record.

insomniac17 (166-74) has the win pretty much locked up with a 10 game lead, but the playoff seeding among the top 10 is anything but clear. #2-10 are still within 4 games, #3-10 are even within 2 games now. chocoloco (156-84, #2) holds the advantage while superchunk, amp316 and RolStoppable (all 154-86) are also well positioned for the final week of the regular season. The winners of Week 16 are superchunk (up 2, from #5 to #3), NinjaBlade360 (up 2, from #11 to #9) and BoneArk (up 2, from #13 to #11). The losers are RolStoppable (down 2, from #2 to #4) and ljigga (down 2, from #10 to #12).

Week 17

chocoloco (13-3) wins the tie-breaker against BoneArk (13- 3) and thus the week. Five people attained a record of 12-4 and #3-5 go to NinjaBlade360, zuvuyeay and Level1Death.

At the end of the season, the top 5 in the prediction league are:

1. insomniac17 (177-79)
2. chocoloco (169-87)
3. superchunk (166-90)
4. amp316 (166-90)
5. zuvuyeay (165-91)

Congratulations!

The tables for the playoffs can be found in the post below.

 

Wild Card Weekend

#	Name	Record/PD Total	vs.	Record/PD Total	Name	#	HFA
14	SaviorX	2-2/36	vs.	2-2/1 (37)	insomniac17	1	36
13	Mendicate Bias	3-1/29	vs.	3-1/24 (35)	chocoloco	2	11
12	ljigga	2-2/-	vs.	4-0/11 (28)	superchunk	3	17
11	Kenology	3-1/27	vs.	4-0/22 (28)	amp316	4	6
10	BoneArk	3-1/20	vs.	4-0/14 (19)	zuvuyeay	5	5
9	noname2200	3-1/22	vs.	2-2/41 (47)	NinjaBlade360	6	6
8	Level1Death	3-1/24	vs.	3-1/26 (28)	RolStoppable	7	2

BoneArk clinched the lucky loser spot.

Divisional Playoffs

#	Name	Record/PD Total	vs.	Record/PD Total	Name	#	HFA
10	BoneArk	1-3/71	vs.	1-3/28 (49)	insomniac17	1	21
9	noname2200	2-2/37	vs.	2-2/22 (34)	chocoloco	2	12
8	Level1Death	1-3/56	vs.	2-2/23 (32)	superchunk	3	9
5	zuvuyeay	2-2/30	vs.	1-3/50 (51)	amp316	4	1

Conference Championships

#	Name	Record/PD Total	vs.	Record/PD Total	Name	#	HFA
5	zuvuyeay	1-1/31	vs.	1-1/13 (21)	insomniac17	1	8
3	superchunk	1-1/29	vs.	1-1/23 (25)	chocoloco	2	2

Super Bowl XLVII

insomniac17

31-28

vs.

31-27

chocoloco

Prediction League Rules

1. General Information

I am not going to handle more than 32 players. Not that I expect to get this many people to join, but there needs to be a certain cutoff just in case. If there's a run for the prediction league, longtime VGC members will be chosen over newbies. But again, I don't think there will be this much interest.

2. Weekly Predictions

2.1 Deadline: The deadline for predictions is one hour before kickoff time of any given game. So in case you miss the Thursday Night Game (which is bound to happen to some people), it will be recorded as a loss for you, but you can still predict the remaining games of the week. You are allowed to change your already submitted predictions before a deadline, but you must make a new post. Preferably you quote your previous predictions and point out what you changed.

2.2 Reminders: I will not send out any reminders to anyone. Everyone is responsible for his own predictions. You will receive a PM notifying you about the start of the Prediction League. I don't want anyone to quit because they happened to miss the first week. People who are about to miss their second week in a row will also receive a PM.

2.3 Predictions: Predictions can be posted in this thread or you can send me a PM, if you prefer it that way. The second post in this thread will contain a table for your convenience and I plan to update it on Mondays, so each week you have about three days to post your predictions. Quote the post or copy-paste the table and fill in your predictions. Put down a "1", if you think the team listed first will win or a "2", if you think the team listed second will win. If for whatever reason you think a game will end in a draw, write down a "D".

2.4 Tie-Breaker: For the Monday Night Game you have to predict an actual result. This serves tie-breaking purposes. The Monday Night Game will always be in the bottom right of the table in the second post and marked with a "0-0". In Week 16 and 17 the tie-breaker game will be chosen by me. It's going to be a game where a lot is at stake, preferably for both teams involved.

2.5 Cheating: Anyone who gets caught cheating, whether that is on one, several or all games in a given week, will go 0-X for the week ("X" being equal to the number of games during the week in question).

3. Weekly Results

3.1 The Winner: The player who predicted the winners of the most games correctly wins the week in the prediction league.

3.2 Tie-Breaker: If two or more people predicted the most games correctly, whoever predicted the winner of the Monday Night Game correctly comes out on top. If there's still a tie, then whoever is closer to the actual points differential of the MNG is the winner. The following examples are for the case that both players predicted the MNG's winner correctly. - Example: Guy A predicted 24-17, Guy B predicted 31-28, the MNG ends 28-24. Guy B wins, because his prediction (points differential: 3) is closer to the actual result (PD: 4) than Guy A's prediction (PD: 7). - If there's still a tie, then whoever is closer to the winner's score of the MNG wins. - Example: Guy A predicted 24-21, Guy B predicted 31-28, the MNG ends 27-24. Guy A wins, because 24 is closer to 27 than 31 is to 27. - If there's still a tie (which is unavoidable when two people predicted exactly the same result for the MNG), then it is a tie.

3.3 Tie-Breaker Part 2: In case both players predicted the winner of the MNG incorrectly, then the points differential is a little bit more complicated to calculate. - Example: Guy A predicted 24-10, Guy B predicted 31-21, MNG ends 14-28. Guy B wins, because he is off by "only" 24 points (10+14) while Guy A is off by 28 points (14+14). This is perhaps confusing at first, but I hope people understand the procedure in case they happen to face it at some point. - If this step doesn't break the tie, then whoever is closer to the winner's score of the MNG wins. - If there's still a tie, then it is a tie.

3.4 Tie-Breaker Part 3: It won't be applied to players outside of the top 3 for the week. Everyone outside of that range who is tied with someone else will be simply listed as the same rank for the week in alphabetical order.

3.5 Prediction Points (PP): The best three players of each week will be rewarded with prediction points. #1 gets 4 points, #2 gets 2 points and #3 gets 1 point. These points serve tie-breaking purposes in the overall standings and will also come to use in the playoffs. There's a total of 7 PP that will be awarded each week, so if two people tie for first place, both will receive 3 PP while #3 gets 1 PP. If two people tie for second place, then #1 gets 4 PP while the two tied players each receive 1.5 PP. If two people tie for third place, then #1 gets 4 PP, #2 gets 2 PP and the two tied players each receive 0.5 PP.

The top 5 each week will be rewarded with prediction points (7, 5, 3, 2, 1). Distribution of these points in case of ties will be handled in the same manner as outlined in the crossed out part above. A total of 18 PP will be awarded each week.

3.6 Perfect Week (PW): If a player manages to predict the winners of all games in a given week correctly, he will be rewarded with 3 PP in a week with 16 games or 2.5 PP in a week with less than 16 games. If more than one player happens to have a perfect week, then all of them will get the full value of points. PP for perfect weeks will not be shared.

4. Standings

4.1 The Ranking: Players will be ranked based on their amount of correctly predicted games over the course of the season. Whoever predicted the most games across 17 weeks correctly wins the prediction league.

4.2 Tie-Breaker: If two players are tied, then the prediction points come into play. Whoever has more of them will rank higher in the overall standings. - If there's still a tie, then the player who managed to achieve the most weekly #1 spots comes out on top. - Next step: Higher amount of #2 spots. - Last step: Higher amount of #3 spots. Same procedure for the ranks 3 through 5. - Perfect weeks have no importance in this tie-breaking procedure. - If there's still a tie, then it remains a tie for the time being. Players will be listed as the same rank in alphabetical order.

4.3 Tie-Breaking Procedure in Week 17: In the final week of the season all ties will be broken. If the above steps don't lead to a result, then the player who ranked higher in the Week 17 predictions comes out on top. - In case this happens to have been a tie between these players as well, we'll go back to Week 16 and so on and so forth. There will be no tied positions whatsoever at the end of the season.

5. Playoffs

5.1 Bonus Round: Basically, the playoffs are a bonus round at the end of the season. We will have a winner of the regular season prediction league as well as a winner of the playoff round. It might very well be one and the same person though.

5.2 Number of Contenders: I'd like to run the playoffs with 16 people, but I also have playoff modes with 12 or only 8 people in mind in case that we don't manage to reach 16 eligible players.

5.3 Eligible Players: The top 16 players of the regular season who have not missed more than two full weeks of predictions are eligible.

5.4 Seeding in the Wild-Card Playoffs Round: Highest seed vs. lowest seed. #1 vs. #16, #2 vs. #15 and so on and so forth. The winner proceeds to the next round, the season ends for the loser.

5.5 Predictions: You have to predict the results, not just the winners of the four games. You have to send me your predictions via PM. Well, technically you can post them in this thread, but why would you want to let your opponent know what you are predicting? In case I am eligible for the playoffs, I will send my predictions to a VGC moderator via PM who will then confirm in this thread that he received my predictions. Afterwards my opponent can send me his predictions. This will prevent any possible cheating on my part. Not that I intended to, but such concerns have to be addressed regardless.

5.6 The Home Field Advantage: The higher seed in each matchup will enjoy a home field advantage in the playoffs. It will only apply in a tie-breaking procedure, otherwise it is useless. It is calculated as follows: The higher seed's correctly predicted regular season games minus the lower seed's correctly predicted regular season games (Example: Records of 185-71 and 168-88 means 185 minus 168 which equals 17). Also, the higher seed's PP minus the lower seed's PP, divided by 2, rounded up if necessary. (Example: 13 minus 8 equals 5, divided by 2 equals 2.5. Result rounded up to 3). These two numbers will be added up (Example: 17 plus 3 equals 20). - If the lower seed's PP are higher than the higher seed's PP, then the value for this number will be set to 0. It's called a home field advantage, not a home field disadvantage.

5.7 The Winner: Whoever predicted more winners of the Wild-Card playoff games correctly proceeds to the next round.

5.8 Tie-Breaker: If both players predicted the same amount of winners correctly, then the points differentials of all four Wild-Card playoff games are tallied up and compared to the points differential totals of the predictions then the points differentials in all of their predictions will be tallied up. For the player who holds the home field advantage, the number of his HFA will be substracted from his points differential total. In other words, this player has more room for error in his predictions. After the HFA is applied, the player who is closer to the actual points differential number 0 is the winner. - If there's a tie, then the player with the HFA goes to the next round.

5.9 Divisional Playoffs Round: Highest remaining seed vs. lowest remaining seed. The rules are exactly the same as in the Wild-Card Playoffs round.

5.10 Championship Games: Highest remaining seed vs. lowest remaining seed. The rules remain the same, only this time there are only two games to predict instead of four.

5.11 Super Bowl: The two remaining players duke it out. No home field advantage for the higher seed.

Well done Rol.

So be honest now. Aren't you, as a Packers fan, just a little nervous that the Bears offense is going to be greatly improved and that they have a guy that's actually played NFL QB before as a backup in case Cutler gets hurt?

amp316 said: Well done Rol. So be honest now. Aren't you, as a Packers fan, just a little nervous that the Bears offense is going to be greatly improved and that they have a guy that's actually played NFL QB before as a backup in case Cutler gets hurt?

It wouldn't even worry me, if the Bears had a team that can go 14-2 for the season. There are wild-card spots for the playoffs too and as last year has shown, playing a great regular season doesn't mean anything anymore in the playoffs. I'd rather see the Packers lose one game to the Bears, get a wild-card spot and then go on to win the Super Bowl than winning the division with great ease and sinking like the Titanic in the first playoff game.

RolStoppable said: amp316 said: Well done Rol. So be honest now. Aren't you, as a Packers fan, just a little nervous that the Bears offense is going to be greatly improved and that they have a guy that's actually played NFL QB before as a backup in case Cutler gets hurt? It wouldn't even worry me, if the Bears had a team that can go 14-2 for the season. There are wild-card spots for the playoffs too and as last year has shown, playing a great regular season doesn't mean anything anymore in the playoffs. I'd rather see the Packers lose one game to the Bears, get a wild-card spot and then go on to win the Super Bowl than winning the division with great ease and sinking like the Titanic in the first playoff game.

You have a point there.  Losing in the first round of the playoffs if you were say 15-1  would not be a good thing.

So how do you feel about the Lions?  Are the six offseason arrests a good or bad sign?  

(I'm just trying to start up some discussion on any team but the Jets.  It's all they show on ESPN.  Tebowmania lives on.)

amp316 said: You have a point there.  Losing in the first round of the playoffs if you were say 15-1  would not be a good thing. So how do you feel about the Lions?  Are the six offseason arrests a good or bad sign?   (I'm just trying to start up some discussion on any team but the Jets.  It's all they show on ESPN.  Tebowmania lives on.)

To be honest, the offseason was an offseason for me. I didn't follow any NFL news whatsoever. I hope that by Week 4 I know at least who plays QB for which team.

The Lions were a fad.

And holy cow, the rules for the prediction league are more elaborate than I thought. I am not even done yet.

Wow! You really thought about those tie breakers.

By the way, in case you didn't know I'd like to be in the prediction league.

Count me in. We must never let the Bears fan think they are our equals, not even in the number of fans who join a pick em league!

Speaking of, rather than doing all the work of setting out the weekly spreadsheet and organizing the results, why not just start a Pick Em League and have everyone who wants to join log on to there? CBS' worked well last year.

noname2200 said: Count me in. We must never let the Bears fan think they are our equals, not even in the number of fans who join a pick em league! Speaking of, rather than doing all the work of setting out the weekly spreadsheet and organizing the results, why not just start a Pick Em League and have everyone who wants to join log on to there? CBS' worked well last year.

But I typed out all these rules already...

A Pick Em League would certainly mean less work for me though. Eh, we have a month to agree on what we'll do.