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Forums - Sales Discussion - Dark Knight Rises Box Office Predictions!

Lots of people who don't know about the box office in this thread...

Domestic total: $520m

Foreign: $830m

Total worldwide gross: $1,350m



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Rotten Tomatoes score: 86%



Off Topic?



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

Some guys here estimate Dark Knight Rises way to high.

Heres my prediction

Domestic Total about 550
Foreign: 450

Total: 1.00

I am hardly belief that many of the sales from Dark Knight was because of the dead of Heath Leadger so i dont thin k it will surpass The Dark Knight by a lot.

Anyway sales of 900-1100m is reachable.



pezus said:

What, why? Why didn't you comment on dsage's prediction if you think that's huge? TDK did $158m 4 years ago, the biggest opening ever (back then) in USA. 

That was also all hyped up by Joker's Actor's death. I don't think this one could reach or go over 200 Mil.



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dsage01, those are some very high numbers you are predicting. $300 million domestically in the first weekend seems like a huge stretch to me even though I think it will still be a huge opening....

Lets look at some data from the previous batman movie: The Dark Knight...

Domestic:

Opening Day: $67.1 million
Opening Weekend: $158.4 million
Lifetime: $533.3 million (53.2% of total)

Foreign:
(For this you have to add up the total for each country as it had its opening weekends at various dates in each country. The initial Foreign opening was $41.3 million but that was 19 territories. If you add up opening weekends in each territory combined it comes to around $118.4 million opening weekend. It opened in various territories from Jul 18 through end of August.)

Opening Day: I don't have the data in front of me at this moment
Opening Weekend (all territories): $118.4 million
Lifetime: $468.5 million (46.8% of total)

Rotten Tomatoes: 94%

Total World Wide: $1 Billion

 

So in light of that it was a huge hit and broke all kinds of records within its box office run. The were Major factors that led to the immense success and this may not be all but I think it sums up the majority of its success:

1. Batman: without a doubt the most popular character in super hero comics. When he is in a movie it will draw a sizeable audience to see it.

2. Story/Production: Extremely well put together storyline and film. Not only a intriguing and smart comic book movie but one of the better crime fighting/serial killer thrillers ever made into a film.

3. the Joker: arguably the most iconic villian of Batman in the history his comics. That put together with Heath Ledgers excellent performance in portraying him.

4. Heath Ledger's untimely death. If you think this didn't have a small part in drawing crowds you are fooling yourself. Heath Ledger was becoming very popular as an actor and was in the mere beginnings of his stellar acting career. his death was a shock to everyone. If anything his death took the Huge level of chatter about the Dark Knight film and raises it up a few notches to the talk of the town on most blogs and forums.

 

Flash forward to today and we have the next and last installment of the series: the Dark Knight Rises. From the trailers we are teased with the possibility of Batman and/or Bruce Wayne's character dieing. And supposedly a hint that it could be the end of Batman. After all Bane was the character in the comics who literally "broke the Bat". Talk about the movie is at a high fever pitch but in my mind it is still questionable whether it has hit the hype yet that The Dark Knight had. We will know more when we are at the week of its release and can judge better. Still in light of the four main points I mentioned that propelled The Dark Knight to the top...the Dark Knight Rises does not share in all of those. #1 is a given. #2 is a likely but remains to be fully seen yet until we see some professional reviews. It does not however possess #3 or #4. #4 was the extra umph or the icing on the cake that tipped the Dark Knight over the edge into "on fire" status in terms of chatter levels on websites and media.

However even though The Dark Knight Rises does not share #3 and #4 of what Dark Knight had it does however have more of another potential huge factor and that is: The Mystery surrounding the fate of Batman along with the end of the series. The Character Bane provides that mystery Fate of Batman element because he is the villian who was able to "break the Bat" in the comics. So that and the fact that it ends the series will be a huge draw in this film. Therefore I do think it will surpass the Dark Knight's opening weekend totals domestic and foriegn, and has a decent chance of surpassing the Dark Knight's domestic , but I think an even better shot at passing its world wide totals as there are more opportunities for profit and open markets than there were in 2008. Mind you like the Dark Knight this film does not have a 3D option. Therefore I do not see it surpassing the Avengers especially for opening weekend.

@Dsage01:

in order for it to have a $300 million opening weekend it would have to BY FAR have the Widest Theatre opening of all time and be largely sold out in most all locations. Even the Avengers with its $207 million opening in 4,349 theatres (7th Widest opening. Twilight:Eclipse holds the record at 4,468 theatres) sold out in many of its locations in order to earn that staggering amount. The average per theatre it made was $47,698. That broke the previous record. The Dark Knight's average per theatre was $36,283 for its opening weekend. This means if the Dark Knight Rises matches the Avenger's $47,698 average per theatre...then to get to $300 million opening weekend it would need to open in all time record locations of 6,289 theatres! Thats just impossible in all seriousness and would be incredibly amazing. And plus the fact that it isn't releasing in 3D adds more to the insaneness of a $300 million weekend.

 

Therefore...My prediction for The Dark Knight Rises:

Domestic:

Opening Day: $73 Million

Opening Weekend: $181 Million

Lifetime: $525 Million (I do think it will be close to Dark Knight totals, however I think this movie may have a small touch of the Spider Man 3 effect. I don't mean in the sense that the comic book fans and audience would disproove of its overall story like they did with SM3, but I mean It has so much hype right now that many go see it opening weekend, but Im thinking it will slide down slightly faster than The Dark Knight did due to certain factors.)

Foreign:

Opening Day: ?

Opening Weekend: $172 Million

Lifetime: $645 Million

World Wide Total: $1.17 Billion

Rotten Tomatoes Score: 90%

 

And yes I know....an Insanely long post. Im a data guy and an analyzer of many things in life.




Domestic:

First Day: $85 Million

Opening Weekend: $210 Million

Lifetime Gross: $660 Million

Overseas: 

Opening Weekend: 170 Million

Lifetime Gross: $700 Million

Total Gross: $1.36 Billion



pezus said:
Great post, Allfreedom99, and I agree with most of it, but one thing you must also consider is that the Batman movies now have the reputation that they didn't quite have before TDK came out. Ok, Begins was good, but was it a one hit wonder? It turns out it wasn't and TDK was even better. This will draw more people to see this film, because they know it'll be great.

Also, professional reviews don't affect opening weekend numbers much at all.

I appreciate the compliment Pezus. And I do agree that now the Nolan version of Batman is much much more popular than it was before TDK now that most curious people got their taste of it. And I do think this will draw all or at least almost all of them back and probably some new people. TDK story was so good that it brought many people back to the theatres to see it more than once. Plus add the small factor of it being Heath Ledger's last full movie.

My thinking is that this one while it will be very excellent...im not convinced yet that it will have that affect at that level. It will still cause some people to see it more than once, but Im just not sure yet if it will really be as much as TDK had once they see the film and the mystery surrounding batman is revealed. I do think it has the potential to hit around $200 million opening weekend, but I have serious doubts it has potential to go much higher just for the fact that it would have to have the largest theatre opening in history and have many theatres sold out. Not having 3D will have an effect on the question whether it can surpass Avengers or not. I don't see that potential yet unless its revealed that it will be releasing to more than 4,600 theatres which would break the record for widest theatre release.




pezus said:


Like I said to the other guy: Do you think those people didn't like the movie? Why would they not be excited for this one?

This time it has even more IMAX screens (more expensive) + tickets are generally more expensive now than in 2008. If it doesn't go over 200m it will be very very close. I mean, heck, Avengers did $205m...did anyone expect that?

Well the Avengers had a bunch of SuperHeroes in it. I think that attracted a larger crowd.



pezus said:
Great post, Allfreedom99, and I agree with most of it, but one thing you must also consider is that the Batman movies now have the reputation that they didn't quite have before TDK came out. Ok, Begins was good, but was it a one hit wonder? It turns out it wasn't and TDK was even better. This will draw more people to see this film, because they know it'll be great.

Also, professional reviews don't affect opening weekend numbers much at all.


Also I do think Professional reviews can have a small effect while minimal. For instance if you have a huge budget movie that gets a terrible Rotten score in 40% I think it will have at least some effect on who decides to go see it. Especially if there are other decent options for movies playing at that time.

Granted TDKR most assuredly wont get scores even close to that low and I expect at the very least in the 80th%. So I don't think the score will have much affect on fans either.