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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: NSMB2 will outsell the top 10 PSV games shown off at E3 2012 combined

 

Will this prediction become true?

Yes, definitely. 244 53.39%
 
Probably. 103 22.54%
 
Maybe. Maybe not. 42 9.19%
 
Unlikely. 33 7.22%
 
Impossible. 35 7.66%
 
Total:457
johnsobas on 13 May 2012

he's talking about lifetime, not 1 year. The legs of NSMB will destroy those games.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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bazmeistergen on 13 May 2012
kitler53 said:
RolStoppable said:
kitler53 said:

oh right, i forgot about that.  that just makes it even harder to tell for sure.

i don't think your second statement is a fair assumption.  no one in the games industry is very forth-coming with any sales info regardless of good or bad.

There are regularly press releases for games that have done well, both in the boxed market and the digital space. Good results don't remain hidden.


meh.

*looks at poll* looks like no one is going to disagree with you.  guess your prediction was too soft.   WWJD - What Would Johnlucas Do?


I am sceptical about the existence of JL. Even if people do say 'he needs to be accepted within your heart to know him' :P



Yes.

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Chark on 13 May 2012
johnsobas said:
he's talking about lifetime, not 1 year. The legs of NSMB will destroy those games.


That depends on the legs of the Vita games aswell though.

But yes, mario has huge legs.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

the_dengle on 13 May 2012
Chark said:
Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year


That's a rather conservative assumption.



Dampfi on 13 May 2012

I am going with probably. By the time this Top 10 hits the shelves, the Vita will have a larger established hardware base, so 1million+ sellers are only a matter of time. Still, if NSMB2 can pull of NSMB´s numbers, this is very likely.



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archbrix on 13 May 2012
Chark said:
johnsobas said:
he's talking about lifetime, not 1 year. The legs of NSMB will destroy those games.

That depends on the legs of the Vita games aswell though.

But yes, mario has huge legs.

 

You just proved Rol's prediction correct... Vita games don't even have legs!



bertlsenix on 13 May 2012

Probably

But that is like saying Call of Duty will outsell 90% of the other games combined that get released every year.
Everyone wants Mario.



brendude13 on 13 May 2012
Chark said:
NSMB had a saturation rate of 18.37% on the DS. Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year, NSMB2 will sell 4,592,500 copies.

The Vita with an install base of 8 million at years end would require the 10 games to average 460k, requiring a saturation of 5.75% each. The current average software saturation rate of the Vita's current top 10 is 8.7% meaning that the 10 new games combined will sell 6,960,000.

For all of the possible factors that could effect this; such as NSMB2 having a saturation rate of 30%+, several giant titles hitting Vita, or a larger hardware base for Vita, it is really hard to tell. These number are just based on is all of these games came out in august. Lifetimes sales could be quite different, but it depends on the titles. NSMB2 will have legs and probably will 10+mil by the time its done. I'm going to have to go with an unlikely, but it all depends on those titles.

Wow, you really did some research.



Chark on 13 May 2012
brendude13 said:
Chark said:
NSMB had a saturation rate of 18.37% on the DS. Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year, NSMB2 will sell 4,592,500 copies.

The Vita with an install base of 8 million at years end would require the 10 games to average 460k, requiring a saturation of 5.75% each. The current average software saturation rate of the Vita's current top 10 is 8.7% meaning that the 10 new games combined will sell 6,960,000.

For all of the possible factors that could effect this; such as NSMB2 having a saturation rate of 30%+, several giant titles hitting Vita, or a larger hardware base for Vita, it is really hard to tell. These number are just based on is all of these games came out in august. Lifetimes sales could be quite different, but it depends on the titles. NSMB2 will have legs and probably will 10+mil by the time its done. I'm going to have to go with an unlikely, but it all depends on those titles.

Wow, you really did some research.


Thanks. I try to use the data when I can. If NSMB2 has the saturation rate of Mario 3D land, it will sell 8 million though. It could since there still isnt' that many big 3DS games, but among more software choices a mario game is competiting with a mario game, and therefore saturation has less of a chance to stay high. It will be a close call, but that's mostly because we don't know what those Vita games will be.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

DanneSandin on 13 May 2012
Chark said:
brendude13 said:
Chark said:
NSMB had a saturation rate of 18.37% on the DS. Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year, NSMB2 will sell 4,592,500 copies.

The Vita with an install base of 8 million at years end would require the 10 games to average 460k, requiring a saturation of 5.75% each. The current average software saturation rate of the Vita's current top 10 is 8.7% meaning that the 10 new games combined will sell 6,960,000.

For all of the possible factors that could effect this; such as NSMB2 having a saturation rate of 30%+, several giant titles hitting Vita, or a larger hardware base for Vita, it is really hard to tell. These number are just based on is all of these games came out in august. Lifetimes sales could be quite different, but it depends on the titles. NSMB2 will have legs and probably will 10+mil by the time its done. I'm going to have to go with an unlikely, but it all depends on those titles.

Wow, you really did some research.


Thanks. I try to use the data when I can. If NSMB2 has the saturation rate of Mario 3D land, it will sell 8 million though. It could since there still isnt' that many big 3DS games, but among more software choices a mario game is competiting with a mario game, and therefore saturation has less of a chance to stay high. It will be a close call, but that's mostly because we don't know what those Vita games will be.

I'd say that NSMB2 gonna trample Mario 3D Land... 8 mill ain't gonna be a problem; if 3D land could get 6 mill in 6 months 2D Mario will easily get there in the same time span!



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