well Mario 3D has sold about 6 million, and the best selling vita game is at 550K. Going on that basis I would say you are probably correct.

I don't think you're being bold enough. Knowing how well Sony games sell on Sony platforms, and how big 2D Mario can be, you could easily throw in a 2x multiplier.

Wouldn't be surprising.

"Come at me, Sony bros"

@OP

You mentioned 10 PSV games showed at E3, but not only first partys, right? Which leaves us to any game: CoD, AssCreed, Killzone, GTVita. FFXHD? a port of Sony Smash? or maybe a GTA? While I don't believe the first three will sell a lot, GT and GTA could do well as happened on PSP (in case they were showed).

I was aware of that.

The thing is I doubt that NSMB2 will do as well as the fist one or the Wii version. I mean it is possible (easily) for this to happen, tough seeing current sw trends I doubt that we will see many if any 20 million + sellers on the 3DS

i'm not saying you're not right, but i'm also saying it will be hard to tell for sure. if you are comparing boxed to boxed sales it will be a slaughter but we all know there is some unknown about of digital sales on vita that we probably won't ever know about.

...that implies there will be 20 vita games announced at E3.  so you might as well just pit mario against the entire vita line-up as it will sound more impressive without any extra risk.

Not sure if you're forgetting that NSMB 2 will be digitally available too, or if you're just pre-emptively trolling Vita partisans.

oh right, i forgot about that.  that just makes it even harder to tell for sure. 

i don't think your second statement is a fair assumption.  no one in the games industry is very forth-coming with any sales info regardless of good or bad.