I dug up some old data for the US (NPD) I had and adjusted it from Jan-Dec to April-March years starting with April 1994-March 1995 and running through April 2011-March 2012. The console cycle is still in full effect...and if tradition holds the year to March 2013 is going to be dogshit for US consoles compared to previous highs even with Wii U (it will only be on the market for like five months of the 12), because Wii, PS2, X360, and PS3 should all decline in that time frame against their March 2012 year numbers which were 6.9m X360, 4.4m PS3, 4.0m Wii, and maybe 0.2m for PS2. It isn't hard to imagine the March 2013 year being 5m X360s, 3.6m PS3s, 2.5m Wiis, 2m Wii U - way down on the current fiscal year.

End of SNES Era to End of PS1 Era:

PS1 launched in late 1995, the March 1996 year, Saturn was in early 1995 but sold very badly. N64 launched in the March 1997 year. This era peaked in 1998 (the year to March 1999). It's likely the SNES era peaked in 1992 (FY March 1993) or 1993 (FY March 1994) and had already shrank for several years into 1994 / 1995 / 1996 which are the earliest years here. PS2 launched in the March 2001 year, but PS1 was bigger than PS2 in the March 2001 year.

PS2 Era:

GC / Xbox released in the March 2002 year. PS2 peaked in the March 2003 year - that was the peak of the cycle. Xbox actually peaked in 2004, with GC peaking in the year ending March 2004. PS2 had a peak over twice as high as its competitors though, so the three seperate peaks didn't prolong the generation. X360 launched in the March 2006 year after Microsoft somewhat prematurely killed off the original Xbox.

Wii Era:

Wii / PS3 launched in the year to March 2007. Wii sold 10.9m in the March 2009 year, that was the peak of the genration. Wii has already slowed from 11m to 4m over the past three years, so the industry is fairly likely to contract fairly substantially until there are three consoles to replace the four declining consoles.

During the second half of the following fiscal year, to March 2014 if the US industry still wants consoles that is (unlike say, Japan), there should be a massive recovery though, with X720 / PS4 / Wii U all growing as only PS3 / X360 will be seeing big declines.

How much of that "wii era" decline is because of the Wii alone though? Obviously 360 and PS3 will won't hit those highs anymore either, but I still think they have enough life for another year, especially after a price cut.

PS3 / X360 are down from their absolute peaks by 500,000 each so far (4.9m --> 4.4m, 7.4m --> 6.9m), Wii is down from its absolute peak by almost 7 million in the US in a 12 month period (10.9m --> 4.1m). I don't think price cuts are going to do it either - think about what the data means in absolute terms, the 21m people who bought a console in April 2008 to March 2009 has not been replicated in any year since despite all of the following demographic widening pushes across the four consoles:

A Wii price cut in September 2009, a Wii price cut in April 2011 (price fell from $250 to $200 to $150), retail discounts, new bundles

PS3 price cut / Slim launch in August / September 2009, Move in September 2010, PS3 price cut in August 2011, retail discounts, new bundles

X360 model clearance sales (various) / unending retail discounts, especially since Kinect slowed in mid-2011 / Kinect's launch & ongoing push, new bundles

PS2 price cut to $100 in April 2009, new bundles

The generation is almost over - if people were really "upgrading" to X360 / PS3 from Wii in large numbers you'd see the numbers flatlining at some point, maybe at 18m, instead of declining by almost 30% in the past three years. I actually think X360 / PS3 will be down 10-25% each this year - Sony isn't cutting by $100 - they have no money (just lost $6 billion in a year (!) ), and Microsoft isn't cutting by $100 if Sony isn't. X360 is already down by nearly 400,000 off its 2011 pace, and in % terms is trending for like a 5-5.5m year in calendar 2012, PS3 is trending for 3.5m-4.0m in calendar 2012, and Wii is trending for 3.0m -3.5m in calendar 2012. Three $50 price cuts by Fall 2012 won't do much - not when the US has bought 95 million current consoles in a time when we have only 125m households in the US. I figure there are like 60 million households that will buy one console, and 20 million that will buy two, and another 7 million that will buy all three - but we're still getting very close to full saturation even with the consoles offering additional services like playing old games (PSN, VC), TV content (Hulu, Netflix), internet, etc.

But the PS3 had record worldwide sales in 2011, it's still going strong.

It had a measly 1% increase YoY in 2011. 2010 was its last large increase. This year it will drop YoY as will 360.

Measly yes, but an increase it is. It's still got millions in it. 

When the PS3 and 360 start dropping like the Wii, then we can ring in the next gen quite happily. 

didn't the 360 also have its best year last year?

Yes! You're right! Both HD consoles are very healthy in terms of HW.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=142350&page=1

Another thanks to happydolphin for such a useful thread. ^

Next gen has started already.

By holiday 2013 they will all be out.

Dev kits are finalized (except maybe PS4 is still non-final kit, but it exists none-the-less) and devs all have new engines done or in work.

imo thats a funny thing to say seeing as how major games and announcements are still coming to light for the 360 and ps3 daily ( just today god of war 4 and halo 4's release date have been revealed )

while all we have to go on for their successors are unsubstantiated rumours that vary in terms of their claims from day to day