5 million by the end of 2012 is a decent number, I'd say. Like many (recent) Playstation products, I believe it will grow over time as it slowly builds up a better and better library and more people will think "Actually, it has enough games for me to warrant buying now". Like myself. I expect some time after LBP releases, when it'll have LBP/WipEout/Gravity Rush/Assassin's Creed, I'll think that's enough games.

Anyway, thanks for doing this, was an interesting read.

You are watching the threads like a hawk, sir! I accidently posted last weeks again and quickly changed it.

Funny, when the prediction was going down you failed to mention anything :P And that's a 4k increase resulting in a 400k difference end of year.

There is nothing wrong with it, I've explained how this thing works. It just so happens to be that that week was meant for a 5% decrease but actually received a 8.9% increase, so the difference is more substantial than the prediction previously applied. Every increase or decrease that differs from last years average hardware increase substantially changes the results on this graph. Over time the fluctuations will become less altering of the number as fewer and fewer weeks are applied to the current amount. As of right now 29 weeks remain, so any increase or decrease will be compounded.

Vita is dead.

Check out this wisenheimer.

Recent adjustments pin better sales than previously shown in March but lower sales in April and May.

This past week has seen a 56% spike in sales.  Thanks mostly to Japan which sold 33,837 Vitas compared to last weeks 13,542, a 40% increase. Notable software releases are Person 4 Golden selling 137,076 opening week according to Media Create.

Updated to June 16th with adjustments

 6,882,408 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Excellent! Hopefully it continues at this pace and manages 8 mil or so. That would be pretty good, I think.

Thanks for keeping up this thread, I find it very interesting.

8 million would be very good for Sony, Vita, and gamers. PSP managed somewhere around 9 million its first year. If it stays around that number things will be good, although Sony did tag 10 million as their expected mark. That all depends on the holiday season and the adoption in Japan, which June looks really good for Japan and could finally get them going on this handheld again.

Yeah, I think as long as it winds up north of 7 mil it's in good shape. I have no personal interest in owning a Vita, but it is very important to the industry, and I hope it eventually becomes quite profitable for Sony. I'd hate for analysts and investors to conclude that Nintendo is the only company capable of making a successful dedicated portable gaming console anymore. There needs to be room enough for two in that market, or it'll be in bad shape.

Vita had a good week but soon enough it will get back to 50k sales or less too bad