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Forums - Sales Discussion - We've Seen 2005-2007 Sales Now. What do you expect for LTD Sales?

Jandre02 on 12 January 2008
HappySqurriel said:
___O_o______ said:
I might be wrong, but I personally think that the Wii will decline at a faster pace. This is because the Wii has been bought by the majority of the loyal nintendo buyers already. This puts the brunt of the sales demographic onto casuals. Casuals are a very unstable market, going from one big thing to the next big thing very quickly. And i think that may become a problem for the Wii. Afterall, 2007 has been proclaimed as the year of the wii by many major news networks.

also, i don't think the Wii has the longevity to sell at that rate in the next three or four years. The technological advancements that will be in the news in the next two or three years will put the Wii in a weird position. It might seem a little too "last generation", because of its graphics, lack of media capabilities, and dependence on 1st party games. (3rd party games will for the most part tank, except for a handful. Just look at no more heroes or zack and wiki. they are some of the most promising games on the Wii, but zack and wiki has not sold well, and no more heroes has been reported to have had a luke warm launch in Japan.) It is sold solely as a mostly casual games console, with its first party titles, while the ps3 will be sold not only as a games console, but as a media hub.

all in all, here is my bold prediction:

The Wii will never reach over 70 million consoles LTD by the end of this generation.

Sue me... >_<

Was there ever any expectations that No More Heroes would sell in Japan?

Beyond that, the Wii has over 75 games that have sold more than 125,000 units (and 45 above 250,000) even though the vast majority of these games were crap. With the exception of a few games, every third party game worth owning on the Wii has broken even or turned a healthy profit.

 

As for the system's sales dropping off because it is "Too Last Generation" ... As long as there is a large (and growing) library of good games people will continue to buy a system; the average consumer has very little understanding of processing power and (realistically) could barely tell the difference between a PS3 game and a PS2 game.


 I wasnt under the impression that people buy the Wii for its games, other than Wii Sports and Wii Fit. Your making it seem like any games other than Mario and wii-watever sell well.  No the Wii wont sell because of its lineup, better games are on other systems. I doubt the Wii will reach the same total it did last year. Once it loses its momentum its dead. The PS3 will kill the Wii with superior third party games. Well see the Wii start declining once MGS4 and GTA4 hit.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 12 January 2008
Jandre02 said:
HappySqurriel said:
___O_o______ said:
I might be wrong, but I personally think that the Wii will decline at a faster pace. This is because the Wii has been bought by the majority of the loyal nintendo buyers already. This puts the brunt of the sales demographic onto casuals. Casuals are a very unstable market, going from one big thing to the next big thing very quickly. And i think that may become a problem for the Wii. Afterall, 2007 has been proclaimed as the year of the wii by many major news networks.

also, i don't think the Wii has the longevity to sell at that rate in the next three or four years. The technological advancements that will be in the news in the next two or three years will put the Wii in a weird position. It might seem a little too "last generation", because of its graphics, lack of media capabilities, and dependence on 1st party games. (3rd party games will for the most part tank, except for a handful. Just look at no more heroes or zack and wiki. they are some of the most promising games on the Wii, but zack and wiki has not sold well, and no more heroes has been reported to have had a luke warm launch in Japan.) It is sold solely as a mostly casual games console, with its first party titles, while the ps3 will be sold not only as a games console, but as a media hub.

all in all, here is my bold prediction:

The Wii will never reach over 70 million consoles LTD by the end of this generation.

Sue me... >_<

Was there ever any expectations that No More Heroes would sell in Japan?

Beyond that, the Wii has over 75 games that have sold more than 125,000 units (and 45 above 250,000) even though the vast majority of these games were crap. With the exception of a few games, every third party game worth owning on the Wii has broken even or turned a healthy profit.

 

As for the system's sales dropping off because it is "Too Last Generation" ... As long as there is a large (and growing) library of good games people will continue to buy a system; the average consumer has very little understanding of processing power and (realistically) could barely tell the difference between a PS3 game and a PS2 game.


 I wasnt under the impression that people buy the Wii for its games, other than Wii Sports and Wii Fit. Your making it seem like any games other than Mario and wii-watever sell well.  No the Wii wont sell because of its lineup, better games are on other systems. I doubt the Wii will reach the same total it did last year. Once it loses its momentum its dead. The PS3 will kill the Wii with superior third party games. Well see the Wii start declining once MGS4 and GTA4 hit.


 Dumbest argument ever, you really think most Wii owners will care one bit what GTA 4 is?  GTA only sells to a maximum of 15 million people, PS2 sold about 115 million, that means 100 million PS2 owners didn't buy GTA.

 You think most people care about headshotting aliens or blowing up robots?  



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Sm4ckd0wn on 12 January 2008

I think some people in this thread underestimate the amount of "hardcore" Wii owners there are. To say software other than Wii Sports and Wii Play aren't selling is a ridiculous statement. There are several million seller games on the Wii, and "hardcore" series such as Resident Evil have proven to sell well. If anything, people should be more worried about PS3 software sales (and they shouldn't).



Renar on 12 January 2008

CrazzyMan said:
Is PS3 numbers are Joke? =))

I mean, why SO Low?
1) Sony won Blu-ray battle. That will move additional hardware.
2) in 2008 PS3 will get BIGGEST games of these generation.

2007 - 2008:
America 2,726,861 - 3,300,000 - With lower price, with BIG games only +600k? +12k per week? Are you Nuts??

etc. etc.... 


 Two comments:

For America sales
PS3 Dec 2007 hi 228k  fall off in 2 wks to 74k  down 67%
PS3 Dec 2006 hi 122k  fall off in 2 wks to 94.7 down 22%
PS3 wasnt off 67% until mid-Feb. 07 from its Dec06 highs. 

To me that shows, while holiday sales are impressive, except for right around the releases, PS3 could still have a rough time this spring.  Not as poor as last year's, of course, but not tremendously better, either.

Point two:

01/08/07  63k sold.   01/07/08  69k sold.   +6k increase.   

Guess you're right, the Source overestimated this week's increase by 100%!  Nuts!

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

Sky Render on 12 January 2008

I hate to bring up an old topic, but honestly, who ever expects the companies who get into the video game industry to have gotten into it? A few of the old contenders, perhaps, but most of the new ones are surprising. Nintendo? Sure, they had a history with card games and the like, so it made some sense. Sega? They made coin-op games, so it wasn't such a big leap for them. But what about Sony? The people who make the Walkman and those camcorders, making a game console? It sounded downright absurd back in the early 90s, Sony didn't do video game systems! And Microsoft? The guys who make Windows, the software giant, going into gaming hardware? Yeah right, it'll never happen (except it did).

My point is that what a company does now doesn't determine what it's going to do in the future. Companies get into new markets all the time to test the waters and see if they can't get a new cash cow. I'm not saying it's going to happen (I hate predicting the future), but I am saying that it can, and if it does, it will likely catch most everybody off guard. If such a thing did happen, this new contender could be bad for Nintendo and eat away the casual market, it could become new competition for MS and Sony for the hardcore market, it could turn out to be yet another underperformer like the CD-i or 3DO, or it could even end up a dead-in-the-water project that never sees production like the Phantom.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

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ismael on 12 January 2008

i see the wii with higher numbers at the end, above all in japan



Fastrabbit09 on 12 January 2008

people continually bring up gta4

the casuals don't care about gta4

8/9 ps2 owners did NOT buy gta for ps2

my parents, my sis-in-law, my grandparents, retirement homes, rehab centers, gyms, my aunts, etc etc....none of these people care about gta4 nor did any of these people buy ps2...but they are all buying the wii

u cannot stick to old industry trends when predicting the wii because it is selling to people who NEVER before bought a console



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
___O_o______ on 12 January 2008

@Fast Rabbit

You can't generalize that people buying the Wii have never bought a console before. That is a very ignorant thing to say because there have been several generations of consoles, SNES, Playstation 1, Atari, Playstation 2, N64, DS, Gameboy, etc. The total sales of all of those previous consoles combined is a few hundred million. Seriously, what are the odds that people have never bought these consoles?

And don't say casuals don't care about gta4 without anything to back it up. the whole franchise has sold well over 50 million. GTA is a very valuable franchise, and to say that casuals don't care about it is very ignorant.



FishyJoe on 12 January 2008

If anything, the casual market lags the hardcore market. That would suggest that Wii sales should increase as awareness amongst the casual grows. As for the casual market being unreliable and drying up, that would defy the history of the PS2 and DS where the casual market increased, not decreased, several years after launch.



___O_o______ on 12 January 2008

@fishyJoe

The Wii will run out of casuals IMO. The ps2 picked up tens of millions of casuals and turned them into gamers. These former casuals are eyeing the ps3 or 360 in this generation, while a smaller percent are eyeing the Wii. I am guessing that the Wii's customers are any casuals left who didn't pick up a ps2. That, to me, means a smaller casual market than the ps2.