Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony is the next Nintendo

Last year we had an article on VGC that focused on the subject of Sony is the next Nintendo. While back then it was vigorously mocked by the rabid Nintendo fanbase on this website, now is a good time to take another look. Why? Because the PlayStation Vita just recently launched worldwide.

VGC lists total PSV software sales as 1.55m, but we know from an official Sony statement that, including digital sales that are not counted by VGC, the software total has already exceeded two million units. Of these 1.55m units, Sony Computer Entertainment accounts for 0.77m units, so roughly 50 %.

1 Uncharted: Golden Abyss PSV 2011 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.33
2 Hot Shots Golf PSV 2011 Sports Sony Computer Entertainment 0.01 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.15
3 Little Deviants PSV 2011 Platform Sony Computer Entertainment 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.12
4 Gravity Daze PSV 2012 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.06
5 Wipeout 2048 PSV 2012 Racing Sony Computer Entertainment 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.05
6 Shinobido 2: Tales of the Ninja PSV 2011 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
7 Modnation Racers: Road Trip PSV 2012 Racing Sony Computer Entertainment 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
8 Minna to Issho PSV 2011 Misc Sony Computer Entertainment 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01
9 Monster Radar PSV 2011 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01
10 Reality Fighters PSV 2012 Fighting Sony Computer Entertainment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Since it's reasonable to assume that SCE holds at least the same share in digital sales for titles that are available in both physical and digital forms, plus a higher share in sales of digital only games because of titles like Super Stardust Delta and less third party competition, it's plausible that SCE accounts for the majority of PSV software sales. In other words, Sony clearly dominates software sales on their own platform.

Therefore, Sony is the next Nintendo.

So the question I ask is this a good strategy for Sony going forward? If they don't leave much room for third party software to succeed, then why should third parties continue to support this system? The only three games to break the 100k barrier in retail sales so far are all Sony titles which suggests that only Sony games can sell on this Sony system.

And let's suppose third parties do continue to support this handheld. What kind of games can we expect? If casual games like Hot Shots Golf and Little Deviants account for 66 % of the PSV's topselling games, then why should third parties bother with development of hardcore games? It seems to be pretty clear what kind of game the average PSV owner wants and it's not Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3, BlazBlue, Rayman Origins, Disgaea or Ninja Gaiden.

Update: Week ending March 3rd brings the retail software total to 1.74m, SCE accounts for 0.88m. Sony's share increases from 49.1 % to 50.6 %.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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They can move to Xbox platform.

Since it's becoming clear that Nintendo fans want to play Nintendo games and Sony fans are now playing more Sony games what will Microsoft do when there are no more 3rd party games left to steal?

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This is only about PSV right? The PS3 has definitely not gone down that route.

About VITA, I think we should wait until at least E3, there are many announcements to be made, and many announcements that have already been made, including many AAA non-casual possibly system-selling games like Call of Duty, Bioshock and Assassins Creed, all of which are 3rd party. I see where you're coming from though when looking at that launch line-up, but I don't think it represents the big picture for games on VITA.

Will we see more casual games on it than what's previously been on SONY consoles? Probably. But I think we'll also see 3rd parties do well a long with the non-casual SONY IPs like Uncharted, Gran Turismo and new SONY IPs do very well.

Also, keep in mind Little Deviants was heavily bundled and Hot Shots Golf only does really good numbers in one region. The sales Hot shots golf achieved would be laughable compared to what an MGS or MH launch title could of done in Japan, and those aren't casual games, far from it.

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I would have to wait at least a year before deciding. A few weeks of data is not much to go on. But it is plausible, I do not think its a wise strategy though.

I think we have to wait for the PSV to be out a whole year, or the very least untill after E3, to see which way it goes. As of yet they're NOT the new Nintendo: PS3 relize heavily on third party support and it's to soon to know regarding PSV...

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RolStoppable said:

Sony is the next Nintendo

They're doomed?

This must be why the likes of Capcom haven't announced much for the Vita. It makes perfect sense to send out some test games first.