Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

 

My speech was about the potential for growth of social gaming. I am pretty sure it was taped and posted on gamerlive.tv

The Wii U comment was in response to a question about the potential for the Wii U.

I believe (and please feel free to disagree) that a large portion of the Wii audience comprised casual gamers--those who bought one or two games a year the first two years, then put the Wii aside--and that those casual gamers moved on to another platform. The "other" platform may have been Facebook games, smart phone games, tablet games, or one of the other consoles, but once they moved on, they are not likely to come back.

At the same time, I believe (again, please feel free to disagree) that the growth of smart phones and tablets has attracted many potential dedicated handheld game customers, and these people also are unlikely to come back to either 3DS or PS Vita.

Summing this up, I think the addressable market for the Wii U is around half of the market for the Wii, and I think Microsoft and Sony will compete for a portion of that market if the Wii U is priced too high. I think that the dedicated handheld market is permanently impacted by smart phones and tablets, and think that Nintendo's addressable market is probably also half of its former market.

Nintendo is in disarray because they waited too long to launch the Wii U. I know that this sounds like (and is) sour grapes because they didn't launch the Wii HD in 2009 or 2010 as I "predicted". They should have, and because they didn't, the decline in Wii and DS hardware and software sales drove them into generating LOSSES. For those of you who aren't financial analysts, losses mean that the company is worth less than it was before. Nintendo stock has dropped by over 80% in the last few years, and the market has appreciated over the same period. I'm paid to advise investors, and none have made a profit owning Nintendo stock. I don't think that many will make a profit over the next few years, because I don't think Nintendo's strategy will return them to profitability.

If the context above infuriates you, go back to school and pay attention, then read it again

 

some blasphony link is on vgchartz home page whats with this patcher guy hes so biased against nintendo  .   but since his guesses are wrong all the time  , 

 

my take is that nintendo will be fine and pft dont need saving  in fact nintendo can come out tommorow with a gameboy   , and this guy will still be saying " this is the last gen of handhelds  and what losses there was only 1 loss that was last quarter patcher you really did your self in once again ,  

 

telling everyone to go to school huh? wow gamers look at this guys remark ( go back to school pay attention read it again?) if i was his boss he woulda been fired  after the gamecube gen 

 

sorry patcher your just as weak as they come   even my prediction about nintendo was more right ha ha ha and you probably paid big bucks to go to some fancy collage haha --  yet i didnt need to haha    

 

its pretty pathetic pacther thinks this about nintendo after 20 yrs in the industry of gaming and 100 yrs overall   in the world 

nintendo is smart ,   they always find ways , ,  just you sit there and watch .  as 16 m 3ds vs 8 million dses ,,  and 

hmm wii u flys off shelves to 



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No need to respond to the lunatic. Whatever negatives pachter says about nintendo has always meant
good fortunes for them which make me believe the future is definately bright for nintendo

gameheart said:
No need to respond to the lunatic. Whatever negatives pachter says about nintendo has always meant
good fortunes for them which make me believe the future is definately bright for nintendo

Well, to be fair, he is right about Nintendo's stock and their losses.

He called recently the Wii as a "fad", and becuase of that and Kinect its sales were declining fast. The same with smartphones and tablets against dedicated portable gaming. The point I believe he's forgetting, is that Kinect and smartphones/tablets can be fads as the Wii and many other thousand of things before in this world.



Bet With Tbone - I win if SSB for 3DS will be less than 200k first week in Japan

well he may be right about the stock and losses but this was nintendos first loss ! in some 20 yrs sorry thats not evidence of a dead company

The only hardware that is affected by "trends" is always Nintendo's on the whole and Sony's handheld. Coincidently, these are the same machines that Western third parties wouldn't mind going away.

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goldeneye0074eva2222 said:
well he may be right about the stock and losses but this was nintendos first loss ! in some 20 yrs sorry thats not evidence of a dead company

He is not saying Nintendo is a dead company, but Wii U market is not the same as the Wii one 'cause it has been reduced to a half and it could have a hard time if it's priced to high.

Anyway, market is very un-predictable, so no matter how many time he repeats, just like the Wii HD.



Bet With Tbone - I win if SSB for 3DS will be less than 200k first week in Japan

For information on stocks please visit my VGStocks thread (in my sig). Nintendo's trend fell post 2009 like many other japanese devs, and this is due to the cyclical nature of the gaming market, along with the trends of the Nikkei. Pachter is an idiot, there is no doubt about that.

About WiiHD, he didn't say Nintendo should release it, he said they would. Now he's just sounding silly.

happydolphin said:
For information on stocks please visit my VGStocks thread (in my sig). Nintendo's trend fell post 2009 like many other japanese devs, and this is due to the cyclical nature of the gaming market, along with the trends of the Nikkei. Pachter is an idiot, there is no doubt about that.

About WiiHD, he didn't say Nintendo should release it, he said they would. Now he's just sounding silly.

Nintendo stock decline was not part of a "cyclical nature of gaming", nintendo stock was in a bubble from 2006 to mid 2008, it was trading two standard deviation above anything in its catagory.  the stock was up close to 300 percent in a 12 month period, no other gaming stock was matching that run and no company benefit from their growth to that extent.  The stock crash forshadowed the end of the Wii/DS growth by a 18 months.



Pavolink said:
gameheart said:
No need to respond to the lunatic. Whatever negatives pachter says about nintendo has always meant
good fortunes for them which make me believe the future is definately bright for nintendo

Well, to be fair, he is right about Nintendo's stock and their losses.

He called recently the Wii as a "fad", and becuase of that and Kinect its sales were declining fast. The same with smartphones and tablets against dedicated portable gaming. The point I believe he's forgetting, is that Kinect and smartphones/tablets can be fads as the Wii and many other thousand of things before in this world.

Kinect maybe, but smartphones I don't think so, people are morte and more gonna see mobile phones as a need rather than a luxury, and more and more they are going to see smartphones as also a need, or at least a justifiable upgrade on what is already a needful item. Xbox and Kinect will bever be viewed by the "casual" audience as a need; only gamer geeks think their console is a need.

I disagree with is comment that dedicated HH gamers will / have migrated to smartphones / tablets. Maybe he's using dedicated in a different context to what I'm thinking but I think the casual gamer (i.e. those who are happy with angry birds and cut the rope asa the extent of sophistication in gaming they are happy with) is for sure mostly lost to 3DS and Vita. No way the casual HH gamer makes up 1/2 of DS's market. But you can bet all the ladies Olivia Newton-John was advertising to with the DS have moved on and won;t be buying a 3DS. So I think perhaps 1/4 to 1/3 of the DS market is lost to the 3DS.

I think Nintendo are really missing a market here. They should take a leaf deom Apple's book. Apple was NOT a phone company, but they had a decent fanbase through first the computers then the iPods. Nintendo should make their own phone. Pair up with RIM so that they don't occupy the same OS as Sony (Android) and put out a DSphone.

I know all y'all DS fans would buy, don't try to tell me otherwise.

I don't think many people have gone from Wii to smartphone or tablet. Totally different reasons behind getting a Wii and a compelling Wii U experience will bring them back to the console in front of the TV. I think Wii U has lost some market share to Kinect and Nextbox+Kinect though. It seems pretty clear that about 250 million is the upper limit for number of consoles likely to be sold this generation. This gen could be the peak gen for consoles and the limit next gen might be 200 million. That's still plenty of console sales for each of the players to maintain a credible install base. I think it will be closer to evenly shared next gen with about 70 million each. But if MS and Sony get their "media hub" concept and marketing right then the console market potential could grow next gen. However if Nintendo keep their reputation as only a box for playing games then they may not be well positioned for those who are looking for more than just a console to attach to their TV.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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I love how he ignores how the forces Nintendo has no control over are the primary contributor to their losses

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