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3DS 2012 vs DS 2005-2011

Forums - Sales Discussion - 3DS 2012 vs DS 2005-2011

How well will the 3DS perform in 2012?

It will sell better than the DS ever did! 19 39.58%
 
It won't match the DS' ... 9 18.75%
 
Roughly as much as 2009? 1 2.08%
 
Above 2006/2010, below 2009 4 8.33%
 
Somewhere between 2005 and 2006/2010 5 10.42%
 
Less than 2005, more than 2011 1 2.08%
 
It will sell worse than the DS ever did! 2 4.17%
 
I'm boring and won't tr... 6 12.50%
 
I don't understand the question 1 2.08%
 
Total:48

A while back, Killeryoshis did a very interesting comparison of the 3DS' first year against the DS' first year. The year is over now, though, and that way of comparing (which means comparing october months to May, December to July, etc) isn't what I think is the fairest way to compare numbers.

So, instead, I decided to make a comparison between the 3DS' 2012 against all the DS years on the market. From the start of the year up to now, the situation is as follows. Note that I've started the weeks at the closest date to the 7th of January (ie, the very first few days of the years aren't included, as the holiday sales from that would end up skewing the comparison.

  2005 - DS 2006 - DS 2007 - DS 2008 - DS  2009 - DS  2010 - DS 2011 - DS 2012 - 3DS
Amount sold in the first 5 weeks 392,000 812,000 1,807,000 1,768,000 1,911,000 1,547,000 1,053,000 1,160,000
Sales for the full 52 weeks 10,991,000 20,776,000 29,508,000 29,663,000 27,573,000 20,835,000 8,856,000 ???

(For the record, I believe the Wii holds the record of the highest year of any non-DS machine, at 24.2 million)

 

How well do you think the 3DS can do? Will it see an amazing boost and beat even the best DS year? Will it fall off and end dead last? Will it end somewhere in between?

 

Edit: Above is the original post, below is from 26th March. I think a thread like this fits being updated roughly every 5 weeks. The following are the sales from (roughly) 11th February to 16th March each year

 

  2005 - DS 2006 - DS 2007 - DS 2008 - DS 2009 - DS 2010 - DS 2011 - DS 2012 - 3DS
Amount sold in weeks 6-10 782,000 999,000 2,290,000 1,934,000 1,603,000 1,657,000 1,065,000 1,021,000

 

 

 

Which definitely isn't a very good outlook for the 3DS. It's actually selling less than the DS did in the same period last year, and just barely matching the 2006 sales, which are pre-DS lite.

Considering that, 20 million is looking to be on the optimistic side of the range now. 16 million, or something ala that, seems more likely.



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Can't see it touching the DS's top year, that was just too godly. To be honest best case scenario is 2006/2010 levels in my mind.



I'd expect around 16-18 milions due to not so hot EU/US numbers.



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I guess it depends on what games release, but I think it will manage around 20 million. I don't see any way it could fail to top 2011 and 2005, tbh I would be surprised if it didn't manage 2011 yearly figures in the final quarter alone.



Slightly above 2006/2010 numbers (i.e. 21 million), provided they don't mess up Super Mario Bros. 3DS by putting in Miis or even worse stuff.



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The DS numbers for 2007-2009 are just phenomenal. Can't see the 3DS ever reaching those levels.

With 2D Mario WW this Year and Pokemon in Japan, this Year I can see a potential 20 Million Year... It's probably gonna need a revision this Year along with the 2 games (and maybe add a MH/DQ/BT to the mix too) to top 25 Million.



Carl2291 said:
The DS numbers for 2007-2009 are just phenomenal. Can't see the 3DS ever reaching those levels.

With 2D Mario WW this Year and Pokemon in Japan, this Year I can see a potential 20 Million Year... It's probably gonna need a revision this Year along with the 2 games (and maybe add a MH/DQ/BT to the mix too) to top 25 Million.


It did sell quite amazing. In the most recent week, the Ps3, X360, Wii, PsP and PsV combined sold less than the DS did in the equivalent week of 2007. I don't think the 3DS is ever going to quite match that, but 25 million should be within reach next year.



The DS was nasty.



It should hit 20 million, I imagine



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I updated the opening post. These are the sales from week 6-10 for each year.

  2005 - DS 2006 - DS 2007 - DS 2008 - DS 2009 - DS 2010 - DS 2011 - DS 2012 - 3DS
Amount sold in weeks 6-10 782,000 999,000 2,290,000 1,934,000 1,603,000 1,657,000 1,065,000 1,021,000

 

It's not looking very good for the 3DS. It's selling less than the DS did in the same period in 2011 (its 7th year!), and barely matching the DS' 2006 sales. Remember that those DS sales are DS phat sales, as the lite didn't launch until June 2006 in the west.  It's also selling less than half of what the DS did in 2007.

20 million for the year, which seemed the most likely 5 weeks ago, looks quite optimistic now. I figure a 16 million or so is more likely.