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Media Create Sales 1/30 ~ 2/5

Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create Sales 1/30 ~ 2/5

RolStoppable said:

I perfectly got what he is saying. Not even Nintendo could have been successful with a $250 handheld beyond the short term. Expecting the PSV to do well at $250/$300 if only it had the right games coming out is pretty much the same as believing the PS3 could have been a huge hit at $500 or more if only Sony and third parties got out all the big hits in time. As long as price remains a barrier, you cannot expect massmarket penetration; and most people aren't willing to suddenly pay more than their norm for a gaming system when they know that the price will eventually come down.

Fair enough. To begin, your comparing the 3DS' Y1 against the PSV's upcoming Y1 is not a fair comparison. To explain, here are scenarios where Sony cannot deliver on big guns (sorry), while Nintendo could have. If you blame the 3DS' underwhelming sales only on pricepoint, you'll have no way to ensure it wasn't due rather to a lack of big hit games, or at least a mix of both pricepoint and big hit games. Put it this way: At 250$, with no big hit games, who will bite? In other words, you're missing the scenario where the 3DS released with big guns.

Now why did the 3DS launch fail? The 3DS did not get big guns at launch except for Nintendogs which, granted, is a massive seller. However, first and foremost, it appeals to an audience where a lower pricepoint works (the casual, female and elderly). Now had 3DLand, Mario Kart and MH released when the console was at 250$, in all realism, I can't see the sales results being much different from what we saw holiday 2011. Or, to be more fair, had the 3DS launched in holiday 2011 at 250$ with those hit games, I would've expected similar results. However, since Nintendo wanted to penetrate the market sooner than holidays so as to ensure momentum, and since big guns shouldn't really be released too far from holiday season, the big N was in a catch 22 priced at 250$. Even at 200$, they wouldn't have generated the interest to ensure 16mil unit sales (which ramped up as of August due to pricecut). Ultimately, they should have released the console at 200$, released lots of casual titles and important retro franchises (such as 2D Megaman and 2D Castlevania) for it to ensure a measure of core, then come holiday 2011, launch all the big guns and stay at 200$, projecting a 10Mil unit sale for the system. Thus, they would've guaranteed a solid pricepoint for the console throughout its lifetime, and alienated neither casual nor core (no worries launching some casual hits at launch, it's a launch).

Now the PS3 at 600$ is a 300$ increase over regular console prices. With a 250$ pricepoint being an 80$ increase over regular Nintendo handheld prices, I'm not sure this is a fair comparison. Next, Sony does not have the hits Nintendo has period, bar Gran Turismo. (See LBP Kart thread) Assuming Sony could have Mario, MH and Mario Kart, maybe its success would have been much greater despite the staggering price (even 500$ as you suggest could have made it possible). People buy the iPad at 400$, of course they can do alot with it, but strong tantalizing apps sell hardware especially if the IPs are properly handled.

Bottom line: Nintendo needed to reduce its projection and change strategies for Y1. 10Mil versus 16M is not a big deal, devs will support it at 10Million units, it didn't need a 16M userbase Y1. Focusing on casual titles at launch to herald the runner-up to the DS and encouraging 3rd parties to release their equivalents of NSMB, and at a more reasonable casual pricepoint, this should have held the 3DS up for the first half of its Y1, until holidays where they could launch the big guns.

Ultimately, pricing and game leverage are two ingredients that if properly managed can be optimised to sell maximal volumes. At 250$, at holiday season with big hits, the Vita could sell in droves, but that's not happening; big hits are a Nintendo thing. The Playstation brand sells on variety and long-term, not on explosive hits.



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Carl2291 said:
RolStoppable said:

The 3DS has still problems at $170 (as February and March NPDs will show), so there's no reason to believe that it would have done well with all the same games and a $250 price tag.

That can be blamed on the Vita being released, stealing some of the interest... And of course, them having to rush Mario Kart into the Holidays. It would have been the big killer app for the first Quarter for them.

You proposed that the 3DS should have been launched in October or November 2011. Now you say that the Vita stole at least some of the interest. Wouldn't that effect have been greater, if the 3DS and PSV launched almost side by side at roughly the same price tag?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

happydolphin said:

Fair enough. To begin, your comparing the 3DS' Y1 against the PSV's upcoming Y1 is not a fair comparison. To explain, here are scenarios where Sony cannot deliver on big guns (sorry), while Nintendo could have. If you blame the 3DS' underwhelming sales only on pricepoint, you'll have no way to ensure it wasn't due rather to a lack of big hit games, or at least a mix of both pricepoint and big hit games. Put it this way: At 250$, with no big hit games, who will bite? In other words, you're missing the scenario where the 3DS released with big guns.

Now why did the 3DS launch fail? The 3DS did not get big guns at launch except for Nintendogs which, granted, is a massive seller. However, first and foremost, it appeals to an audience where a lower pricepoint works (the casual, female and elderly). Now had 3DLand, Mario Kart and MH released when the console was at 250$, in all realism, I can't see the sales results being much different from what we saw holiday 2011. Or, to be more fair, had the 3DS launched in holiday 2011 at 250$ with those hit games, I would've expected similar results. However, since Nintendo wanted to penetrate the market sooner than holidays so as to ensure momentum, and since big guns shouldn't really be released too far from holiday season, the big N was in a catch 22 priced at 250$. Even at 200$, they wouldn't have generated the interest to ensure 16mil unit sales (which ramped up as of August due to pricecut). Ultimately, they should have released the console at 200$, released lots of casual titles and important retro franchises (such as 2D Megaman and 2D Castlevania) for it to ensure a measure of core, then come holiday 2011, launch all the big guns and stay at 200$, projecting a 10Mil unit sale for the system. Thus, they would've guaranteed a solid pricepoint for the console throughout its lifetime, and alienated neither casual nor core (no worries launching some casual hits at launch, it's a launch).

Now the PS3 at 600$ is a 300$ increase over regular console prices. With a 250$ pricepoint being an 80$ increase over regular Nintendo handheld prices, I'm not sure this is a fair comparison. Next, Sony does not have the hits Nintendo has period, bar Gran Turismo. (See LBP Kart thread) Assuming Sony could have Mario, MH and Mario Kart, maybe its success would have been much greater despite the staggering price (even 500$ as you suggest could have made it possible). People buy the iPad at 400$, of course they can do alot with it, but strong tantalizing apps sell hardware especially if the IPs are properly handled.

Bottom line: Nintendo needed to reduce its projection and change strategies for Y1. 10Mil versus 16M is not a big deal, devs will support it at 10Million units, it didn't need a 16M userbase Y1. Focusing on casual titles at launch to herald the runner-up to the DS and encouraging 3rd parties to release their equivalents of NSMB, and at a more reasonable casual pricepoint, this should have held the 3DS up for the first half of its Y1, until holidays where they could launch the big guns.

Ultimately, pricing and game leverage are two ingredients that if properly managed can be optimised to sell maximal volumes. At 250$, at holiday season with big hits, the Vita could sell in droves, but that's not happening; big hits are a Nintendo thing. The Playstation brand sells on variety and long-term, not on explosive hits.

You have been a big advocate for Nintendo needing to do everything to increase third party support for their systems. Sony had the majority of third party support in the handheld space in the last couple of years. The tides wouldn't be turning by selling 10m 3DSes in one year, because third parties would have expected the PSV to do the same, thus things would continue as they ended for the DS vs. PSP. Sony would get all the big games, Nintendo the scraps.

Nintendo absolutely needed to crush the PSV in order to have a chance to cause a shift in third party support. Lowering the original projection drastically would have sealed Nintendo's fate and in two years time all you would be playing on the 3DS in terms of third party games would have been Imagine: More Babiez.

My original point: The 3DS and PSV problems are/were caused by both, lack of big games and too high price, not only one or the other. So logically, the 3DS and PSV problems cannot/couldn't be solved by only addressing one or the other.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:

You have been a big advocate for Nintendo needing to do everything to increase third party support for their systems. Sony had the majority of third party support in the handheld space in the last couple of years. The tides wouldn't be turning by selling 10m 3DSes in one year, because third parties would have expected the PSV to do the same, thus things would continue as they ended for the DS vs. PSP. Sony would get all the big games, Nintendo the scraps.

Nintendo absolutely needed to crush the PSV in order to have a chance to cause a shift in third party support. Lowering the original projection drastically would have sealed Nintendo's fate and in two years time all you would be playing on the 3DS in terms of third party games would have been Imagine: More Babiez.

My original point: The 3DS and PSV problems are/were caused by both, lack of big games and too high price, not only one or the other. So logically, the 3DS and PSV problems cannot/couldn't be solved by only addressing one or the other.

@bold. Glad you can still make me laugh.

@10M vs 16M. Selling 10M units before your competitor should reassure 3rd parties, especially if they are encouraged to launch New Megaman or New Castlevania as hit flagships (with marketing and AAA effort just like RE:R) and are taking part in the success 1 year in advance. Then, once Nintendo jumps in, they are encouraged to make games like RE:R. With 10M units 3DS units sold prior to competitor, and with the DS getting excellent 3rd party support all through its lifecycle with that same a much lesser time advantage over PSP, I don't see the worry.

(EDIT: stikethrough explained -> PSP launched 4 months after DS in NA, same time as DS in JN, 6 months later in EU.)

@original-point. Agree to disagree. Monster apps with deadly appeal and excellent marketing defeat mildly excessive pricepoint. With lack of a counter-example apart from the iPad, I'm at a loss.



happydolphin said:

@bold. Glad you can still make me laugh.

@10M vs 16M. Selling 10M units before your competitor should reassure 3rd parties, especially if they are encouraged to launch New Megaman or New Castlevania as hit flagships (with marketing and AAA effort just like RE:R) and are taking part in the success 1 year in advance. Then, once Nintendo jumps in, they are encouraged to make games like RE:R. With 10M units 3DS units sold prior to competitor, and with the DS getting excellent 3rd party support all through its lifecycle with that same a much lesser time advantage over PSP, I don't see the worry.

@original-point. Agree to disagree. Monster apps with deadly appeal and excellent marketing defeat mildly excessive pricepoint. With lack of a counter-example apart from the iPad, I'm at a loss.

You put too much trust in third parties. You also should take another look at the release schedules and software sales for the DS and PSP from mid-2009 onwards. You see nothing to worry about, because you have been oblivious of how the market has developed.

What is that iPad thing about? We are talking about video game systems, for god's sake.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:
happydolphin said:

@bold. Glad you can still make me laugh.

@10M vs 16M. Selling 10M units before your competitor should reassure 3rd parties, especially if they are encouraged to launch New Megaman or New Castlevania as hit flagships (with marketing and AAA effort just like RE:R) and are taking part in the success 1 year in advance. Then, once Nintendo jumps in, they are encouraged to make games like RE:R. With 10M units 3DS units sold prior to competitor, and with the DS getting excellent 3rd party support all through its lifecycle with that same a much lesser time advantage over PSP, I don't see the worry.

@original-point. Agree to disagree. Monster apps with deadly appeal and excellent marketing defeat mildly excessive pricepoint. With lack of a counter-example apart from the iPad, I'm at a loss.

You put too much trust in third parties. You also should take another look at the release schedules and software sales for the DS and PSP from mid-2009 onwards. You see nothing to worry about, because you have been oblivious of how the market has developed.

What is that iPad thing about? We are talking about video game systems, for god's sake.

@iPad. It's a portable with software apps. The type of software does not matter since they both target a similar consumer (casual and mass).

@DS-3rd-party. I see heavy 3rd party support for the DS. Quantity =/= quality. What is your argument?



happydolphin said:

@iPad. It's a portable with software apps. The type of software does not matter since they both target a similar consumer (casual and mass).

@DS-3rd-party. I see heavy 3rd party support for the DS. Quantity =/= quality. What is your argument?

You are delusional.

And yes, that is my argument.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
happydolphin said:

@iPad. It's a portable with software apps. The type of software does not matter since they both target a similar consumer (casual and mass).

@DS-3rd-party. I see heavy 3rd party support for the DS. Quantity =/= quality. What is your argument?

You are delusional.

And yes, that is my argument.

Thanks, that helps. Now I understand much more what you meant.



happydolphin said:
RolStoppable said:

You are delusional.

And yes, that is my argument.

Thanks, that helps. Now I understand much more what you meant.

If you don't take me seriously, then you shouldn't be surprised when I treat you the same way.

I told you to take another look at the third party support for handhelds. The Japanese market is the most important one here, because approximately 95 % of the worthwile handheld games are developed in this country. Western publishers hardly give a damn about handhelds and if anything, they are moving towards iOS and Android.

In 2010, 22m units of DS software were sold and 16.5m units of PSP software. Since we are talking about third party support, we need to exclude first party software sales. On Sony's side, there's not much to deduct, because Sony's first party is basically non-existent on handhelds. On Nintendo's side, you have 5m units of Pokémon and 1m Tomodachi Collection, plus evergreens like NSMB and MK DS that each moved about a quarter of a million units. So for 2010, the PSP beat the DS in third party software sales despite an installed base that is only half the DS's; and if you scroll through the list of the yearly topsellers you'll easily find more high profile third party titles for the PSP which explains why the PSP won.

For 2011, a transitional year, I will combine DS and 3DS as well as PSP and PSV. 14.4m software units for Nintendo, 15.2m for Sony. These are the numbers that still include first party software and Nintendo already lost. Adjusting for third party software puts Nintendo at least 5m units below Sony.

If you had looked at these numbers, you wouldn't have come back with an answer like "I see heavy 3rd party support for the DS." The other option would be that you looked at them, but couldn't comprehend what you were seeing, but I rule this option out.

Despite the worldwide DS and Wii success, Nintendo in the eighth generation is basically in exactly the same spot they were in at the beginning of the seventh generation. Parity or slightly beating Sony in the hardware race just doesn't cut it and you should be worried.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Im on my phone so I wont quote.

I never said the Vita stole any momentum, Im saying it will do in sone form in the Feb/Mar NPD. They no longer have a big game to release, where as they had Mario Kart planned before it was rushed into 2011. With MK it would have still had the huge momentum despite Vita launch.