So, we're now out of the holiday rush. Nintendo has completely depleted any stockpiles they had, and they've put Wiis into the hands of over 6 million new owners since November.
Nintendo is still producing (or has the capacity to produce) at least 1.8 million consoles per month.
The billion-dollar question (for Nintendo) is, how much longer will the Wii continue to be instantly sold-out? Did they catch up to demand with the holiday surge? Will they create even more demand with Wii Fit, Brawl, and Mario Kart in the first half of this year? Will 1.8 million consoles per month be a surplus, or will Nintendo increase production again?
I think it's pretty clear from Japanese sales data that Nintendo caught up with demand in September, when sales plummetted, hitting a low of 20,000 consoles per week in October. But in America and Others, sales were flat right up to the holiday rush. Will sales in Japan return to their pre-holiday lows, or has Wii Fit sparked additional demand?
Remember, since August, Nintendo was producing more than it was selling in order to stock up for the holiday rush. So they have the capacity to continue selling steadily at higher levels than pre-holidays. Without batting an eye, Nintendo can do 450,000 per week WW, if the demand is still there. Depending on Japan figures (which should be in later today?), they may have done exactly that in the first week after the holidays. How long will this continue?