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Why the Vita will beat out the 3DS

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happydolphin said:

1) The new combo is more interesting I believe (opinion, not based on sales data, but based on my gut feeling). With the right momentum, these could foster a healthy ecosystem on the Vita.

2) Lots of opinion in here. It's not just the number of games that is greater, the games are more compelling in general.

Not bad at all imho.

3) No release date for LBP yet, but it looks like it will be mid to end 2012. Anyway it's 2012 for sure. I knew that, hence why I used the term launch window in my Mario Land,  MK argument in the last post I made. UC may do better than you expect, being flagship to a portable, better priced and generally more affordable. If not the first entry, the 2nd entry may exceed your expectations given a better gamer install  base for the Vita, as compared to a pirate install base on the PSP, as it were.

4) So, I did my homework buddy, and here is the breakdown of the top 50 PSP games.

Of the top 50, 19 are West-only, 1 is Japan-only (MH Freedom 3), 8 sold better in Japan (MH Freedom 2, Dissidia: FF, Hot Shots Golf, MGS: PW, KH: BbS, MH Freedom, World Soccer Winning Eleven 9, MGS: Portable Ops), 3 sold nearly as much in the west as in Japan (FF:CC, GT, RR, FF: Tactics). The 19 others sold massively more in the west. Here is the full list:

So yeah, I disagree. :P

5) Ahh, gotcha. So MS helps PS when PS is in the weaker position. Since the PS2 had PS as king it didn't apply to that scenario. I get you now. So in the case of 3DS vs Vita, without MS things are less optimistic for PS. That's assuming that the Vita will perform like the PS3. Adding this to your answer to my qtn earlier (which was "how did PSP achieve 20Mil in America?"), then you may ultimately be right. OK.

6) And that's DOA since we know that won't happen (they don't have that SW brand power)... Wow, you're steps ahead of me. Good job.

However, the appeal to play said games on a fancy piece of HW, in the intimacy of your room if desired, or on the go... If the broader audience bites, it may fly. But Sony doesn't have the software to attract said audience other than LBP sometime 2012. I'm about to give up playing Devil's Advocate. Then again, a different momentum for Vita versus PSP could prove that using PSP or PS3 numbers to extrapolate to Vita may be the wrong approach too, but for that alternative only time will tell.

7) That has very little to do with what I said. Let's say it did for a moment, I'll follow your logic. So I'll assume you are to mean "mature" western gamers (the quotes are intentional). What about the DS audience? What about a cross-over between DS and Vita consumers, is it possible? I sure think so. With proper marketing and all, consumers would bite for Vita. They do need to lower the price very soon though. A failed lauch could prove disastrous. But either way, I do believe that year two sales will begin to ramp up due to positive word of mouth. The PSP causes you to follow this line of thinking, and rightly so, but what if the Vita breaks the trends the PSP created? I believe it can happen, but I have no proof to offer for this, only gut instinct. I see Vita's appeal, and in time, hopefully with the right price, consumers will bite.

1) and 2) We are getting more and more in the territory of personal opinion and gut feeling here, so let's just wait a couple of months and see how it plays out. That's a better option than just repeating our point of view over and over again. Granted, the PSV does have more games than the PSP that are worth considering a purchase, but except for Uncharted, none of them seem big enough to make people want the system immediately.

3) Same as above. By the way, launch window usually refers to the timeframe from launch to three months later.

4) That's a lot of work you did there, but I think it's kinda missing the point. Out of the 19 games that performed significantly better in the West, 19 have always performed significantly better in the West. No outliers here. But there are a few games that have historically performed better in the West and then on the PSP performed better in Japan.

But more specifically, the original point here was that Japanese gamers are more accepting of handheld gaming while Western gamers often see it as second rate gaming. Instead of just comparing the sales of PSP games between the different territories, you should compare the sales of PSP games to the sales of their respective home console counterparts in each territory. Japanese PSP releases in general should be fairly close to home console releases of the same series while in America and Europe you should see significant dropoffs.

5) Okay.

6) Okay.

7) If you make the suggested sales comparisons of point 4), you'll see that it holds true that Western gamers prefer to play blockbuster games on a big screen. The only way Sony could get the DS audience is if Nintendo messed up big time. Mistakes on price and software lineup on Nintendo's part would make the DS audience up for grabs. Nintendo made these mistakes, but Sony was incapable of capitalizing on it for several reasons. Nintendo's head start, Nintendo correcting the mistakes sufficiently by now (although not completely) and Sony setting themselves up to repeat Nintendo's mistakes on price and software lineup. 

Right now the 3DS has a clear advantage when it comes to price and software lineup and it looks like that advantage will only be growing in the foreseeable future. By the time Sony gets there, Nintendo will have a lock on the DS audience. The recently announced 2D Mario game is scheduled for a 2012 release, that's about how long Sony has to close the gap. They aren't going to pull this off, it's simply not enough time.

But since you brought up a crossover between two audiences, why not look at the reverse case? What if Nintendo managed to get both the DS and PSP audience to buy the 3DS? This would put Sony at an even greater disadvantage and Nintendo indeed already has Monster Hunter exclusivity and Resident Evil: Revelations, games that should be very appealing to the PSP audience. It's unlikely that Nintendo can sell to everyone, but by the looks of it, they are on track to at least absorb some of Sony's userbase.



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Silly thread. Nintendo will continue to have games turned out by 3rd parties on this thing at a rate of 4-1 vs Vita. Most of those will be crap, but the massive list of games that parents can buy for their kids for $20 at Christmas will help seal Vita's fate. $170 + $40(real Nintendo game) or +$20(Games like "My baby can dance" or "Circlejurk, Diamond Questing") will beat out $250 +$30 Memory card + $40 game. Sorry, cash matters.



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Moonhero said:
Silly thread. Nintendo will continue to have games turned out by 3rd parties on this thing at a rate of 4-1 vs Vita. Most of those will be crap, but the massive list of games that parents can buy for their kids for $20 at Christmas will help seal Vita's fate. $170 + $40(real Nintendo game) or +$20(Games like "My baby can dance" or "Circlejurk, Diamond Questing") will beat out $250 +$30 Memory card + $40 game. Sorry, cash matters.

O_o



"NiKKoM 1 day ago

Still think Nintendo pulled a fast one on Sony by dropping the price so soon... People expect it will happen to the Vita too thus making people hesitant of buying it.."

^^^^ This such a qick price drop after launch has a great many consumers even more worried about getting shafted by being an early adopter.



Why shouldn't I count rayman origins as a port or multiplatform game? thats stupid . your in denial if you think that

cause thats like me saying zelda ocarina of time is exclusive to the 3DS when in reality it is not


but then again it is not available on a handheld . besides 3DS but rayman origins is -lol as of march it will be on 3ds and pc/laptops!
so ya . not exactly exclusive

and as stated in my original post

 

The original DS library is compatible with 3ds so that gives everyone alot of games from the get go the vita how ever unless you bought a psp go or have downloaded your games.   youll have to rebuy your whole collection if its available -no parent is going to want to do that  and I know very little people who are grown who want to do that either. 

 

the cheap games are already available on the 3ds ive seen harvest moon for 20 bucks -and thats no  shovel ware lol plus that big back log for those who had not got every ds game .  and then virtual console is available w gb gbc nes games so far and original 3ds ware/dsi ware there is no competition for that sorry . so again you probably better off predicting good sales not over taking the 3 DS cause thats just a stretch 



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RolStoppable said:

1) and 2) We are getting more and more in the territory of personal opinion and gut feeling here, so let's just wait a couple of months and see how it plays out. That's a better option than just repeating our point of view over and over again. Granted, the PSV does have more games than the PSP that are worth considering a purchase, but except for Uncharted, none of them seem big enough to make people want the system immediately.

3) Same as above. By the way, launch window usually refers to the timeframe from launch to three months later.

4) That's a lot of work you did there, but I think it's kinda missing the point. Out of the 19 games that performed significantly better in the West, 19 have always performed significantly better in the West. No outliers here. But there are a few games that have historically performed better in the West and then on the PSP performed better in Japan.

But more specifically, the original point here was that Japanese gamers are more accepting of handheld gaming while Western gamers often see it as second rate gaming. Instead of just comparing the sales of PSP games between the different territories, you should compare the sales of PSP games to the sales of their respective home console counterparts in each territory. Japanese PSP releases in general should be fairly close to home console releases of the same series while in America and Europe you should see significant dropoffs.

5) Okay.

6) Okay.

7) If you make the suggested sales comparisons of point 4), you'll see that it holds true that Western gamers prefer to play blockbuster games on a big screen. The only way Sony could get the DS audience is if Nintendo messed up big time. Mistakes on price and software lineup on Nintendo's part would make the DS audience up for grabs. Nintendo made these mistakes, but Sony was incapable of capitalizing on it for several reasons. Nintendo's head start, Nintendo correcting the mistakes sufficiently by now (although not completely) and Sony setting themselves up to repeat Nintendo's mistakes on price and software lineup. 

Right now the 3DS has a clear advantage when it comes to price and software lineup and it looks like that advantage will only be growing in the foreseeable future. By the time Sony gets there, Nintendo will have a lock on the DS audience. The recently announced 2D Mario game is scheduled for a 2012 release, that's about how long Sony has to close the gap. They aren't going to pull this off, it's simply not enough time.

But since you brought up a crossover between two audiences, why not look at the reverse case? What if Nintendo managed to get both the DS and PSP audience to buy the 3DS? This would put Sony at an even greater disadvantage and Nintendo indeed already has Monster Hunter exclusivity and Resident Evil: Revelations, games that should be very appealing to the PSP audience. It's unlikely that Nintendo can sell to everyone, but by the looks of it, they are on track to at least absorb some of Sony's userbase.

Okay for 1), 2) and 3), let's follow the trends as usual and see if either is right (if you're cool with that).

Thanks for your suggestion in 4). I may just do that and post it here later today, as a final view on the point. I think ultimately you are right, but I just think it was a little overly weighing to your end. With data we'll rectify perspective, you will be right, but at least have a more balanced view. I'll try to help and post that later. When I do, I'll edit this post and PM you.

7) You bring up excellent points. For this, as for 1), 2), and 3), numbers cannot guarantee. I still think it can go both ways personally, but that's given the games we see on 3DS as you mentioned (Nintendo capturing Sony core), and my view on the appeal of games like LBP and the indie touch games, as well as UC (Sony captivating some of the mass). Ultimately my guess is it should even out, with Nintendo losing a bit of market compared to last gen, and Sony having a small jump compared to last gen.

Last-point) The pirate userbase of the PSP did not foster game sales at a significant volume, other than sales attributed to the core base. I believe the Vita will have a totally different userbase (as well as the original PSP core), one which fosters sales. My prediction is that the Vita will at least have a much better attach ratio. I'm guessing something like 6 to 7, in contrast with PSP's 3.75. This should translate into healthy revenue for Sony, as SW sales are generally where the bulk of the profits lie. More revenue means better morale, better games forstered by cash and morale, better word of mouth and better advertising. I think Sony will profit to our surprise. Time will tell.



the 3ds beat the first ds in its 1st year ...i just dont belive what nintendo is saying ...



goldeneye0074eva2222 said:

Why shouldn't I count rayman origins as a port or multiplatform game? thats stupid . your in denial if you think that

cause thats like me saying zelda ocarina of time is exclusive to the 3DS when in reality it is not


but then again it is not available on a handheld . besides 3DS but rayman origins is -lol as of march it will be on 3ds and pc/laptops!
so ya . not exactly exclusive

and as stated in my original post

 

The original DS library is compatible with 3ds so that gives everyone alot of games from the get go the vita how ever unless you bought a psp go or have downloaded your games.   youll have to rebuy your whole collection if its available -no parent is going to want to do that  and I know very little people who are grown who want to do that either. 

 

the cheap games are already available on the 3ds ive seen harvest moon for 20 bucks -and thats no  shovel ware lol plus that big back log for those who had not got every ds game .  and then virtual console is available w gb gbc nes games so far and original 3ds ware/dsi ware there is no competition for that sorry . so again you probably better off predicting good sales not over taking the 3 DS cause thats just a stretch 

Who in the world said Rayman was exclusive?



"Nintendo has always seemed to generally target a younger audience with their exclusive games, whereas the Vita seems to hit them all"

Okay let me tell you right now, thats a load horse doodoo. If the PSV (or Sony for that matter) have been able to hit every major demographic, then why are still not as successful as Nintendo? Its sad for me to hear from others that Nintendo is for kids because they tend to market a lot of their games to not just kids but for all ages.

Nintendo has been targeting games for kids (as well as older gamers) since they emerged from the rubble from the crash of 1983. They got it right through all these years; despite GC days. I keep telling my brother who favors sony, if they don't target a wider audience (i.e. kids) They're going to be stuck with the older demographic; thats already shrinking, they're going to lose customers. They need a whole new generation of kids to replenish the market so that when they grow up, they can have a chance to try their other products. This is why IMO PSV is going to lose to the 3DS like the way the PSP lost to the DS.

Look at japan, the hardcore audience is shrinking; thats why they started to market games for casuals so that in time they would start buying more of their mainstream titles. The PSV is one badass machine, but if they keep repeating the same mistakes, the PSV is going to suffer just like the PSP did.



pezus said:
NintendoPie said:
sales2099 said:
NintendoPie said:
sales2099 said:
Pezus I expected better from you.

Superior today most certainly means loser. DS > PSP. Wii/360 > PS3. 3DS > Vita. Talking about marketshare offcourse.

Headstart, price, and Mario are what 3ds has over Vita. And nothing vita has can trump those golden 3 points.

This article does not reflect Pezus's feelings on the next generation handhelds.


Oh i didnt catch that. I read it and thought he endorsed the message. apologies. 

It is okay, Pezus does not endorse this ridiculous opinion.

-Pezus's PR

Thanks!

Thats what your PR is for. :D



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