1) The new combo is more interesting I believe (opinion, not based on sales data, but based on my gut feeling). With the right momentum, these could foster a healthy ecosystem on the Vita.
2) Lots of opinion in here. It's not just the number of games that is greater, the games are more compelling in general.
Not bad at all imho.
3) No release date for LBP yet, but it looks like it will be mid to end 2012. Anyway it's 2012 for sure. I knew that, hence why I used the term launch window in my Mario Land, MK argument in the last post I made. UC may do better than you expect, being flagship to a portable, better priced and generally more affordable. If not the first entry, the 2nd entry may exceed your expectations given a better gamer install base for the Vita, as compared to a pirate install base on the PSP, as it were.
4) So, I did my homework buddy, and here is the breakdown of the top 50 PSP games.
Of the top 50, 19 are West-only, 1 is Japan-only (MH Freedom 3), 8 sold better in Japan (MH Freedom 2, Dissidia: FF, Hot Shots Golf, MGS: PW, KH: BbS, MH Freedom, World Soccer Winning Eleven 9, MGS: Portable Ops), 3 sold nearly as much in the west as in Japan (FF:CC, GT, RR, FF: Tactics). The 19 others sold massively more in the west. Here is the full list:
So yeah, I disagree. :P
5) Ahh, gotcha. So MS helps PS when PS is in the weaker position. Since the PS2 had PS as king it didn't apply to that scenario. I get you now. So in the case of 3DS vs Vita, without MS things are less optimistic for PS. That's assuming that the Vita will perform like the PS3. Adding this to your answer to my qtn earlier (which was "how did PSP achieve 20Mil in America?"), then you may ultimately be right. OK.
6) And that's DOA since we know that won't happen (they don't have that SW brand power)... Wow, you're steps ahead of me. Good job.
However, the appeal to play said games on a fancy piece of HW, in the intimacy of your room if desired, or on the go... If the broader audience bites, it may fly. But Sony doesn't have the software to attract said audience other than LBP sometime 2012. I'm about to give up playing Devil's Advocate. Then again, a different momentum for Vita versus PSP could prove that using PSP or PS3 numbers to extrapolate to Vita may be the wrong approach too, but for that alternative only time will tell.
7) That has very little to do with what I said. Let's say it did for a moment, I'll follow your logic. So I'll assume you are to mean "mature" western gamers (the quotes are intentional). What about the DS audience? What about a cross-over between DS and Vita consumers, is it possible? I sure think so. With proper marketing and all, consumers would bite for Vita. They do need to lower the price very soon though. A failed lauch could prove disastrous. But either way, I do believe that year two sales will begin to ramp up due to positive word of mouth. The PSP causes you to follow this line of thinking, and rightly so, but what if the Vita breaks the trends the PSP created? I believe it can happen, but I have no proof to offer for this, only gut instinct. I see Vita's appeal, and in time, hopefully with the right price, consumers will bite.
1) and 2) We are getting more and more in the territory of personal opinion and gut feeling here, so let's just wait a couple of months and see how it plays out. That's a better option than just repeating our point of view over and over again. Granted, the PSV does have more games than the PSP that are worth considering a purchase, but except for Uncharted, none of them seem big enough to make people want the system immediately.
3) Same as above. By the way, launch window usually refers to the timeframe from launch to three months later.
4) That's a lot of work you did there, but I think it's kinda missing the point. Out of the 19 games that performed significantly better in the West, 19 have always performed significantly better in the West. No outliers here. But there are a few games that have historically performed better in the West and then on the PSP performed better in Japan.
But more specifically, the original point here was that Japanese gamers are more accepting of handheld gaming while Western gamers often see it as second rate gaming. Instead of just comparing the sales of PSP games between the different territories, you should compare the sales of PSP games to the sales of their respective home console counterparts in each territory. Japanese PSP releases in general should be fairly close to home console releases of the same series while in America and Europe you should see significant dropoffs.
7) If you make the suggested sales comparisons of point 4), you'll see that it holds true that Western gamers prefer to play blockbuster games on a big screen. The only way Sony could get the DS audience is if Nintendo messed up big time. Mistakes on price and software lineup on Nintendo's part would make the DS audience up for grabs. Nintendo made these mistakes, but Sony was incapable of capitalizing on it for several reasons. Nintendo's head start, Nintendo correcting the mistakes sufficiently by now (although not completely) and Sony setting themselves up to repeat Nintendo's mistakes on price and software lineup.
Right now the 3DS has a clear advantage when it comes to price and software lineup and it looks like that advantage will only be growing in the foreseeable future. By the time Sony gets there, Nintendo will have a lock on the DS audience. The recently announced 2D Mario game is scheduled for a 2012 release, that's about how long Sony has to close the gap. They aren't going to pull this off, it's simply not enough time.
But since you brought up a crossover between two audiences, why not look at the reverse case? What if Nintendo managed to get both the DS and PSP audience to buy the 3DS? This would put Sony at an even greater disadvantage and Nintendo indeed already has Monster Hunter exclusivity and Resident Evil: Revelations, games that should be very appealing to the PSP audience. It's unlikely that Nintendo can sell to everyone, but by the looks of it, they are on track to at least absorb some of Sony's userbase.