There is not doubt that its going to be tough for the PSVita to compete in the handheld gaming market from its launch date. Right now its not looking good for Sony's handheld gaming system. How the market has been lately, this could bounce in Sony's favor later, you never know.
Ugh you again. This was already posted days ago.
No need to promote your stupid blog. No one visits it. What do you get from that blog? Like 10 cents? Get a real job dude and stop spamming.
| rocketpig said: I'm pretty sure I mentioned that I thought the 3DS would do okay for itself in the long run. "Shattering handheld records" isn't exactly impressive and is akin to being awarded a silver medal at the Special Olympics. What's it going against? The DS had entirely mediocre sales until the Lite released and it missed the first holiday season in Europe and Australia due to its staggered launch. The market was much smaller in the Game Boy era, which last launched over a decade ago. The PSP spent most of its first year wandering around like a crazy homeless person. And these "records" came after Nintendo had to lop a whopping $80 off the damned thing just three months after launch. Like I said, I think the 3DS will be okay but Nintendo can't be thrilled about how things have shaken out for the device thus far. I doubt they forcast slicing $80 off every device just to get the things moving off store shelves when they plotted out the lifecycle of the unit. You can go ahead and bash my "market analysis" but I'm looking forward, not backward. The 3DS has been propped up by a massively premature price cut and when a handheld typically gets swept by the casual market (12-36 months after launch, if at all), I don't see the 3DS catching a sales wave anywhere near the level of the DS, especially since Nintendo has already used their "price cut boost" card and won't be able to prop up the device with a nice price cut after the typical 12-18 months. You may think it's too early to call the fate of the Vita but from my perspective, that thing looked stillborn the moment it was announced as the NGP. It's too expensive, the games are going to be too expensive to develop compared to potential ROI, and there are other devices out there that do more and play games well enough (iOS, Android) or devices that offer a truly different experience for dedicated gamers (3DS). I don't see people giving a shit about the device and unless Sony starts forking out cash to developers (which they are hardly in a position to do at this point), I don't see third parties doing much with the device outside of porting whatever 360/PS3 game they think they can get running on the thing. |
Oh come now, you've been on this site for years. You know well enough that a price cut only offers major boosts for a month or MAYBE two unless there's serious long-term consumer interest. The 3DS's sales spike is certainly partially related to the price falling into "mass market" range, but it's also obviously experiencing wide appeal and adoption. Also considering handhelds are generally far more profitable and successful than consoles, I would say shattering handheld records is a bigger feat than console ones. Better to be the next DS than the next Wii. The $70 price cut was hardly positive, but the sales after it have beaten even Nintendo's predictions, and in Japan it's soaring to greater heights than the DS ever did.
it is already game over in japan for vita 3ds has monster hunter mario kart and super mario 3d land in all honesty if nintendo plays their cards right 3ds can outsell the ds. Vita on the other hand probly wont outsell the psp
With these issues(PSVita won't turn on, Freezes during gameplay, Location data inaccurate, Can't log into PSN) already plaguing the PSVita, and some bad sales it is going to be tough for Sony to climb out of this mess.
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naznatips said: Oh come now, you've been on this site for years. You know well enough that a price cut only offers major boosts for a month or MAYBE two unless there's serious long-term consumer interest. The 3DS's sales spike is certainly partially related to the price falling into "mass market" range, but it's also obviously experiencing wide appeal and adoption. Also considering handhelds are generally far more profitable and successful than consoles, I would say shattering handheld records is a bigger feat than console ones. Better to be the next DS than the next Wii. The $70 price cut was hardly positive, but the sales after it have beaten even Nintendo's predictions, and in Japan it's soaring to greater heights than the DS ever did. |
I disagree on the handheld console records point. There hasn't really been a truly successful handheld launch in over ten years and I don't really remember much about the GBA launch. The DS built up momentum over time and only after the Lite released did it take off.
Anyway, I think the 3DS will be fine for Nintendo but what happens if it does 80 million units in its lifetime? That's a huge profit for Nintendo but it's also about a 50% drop in the handheld market (more if you, like me, think the Vita is going to flop and add the PSP to the DS's hardware totals). Market contraction doesn't mean that everyone is going to lose money but it does mean that profits are going to be harder to come by going forward. And I think it also means Sony is going to be forced to make a very ugly exit from the handheld market entirely. Seven years ago when the last generation launched, there was little market crossover from other devices. Now, there is market bleed from multiple sectors and I think it's going to hurt handhelds in this generation.
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| rocketpig said: I disagree on the handheld console records point. There hasn't really been a truly successful handheld launch in over ten years and I don't really remember much about the GBA launch. The DS built up momentum over time and only after the Lite released did it take off. Anyway, I think the 3DS will be fine for Nintendo but what happens if it does 80 million units in its lifetime? That's a huge profit for Nintendo but it's also about a 50% drop in the handheld market (more if you, like me, think the Vita is going to flop and add the PSP to the DS's hardware totals). Market contraction doesn't mean that everyone is going to lose money but it does mean that profits are going to be harder to come by going forward. And I think it also means Sony is going to be forced to make a very ugly exit from the handheld market entirely. Seven years ago when the last generation launched, there was little market crossover from other devices. Now, there is market bleed from multiple sectors and I think it's going to hurt handhelds in this generation. |
Again, though, this is pure conjecture. We know a lot of people play games in iPhones, iPads, and Kindle Fires, but we don't know how much that actually overlaps with those who actually want real portable games and not shitty virtual D-Pads or Fruit Ninja. Or Fruit Ninja: Armored Edition (Infinity Blade). Keep in mind that mobile spending, while it has gone up, is still nowhere near handheld spending. In 2 months on the market Super Mario 3D Land made more revenue than any game ever released on iOS made in its entire history. And most spending on iOS isn't even on games, even though the "total spending" gets lumped against the DS and other dedicated handhelds.
As an owner of both a decent Android phone and a great Android tablet full of "hardcore mobile games for reasonable prices" (shadowgun, GTAIII HD, everything on OnLive which I have free access to, etc.) I'd still rather play Ocarina 3D than my entire library of 100+ mobile games, and I have certainly played Ocarina 3D MORE than my entire library of 100+ mobile games. You assume that every potential handheld buyer is like your family, but what if most are like me? What if your nieces just don't want 3DSes because they are too old to be comfortable with them (something which happens to most kids during a certain age group before they grow up and stop giving a shit about how "popular" their hobbies are)?
I'm not saying you're absolutely, eniquivocably, wrong. I'm saying you have absolutely, unequivocably, zero evidence to support your claims. You're clubbing baby seals left and right over here. "He said." "She said." "I believe." These are not the basis of good predictions, they're the basis of opinion. It's possible the mobile gaming market will shrink some, but as of right now the best evidence you have for it is conjecture on the level of "Well this market exists, so obviously it has to subtract from the original one!"
| naznatips said: I'm not saying you're absolutely, eniquivocably, wrong. I'm saying you have absolutely, unequivocably, zero evidence to support your claims. You're clubbing baby seals left and right over here. "He said." "She said." "I believe." These are not the basis of good predictions, they're the basis of opinion. It's possible the mobile gaming market will shrink some, but as of right now the best evidence you have for it is conjecture on the level of "Well this market exists, so obviously it has to subtract from the original one!" |
The bolded is where we differ. The 3DS is doing well enough for itself but given the history of handheld launches, it's nothing spectacular and a price drop was needed to get there. Whereas I see other convergence markets bursting at the seams (the iPad 2 was supply constrained for what, three months after launch?). I don't see a future where all these devices continue to grow (or in some cases, even stay stagnant). Is that opinion? Absolutely. Is that a bad prediction? No, I don't think so. It's quite grounded, actually. We haven't even seen the market for under $200 tablets yet but you know they're on the way. Look at the Fire. If Apple manages to come into the $300 market with an iPad (likely), mayhem will ensue and I don't see how it won't bleed into handhelds. Statistics are already starting to show that they're causing disruption in the laptop sector and quality tablets have yet to dip under $400.
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its a bit early to write this handheld gen off already,the ds/psp was the biggest ever wasn't it,of course it will be hard to match those heights and the vita can be a total disaster for sony,unlike the 3ds for nintendo which will be fine
i don't really go along with the pad/phone finishing off gaming specific machines of coure there is crossover and casuals that played braintraining might not buy a 3ds but it doesn't mean the end or something else won't ignite the casuals
who knows how the vita will fair with the psn/online part of gaming it might find a hit,nintendo will do alright by the 3ds but i'm wondering what kind of sales the vita will have and what sony are actually expecting from it
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