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Forums - Sales Discussion - The OFFICIAL March 2007 NPD thread

Erik Aston on 19 April 2007

The data is actually pretty bad. It'd be one thing, for example, if they overestimated everything... Or were just generally in proportion to NPD numbers... Then they'd know how to correct. It seems they are off in both directions, though. More often than not, they overestimated... But when you've got the odd game in there that's waaay underestimated (GH2... 97K vs 291K), it makes it difficult to know how to correct their calculations... I mean, Lingyis just mentioned the physical size of the game with GHII... That's something there is no way they can try to take into account... It amounts to total guesswork, though it looks like that is what they are doing now anyways.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

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CrazzyMan on 19 April 2007

400$ vs 600$ = 1.5 130k vs 200k = 1.5 :)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Avinash_Tyagi on 19 April 2007
Erik Aston said:
The data is actually pretty bad. It'd be one thing, for example, if they overestimated everything... Or were just generally in proportion to NPD numbers... Then they'd know how to correct. It seems they are off in both directions, though. More often than not, they overestimated... But when you've got the odd game in there that's waaay underestimated (GH2... 97K vs 291K), it makes it difficult to know how to correct their calculations... I mean, Lingyis just mentioned the physical size of the game with GHII... That's something there is no way they can try to take into account... It amounts to total guesswork, though it looks like that is what they are doing now anyways.

 Well that's why they are asking for anyone who can help them expand their retailer network to step up



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Yojimbo on 19 April 2007

So those are the NPD numbers? So I can go to sleep happy?



 
FishyJoe on 19 April 2007
CrazzyMan said:
400$ vs 600$ = 1.5 130k vs 200k = 1.5 :)

 You really need to learn the difference between revenue and profit. Both those numbers stink anyways.



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Lingyis on 19 April 2007
Erik Aston said:
The data is actually pretty bad. It'd be one thing, for example, if they overestimated everything... Or were just generally in proportion to NPD numbers... Then they'd know how to correct. It seems they are off in both directions, though. More often than not, they overestimated... But when you've got the odd game in there that's waaay underestimated (GH2... 97K vs 291K), it makes it difficult to know how to correct their calculations... I mean, Lingyis just mentioned the physical size of the game with GHII... That's something there is no way they can try to take into account... It amounts to total guesswork, though it looks like that is what they are doing now anyways.

thankfully, there aren't many games in the genre of guitar hero. Guitar Hero and DDR are the only 2 that takes up space right?

i bought my DDR game on ebay because i couldn't find the pads in store.  for online retailers inventory is probably more easily managed than store retailers...  

perhaps it's a sign that the retailers that are chosen aren't representative enough. 

in any case, there's only one data point so far, there'll be more data to work with.

 



the Wii is an epidemic.

Yojimbo on 19 April 2007
FishyJoe said:
CrazzyMan said:
400$ vs 600$ = 1.5 130k vs 200k = 1.5 :)

You really need to learn the difference between revenue and profit. Both those numbers stink anyways.

Did he say anything about profit? I think that was funny coincidence :D

 



 
FishyJoe on 19 April 2007
Yojimbo said:
FishyJoe said:
CrazzyMan said:
400$ vs 600$ = 1.5 130k vs 200k = 1.5 :)

You really need to learn the difference between revenue and profit. Both those numbers stink anyways.

Did he say anything about profit? I think that was funny coincidence :D

 


 To be quite honest I don't know. The message is cryptic at best.



Lingyis on 19 April 2007
FishyJoe said:
Yojimbo said:
FishyJoe said:
CrazzyMan said:
400$ vs 600$ = 1.5 130k vs 200k = 1.5 :)

You really need to learn the difference between revenue and profit. Both those numbers stink anyways.

Did he say anything about profit? I think that was funny coincidence :D

 


To be quite honest I don't know. The message is cryptic at best.


 maybe he was saying that PS3 and 360 are perfect substitutes, and that the demand curve is perfectly elastic



the Wii is an epidemic.

FishyJoe on 19 April 2007

I think the elastic is about to break LOL!