HappySqurriel said: Bruceongames said: Fastrabbit09 said: Bruceongames said: HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology. here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv  b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think   And you are looking at it from YOUR perspective. Even worse you are looking at how things are today. I am looking 2 to 3 years ahead. Take a moment and consider one potential outcome 2 or 3 years from now ... Suppose that the Wii continues to sell as well (or better due to supply) in 2008 as it did in 2007 while the PS3 and XBox 360 continue at their same rate (mainly because they're so expensive). For most of 2008 third party publishers will continue to increase development of Wii games, and are likely to begin development of larger and more impressive Wii games for 2009. In 2009 due to the high volume, quantity and quality of Wii games (as well as the lower price of the system) do you really expect consumers to jump onto the XBox 360/PS3 bandwagon? The longer the Wii dominates the more third parties will be focusing on the Wii and the more difficult it will be to steal the Wii's momentium; over the next 12 to 24 months most PS2 and PSP development teams will begin projects on a current generation platform due to shrinking software sales on those platforms, if/when the Wii gets the lion's share of these development resources it will be practically impossible for the XBox 360 or PS3 to stage a comeback.

But those Wii games will not (in general) be as good as the PS3/360 games. Fact. And the release shedules I have seen for this year have 360 as the most popular platform. The HD consoles have much more power for AI and physics. Plus vastly superior graphics. Also I think you will find that Microsoft will be very agressive on price in 2008. So cheap that a lot of you guys will buy one just for GTA. Plus the Wii will just look and perform like old technology. The thing about fashion is that people move on.

his perspective, your Perspective, doesn't matter

what matters, SALES .

we have 14 months of Solid Hard Data at our fingertips that show that the majority of people buying Consoles Do Not Care whether or not their game Console Outputs at 480p, 720p or 1080p.

we have survey data that states that the Majority of people that have HDTV's are not using it for HD content (TV content specifically-applies to consoles as well)

what you think, what I think are just microcosmic in nature, what matters is what the Mass Consumer thinks.

right now that Mass Consumer is Buying the Wii in amounts Never seen in the history of console gaming.

an HD Version of the wii will NOT be out in 2008 will NOT be out in 2009, will NOT be out in 2010...

the NEXT console that Nintendo Releases in ~2011ish or so Will have HD and Will have a hard drive (or a flash drive equivulent) at an affordable price...

Thats the thing Bruce.

Good analysts use data to make their predictions. You've got to site some consumer report studys, NPD, Nielson, TNS, there are all sorts of reports out there on these things.

Come on man, that's the first thing they teach you in consumer marketing. You base your trends on hard numbers and comparisons from the most similar industries, you don't start pulling from random industries that have nothing to do with it.

Well actually the first thing they tell you is to never lie and always report what the numbers you got suggest, because otherwise nobody is going to look at youre credibly, but i mean that implies you use numbers.

If you want people to give you a second look instead of just glancing over it, your going to have to do some hard work, read some journal articles and some released reports and put them in articles like this. 

a Quality Wii game will be As good as a Quality ps3 or 360 game. that is a Fact.

a shitty wii game will be just as crappy as a crappy ps3 or 360 game. that is a fact as well.


graphics as a Whole do not matter on the quality of product. if it is a good game, people Will buy it, even if the game graphics are Stick Figures. (lets see if bruce gets what game i a referring to on that one)

Bruce what do you make of Japan where PS3 is available for $367, Wii is available for $230, HD adoption rates are far higher than in the West, and DS and Wii still dominate the hardware and software charts?  Nine of the top ten titles in Japan were on DS or Wii in 2007?  I would argue part of it is the absence of strong competition from the Xbox 360, but at the same time, how dominant does HD have to be for the switch over to strong PS3 sales to occur if HD-rates are already 40-50% in Japan?

Also, I think you overestimate the Market. Your average consumer... even your average PS3 consumer has no idea what videogame physics are. As for AI, once again your average consumer likely isn't going to be able to spot any difference between the AI in Resistance and the AI in COD 2.

The only people who notice these things are people who are experts in the industry, or REALLY hardcore gamers.

 My friend invited me over to watch his "awesome" new HD TV... and it wasn't even hooked up to HD tv until my other friend helped him out.  It actually looked worse then his old tv did.

Bruceongames said: HappySqurriel said: Bruceongames said: Fastrabbit09 said: Bruceongames said: HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology. here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv  b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think   And you are looking at it from YOUR perspective. Even worse you are looking at how things are today. I am looking 2 to 3 years ahead. Take a moment and consider one potential outcome 2 or 3 years from now ... Suppose that the Wii continues to sell as well (or better due to supply) in 2008 as it did in 2007 while the PS3 and XBox 360 continue at their same rate (mainly because they're so expensive). For most of 2008 third party publishers will continue to increase development of Wii games, and are likely to begin development of larger and more impressive Wii games for 2009. In 2009 due to the high volume, quantity and quality of Wii games (as well as the lower price of the system) do you really expect consumers to jump onto the XBox 360/PS3 bandwagon? The longer the Wii dominates the more third parties will be focusing on the Wii and the more difficult it will be to steal the Wii's momentium; over the next 12 to 24 months most PS2 and PSP development teams will begin projects on a current generation platform due to shrinking software sales on those platforms, if/when the Wii gets the lion's share of these development resources it will be practically impossible for the XBox 360 or PS3 to stage a comeback.   But those Wii games will not (in general) be as good as the PS3/360 games. Fact. And the release shedules I have seen for this year have 360 as the most popular platform. The HD consoles have much more power for AI and physics. Plus vastly superior graphics. Also I think you will find that Microsoft will be very agressive on price in 2008. So cheap that a lot of you guys will buy one just for GTA. Plus the Wii will just look and perform like old technology. The thing about fashion is that people move on.

 So you are saying Guitar Hero 3, for example, is worse on the Wii than the other two platforms? Or are you saying Super Mario Galaxy would have become the highest rated game of all time if it had been on the 360/PS3? I am just trying to understand your ludicrous assertion that games are just somehow better on one system over another.

Kasz216 said: Thats the thing Bruce. Good analysts use data to make their predictions. You've got to site some consumer report studys, NPD, Nielson, TNS, there are all sorts of reports out there on these things. Come on man, that's the first thing they teach you in consumer marketing. You base your trends on hard numbers and comparisons from the most similar industries, you don't start pulling from random industries that have nothing to do with it. Well actually the first thing they tell you is to never lie and always report what the numbers you got suggest, because otherwise nobody is going to look at youre credibly, but i mean that implies you use numbers. If you want people to give you a second look instead of just glancing over it, your going to have to do some hard work, read some journal articles and some released reports and put them in articles like this.

Actually, I think his problem, and analysts like Michael Pachter, is that they are so tied to historical data that they don't want to accept that Nintendo is redefining the industry as a whole.  The past no longer equals the future.

Like Apple totally reshaped the music industry with Ipod, so shall Nintendo with Wii/DS. It's like taking past results and saying X label will have the greatest year ever because of it's CD line-up except in reality less people are buying cds so in fact X label will not have it's greatest year because it's songs were not on itunes.  The VG industry is very different to that, but the change will be similar.  Those companies that continue to try to do business as usual will likewise see declining returns.

Gamerace said: Kasz216 said: Thats the thing Bruce. Good analysts use data to make their predictions. You've got to site some consumer report studys, NPD, Nielson, TNS, there are all sorts of reports out there on these things. Come on man, that's the first thing they teach you in consumer marketing. You base your trends on hard numbers and comparisons from the most similar industries, you don't start pulling from random industries that have nothing to do with it. Well actually the first thing they tell you is to never lie and always report what the numbers you got suggest, because otherwise nobody is going to look at youre credibly, but i mean that implies you use numbers. If you want people to give you a second look instead of just glancing over it, your going to have to do some hard work, read some journal articles and some released reports and put them in articles like this. Actually, I think his problem, and analysts like Michael Pachter, is that they are so tied to historical data that they don't want to accept that Nintendo is redefining the industry as a whole. The past no longer equals the future. Like Apple totally reshaped the music industry with Ipod, so shall Nintendo with Wii/DS. It's like taking past results and saying X label will have the greatest year ever because of it's CD line-up except in reality less people are buying cds so in fact X label will not have it's greatest year because it's songs were not on itunes. The VG industry is very different to that, but the change will be similar. Those companies that continue to try to do business as usual will likewise see declining returns.

Nah, Patchers problem is that he's reading the historical data wrong. Instead of comparing like consoles he's comparing similarly named conoles.

The PS3 is the Playstation cosnole, so it's like the Playstation 2 and Playstation 1. Nintendo's market share has continued to drop, so it will continue to drop. That's the lazy man's way of looking at historical data.

Really, historical sales data should be applied by sales trends as a 3rd indicator. Compare sales to similar sales and extrapolate from there. Then further modify this by your opinions which are backed up by studies like the Nielson and the NPD study, and any other constant consumer reports that are available about why people adopt HD tvs, HD content adoption and HD usage on home consoles.

Most important of all... use the Warren Buffet factor. Look for the company that has the most and strongest sustainable advantages. He's only looking at one sustainable advantage while ignoring many others. Right now Nintendo just owns way more sustainable advantages then the competition, and until you can find some hard data through consumer marketing means, i'd say it would be extremely irresponsible to proffesionally say the Wii will flop after 2009. You can't just point at consumer adoption of HD Tvs without looking at any surveys that say what these things will do.

Luckily he isn't likely getting paid, but since he seems to want people to view him as a proffesional it would be better if he did things proffesionally.

Instead of a daily article, perhaps a weekly article with research would be better. Sure research is harder then just opining about any opinion you have... but the results are much more worth it and of note.

 

Bruceongames said: Fastrabbit09 said: Bruceongames said: HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology. here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv  b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think   And you are looking at it from YOUR perspective. Even worse you are looking at how things are today. I am looking 2 to 3 years ahead.

 

no i'm not

 i'm looking at it from the perspective of the average consumer (wife/sis/parents/grandparents/etc) NOT from the perspective of an average gamer (which you are looking at it from)

 the FACTS back me up

and most wii owners are using an hdtv for their wii...they know wii isn't hd and don't care...games are about fun, not graphics, to you AVERAGE CONSUMER

i have been watching the hd 'revolution' for almost a decade now and i am looking at the future, not just today

 consumers have shown TIME AND TIME AGAIN that they do NOT care about increase in visual/sound quality, but rather about increase in functionality

 wii lets them access the games without having to learn 20 button combos, so that is good functionality for them

 name me ONE product that overtook another based SOLELY on graphic/sound quality

 not cassettes or cds or dvds

def not mp3s, which are inferior to cds

not sacds or dvd-audio or hddvd or bluray

even most hdtv owners buy the hdtv because they can hang it on their wall, or to future-proof themselves or to be able to have bragging rights...the numbers back that up as only 44% of hdtv owners even view hd content on them

 name one product where graphic/sound quality was the determining factor