Do you honestly believe that they'll just drop support of the 360 once the 'Xbox 1080' comes out and risk losing their ~16 million paying live subscribers??

You have to remember though, that Halo always has some decent legs for many months after its release.  Sure, the biggest numbers follow the pattern you mentioned, but let's say the next Xbox released in Nov 2012 as you said.  The launch and holiday numbers would look good for the new console due to the big fans early adopting.  But the price reduced 360 with Halo 4, GTA 5 and whatever COD releases holiday 2012 would continue to sell well through 2013, while the Xbox 1080 would likely slow down considerably, same way the PS3 did while PS2 continued so nicely.

If Microsoft waits until mid to late 2013 to launch Xbox 1080, said games will have slowed down a bit, giving the new console the complete spotlight for the 2013 holiday.  It's similar to the way Nintendo didn't release Wii U this year, instead letting Zelda take the spotlight now, and Wii U taking it next year.  And that's even with current Wii sales down and only one big game.  The 360 certainly won't have those dwindling sales holiday of 2012, therefore there's little need for the Xbox 1080 that early, IMO.

You just unintentionally pointed out the problem, though.  The 360 would likely be selling so good throughout 2012-mid 2013, that the expensive Xbox 1080's sales could stagnate after all of the early adopters buy it at launch in 2012.  Yes, 360 would be bringing in the dough, but without consistent sales, the 1080 would be losing money.  The key is for Microsoft not to launch too late (particularly concerning Sony), but not so early that it interferes with the money making 360.

That's why (to me) the smartest move is an "all in" 2013 launch for Xbox 1080, while the 360 becomes a steady, more modest seller in the background in late 2013 and beyond, like the PS2 has been for the last few years.

Lol, "Wiilight Princess"... I like it!

Anyway, yes what you say worked, but frankly, the GC being dead in the water is a colossal difference in the equation.  Let's say Zelda TP only launched for the GC.  It would have done practically nothing for sales of the console.  Nintendo was anxious to get a new system in the race for many reasons; having Zelda release on GC was almost Nintendo just keeping their promise.

Now, let's say Halo 4 only launches on 360.  With the strong lineup in 2012 (GTA 5, Bioshock Infinite, new COD) and the 360's inevitable price drop, it'll mean lots of profit for Microsoft without their new console costing them anything yet.  To answer your @bolded, they're both important when the 360 will be doing so well in 2012, so it really is a balancing act for Microsoft.

All those with Halo4 stuck in their minds.

1) It could easily switch consoles.
2) Expect neXtBox to be b/c with 360 and therefore MS won't care if Halo4 was on 360 as upgraders could still play it and maybe it would even be enhanced in some fashion for neXtBox.
3) The ability to best compete with WiiU and PS4 is far greater than Halo4 in the long run.

Well its no secret that MS spends the most ad money of the 3.

Also no matter what Halo 4 will sell at least 4 million on 360 opening week regardless (if advertised and hyped right which I have no doubt)

In the end, Halo 4 360 sales will actually offset the initial losses of selling a new console. In essense....the 360 version of Halo 4 will cushion the red ink of the new launch....while at the same time attracting new buyers for the new generation. 

Thats my core belief here......new console launches drip red ink. 360 Halo 4 will cushion the blow. 

@Play4fun....

"Also if you think PS4 and 70 will be 20 times more powerful than Wii U like your post suggest, you're dreaming."

.... you know there's really no need to be an arrogant schmuck allright, I was making an example and simply threw out an arbitrary multiple to exaggerate my point. Obviously neither console will be 20 times more powerful. The point that I was making was directly related to cost and how that is the main factor limiting what those new consoles will be capable of. If Sony and MS can both make cosoles that blow the doors off the Wii U...and do so in a cost effecient way, I'll repeat that..and do so in a cost effecient way... then believe me, that's what they'll do.

"Another thing, what most developers would want from this gen is for development costs to not skyrocket even more. If they were so ectastic to use money to develop on the most powerful hardware they have, then multiplats would be made for PCs and ported to consoles instead of Vice versa. It's cheaper and easier to develop on the least capable hardwares and up-port."

.....thanks for the info, but, developers, just like gamers, want things bigger and better. I didn't say anything about cost, or what's cheaper to develop on, I said developers always want more power and ability to create what they envision. If that weren't true, than we wouldn't have Idtech5, or Frostbite 2.0, PC graphic cards wouldn't keep evolving etc. etc.... increased tech capabilities are what drive the game industry forward, without them, we'd still be playing Atari. You gotta learn to read between the lines a little bit and stop being so literal.

"One last thing about gamers gravitating to the most powerful console, that has never really been the case in console history. The most powerful console has never sold the most of it's generation. Gamers whose console decision rely on power above every thing else are the minority in console gaming. There are alot more important things that come into play."

.......once again, you're misreading, or simply misunderstanding my point. I didn't say anything about the most powerful console being the market leader for it's respective generation. I said developers and gamers will gravitate towards the most powerful cosole, and they do so because that's the natural order and evolution of the industry. I didn't say it had to be everybody all at once. For arguments sake; ColecoVision and Intellivision stole quite a few gamers away from Atari, the original NES re-established the home console market. The Super Nintendo brought back allot of gamers that the company had lost to the Genesis. Playstation knocked the Saturn around, the Dreamcast blew people away until... check it out.... the more powerful Playstation 2 was released. The Xbox sold 24 million consoles and the PS3 will at some point take over 2nd place here in the seventh generation. What do all these consoles have in common with each other... yep, you guessed it, they were more powerful than the console before it and developers/gamers gravitated towards them.
Does that help you understand a little better. Sorry for the sarcasm, but you kinda got on my nerves.

 Exactly.  I 100% agree with this post.  You guys on this site need to remember we are a VERY small representation of hardcore gamers in comparisson to the vast amount there are in the world.  Just because some of us are ready for next gen does not mean the rest of gamers are. 

I think a $100 360 with massive titles like Halo 4, GTA 5, the next COD, and probably the next Asassins Creed would absolutley destroy the next-box in sales if it launched in 2012. You have to remember to most people the current graphics are more than enough and if they keep getting these huge titles, with lots of XBox Live support what would be the point for the average gamer to upgrade?  The perfect time for them to launch would be like 3rd quarter 2013.  Let the hype and sales of the huge holiday 2012 games slow down a bit and slowly trickle out the amount of big games coming out for the 360 and then launch.

Im selling my 360 and PS3 when a set date is announced.....I wanna get the most out of my investment!!

What are you talking about?  Creed and the next COD are already confirmed for 360.  You are proving my point.  Let these games launch for the 360 and then the next ones in the series come out on the Nextbox.  And help drive the sales of the next system.  As it stands if it launched in 2012 it would be competing with these games available for a MUCH cheaper system.  Why not just not launch in 2013 and not have to compete with them and in fact have them ready to launch with the new console. 

Like I said your proving my point.  I'm not saying its impossible that the Nextbox comes out in 2012 just that its a better business choice to launch in 2013.  I'm not convinced yet Wii U is going to do much of anything so I don't think that would really impact sales.