TheLivingShadow said: You guys apparently seem to think China would be fine with the US having military presence at its border literally. China would never let that happen which is why they wouldn't back off the Korean conflict so easily. This is the reason I believe America should stop having bases in South Korea. If the US agrees to let go of its bases, then I believe the conflict would sort itself out with South Korea winning the war. However, note that it's not good either for South Korea to win the war, since they are so much more advanced than north koreans. |
Umm heck no it wouldn't. If the US packed up its bases do you honestly think China would allow a democracy to topple a communist country on its border? Also the only reason China hasn't conquered half of Asia by now is the fact the US is present. Missiles have been fired over Japan from NK and apparently from China. Chinese naval vessels have violated the sovereignty of several Asian countries. China's Government has opennly threatened multiple countries. Taiwan is only around today because the US armed them to the teeth and if they were invaded they wouldn't go out without a huge fight.
The scenerio if the US pulled fully out of South Korea, assuming other Nato countries did so as well. China would likely broker a peace deal in which the North and South would join. But that deal would involve massive concessions to the North, in the case that South Korea actually did invade North Korea. China would continue arming North Korean forces. The North already has enough missiles and artillery batteries to level Seoul in a day or so without even entering the south. Even with the South's advanced military the country would take massive casualties and if they actually invaded and made it to Pyongyang. Do you think China would actually allow the South to advance further?
Firstly the Northern Government would send refugees by the millions north into China. The fighting would be right on the border and threaten Chinese regional stability and interests. If South Korea actually appeared to be winning and pushing towards China and their was no US presence in South Korea. China would intervene for sure.
The only way China would ever consider not intervening in Korea if the South stormed the North is if the South wasn't a massive threat. Even with their economic ties China would not allow a communist ally to fall right on its border. Example look at Arab spring Tunisia fell then Egypt then Libya. If a communist ally like North Korea fell the victory of the democratic south could easily translate into a rebellion or instability in China. Not to mention the massive flow of refugees and the fact the fighting would engulf China's border. The US is the only possible reason they wouldn't intervene militarily.
Many are right China would likely start by trying to merge the North and South. But if the South a democracy appeared to be slaughtering the North a Communist Ally, they would not allow the fighting to get anywhere near their border unless the US was involved. If the US was involved China would likely demand a massive DMZ on the border I don't think they would attack the US. Then again if the US was involved China would likely press for an immediate cease fire and call on North Korea to make a peace agreement with the south.
Either way I doubt China would allow a communist ally on their border fall to a democracy!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer