RolStoppable said:
mike_intellivision said: Some thoughts after reading the articles and the postings ... 1. What do we is Sean Malstrom's credentials? We know little about him, other than his writings. Was he really sage by predicting the Wii's success ... or did he just go against the grain and get lucky? We have -- myself included -- treated his work as if he were a prophet. But what do we really know about him. And if he were that good/well-respected, would he not be running a company or at least be an analyst rather than a WordPress blogger? In other words, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but why is his so special 2. Only on the Wii could games that sell 3M or 6M (Wii Music and SMG2) be thought of as failures. Now he makes a point that the 2D Marios sell better than the 3D ones. But if you released more, would it not decrease their special quality/uniqueness/value? 3. It is hard to be "arcade" games when they have all but ceased to exist (2D fighters and ski-ball not withstanding). 4. How many M-rated games has Nintendo released? It is less than a handful. 5. Nintendo has lost money -- but so have a lot of Japanese companies this year. The earthquake event and the world economy (including the yen's value) have meant red ink for a lot of firms. Sony, Panasonic, Honda, Toyota. Google up a prominent Japanese company and chances are they have lost money -- a lot of money -- this year. 6. I close with this because I know my remarks will be ignored. This is because everyone already has their mind made up. Malstrom thinks he knows all -- and knows what Nintendo should be doing. Those who defend him see things his way. Those who refute him are equally made up in their minds. Personally, there have been some missteps by Nintendo. And there will be some in the future. But there are also will be successes. I play games for fun -- and Nintendo is fun, just as games on Sony and Microsoft platforms can be fun. Remember, many people predict Nintendo's doom because of their own personal tastes/desires, not because of reality. And many people predict their success for the same reason. Mike from Morgantown |
1. Sean Malstrom started out in May 2006, right after the E3 of that year. He posted about a dozen articles between then and the Wii's launch, laying out why the Wii would succeed and the PS3 would fail. He didn't just say that it will happen, he also got all the reasons right. That's the difference between a random guess and an actual prediction. Of course he couldn't predict that Nintendo themselves will turn against their most successful home console later on in the lifecycle, but that's excusable because the thought of it is ridiculous. A company going to kill their most successful product, that's just madness.
Malstrom also predicted the Wii's collapse. In early 2009 the Wii was still sold out, but he was convinced that it's going to come to an end pretty soon, because Wii Music didn't fit in line with what made Nintendo so successful in the first place. Malstrom is so special, because his track record is exceptional. Unfortunately, all of his articles from 2006-2009 are unavailable right now and he hasn't gotten around to upload them again.
The main reason why so many people are against him is the story of the Wii. At first he was talking very positively about it, because Nintendo did everything right. This made Nintendo fans follow him and fans of other consoles hate him. Since Nintendo changed its course, he is mostly talking negatively about them. This made most Nintendo fans turn against him.
2. Wii Music is confirmed to be a failure by Nintendo themselves. The game got discontinued and not for a reason like Metroid Prime Trilogy (collector's item). Wii Music was discontinued because it was only damaging the console. SMG2 was supposed to take advantage of the NSMB Wii success. More 2D sections and the world map were put in to make those people who play 2D Mario play 3D Mario. It didn't work at all.
Between 1985 and 1990 Nintendo released four 2D Mario games. It didn't hurt the sales. In 1993 Nintendo released a compilation of the NES games (Super Mario All-Stars). It sold in excess of ten million copies. Yes, this is just as much as a new 3D Mario game can do. There is insane demand for 2D Mario and 2D platformers in general. Even though Super Mario Bros. and its sequels dominated the 8- and 16-bit eras, there were plenty of other platformers that put up good numbers as well. Like Sonic and Donkey Kong Country. Any concerns about oversaturation of 2D Mario or 2D platformers in general are unfounded.
3. No. The nature of arcade games is being easy to learn, hard to master, being fun to watch others play, highly addictive. That's what arcade games needed to be, because all the competing games were in the same room. People would choose to play something else quickly if a game didn't meet the basic criteria for an arcade game. The arcades may be dead, but their spirit is not. Wii Sports is the perfect example of a modern arcade game. There's still huge demand for games of this nature which is exactly why the Wii was such a huge success. Especially in the USA where it kept being sold out for more than two years.
4. Enough to know that M-rated games don't increase Nintendo's hardware sales. Having Eternal Darkness and the Resident Evil series didn't help the Gamecube. Nintendo isn't going to become the go-to platform for "mature" gaming, ever.
5. The exchange rate accounted for about 75 % of Nintendo's losses in the last fiscal quarter. Removing all factors that are out of Nintendo's control still means that Nintendo is posting a loss. That's a first in the company's history (which is over 110 years).
6. Your post isn't going unnoticed.
Malstrom isn't predicting Nintendo's doom because of his personal taste. Doom is the conclusion you arrive at after looking at Nintendo's entire video game history and taking their current plans into account.
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I know the history of Malstrom. I too once thought he was quite the prophet. I also thought he had some creditials at one time. However, I can no longer find them. And his latest essays sound more like a fanatic than a professional (at least in his language and tone, if not in his statements). There is an old saying that is used in some rural parts of the United States -- "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes." Maybe the contrary argument was Malstrom's "nut."
The loss was the first publicly reported by NIntendo ... but it has only reported for three decades, so we don't know what happened in the eight decades before that. It does point to R&D costs, launch costs, and changing market dynamics. But no one seems to be making as much noise over the fact that Sony was put on a negative market match. And the new stars of the mobile era are seeing lower profits (Zynga) or less than a minute of playtime per download for their one well-known game (Rovio -- 500M downloads and 300M minutes played daily of Angry Birds).
As for the game discussions, there are some valid points and some others to be proven. You are correct on Wii Music. However, how many other games in history have sold (nearly) 3M and are universally hailed as a failure. On 2D platformers, the sales of Rayman Origins will be quite instructive. Sold across all platforms, this game appears to be very NewSMB-like. If it sells well, then the genre needs more games. If it does not, than maybe it is just Mario magic. (It is not as if Kloona or Wario Shake or even Kirby Epic Yarn have sold numbers near SMG -- 2D/2.5D platfomers all that have been outshown by a 3D platformer).
Meanwhile, as for mature games, only Eternal Darkness and Geist were Nintendo published. The M-rated (ESRB)/15-rated (Euro ratings during that era) were generally third party affairs. As for Resident Evil, it is tough to know what kind of effect it would have had as the exclusive it was supposed to be as Capcom announced a PS2 port BEFORE the GC version went on sale. But it is safe to say that it is not a general strength associated with Nintendo gaming today -- even though it was in earlier generations (if only for the fact that during the NES/FC era, Nintendo was essentially the only game system with a large install base.)
However, the biggest problem is that you can't please everyone. So the question becomes who do you please. Over time, Nintendo has successfully zigged when others have zagged (motion control, dual screens -- technologies which led to new game play innovations which defined Nintendo during the last generation when it made record profits, which seems to me to go against Malstrom's argument of Nintendo unable to succeed by focusing on ways to play). It has also zopped on its face (staying with carts) on occasion. Technology itself is only as good as the software. That is really the point that is missing in all of this.
In closing, certainly NIntendo will be challenged to continue its past success in the future. For those who have not been following entertainment news -- that is the new reality in the world in which we live. Entertainment spending is down because there is more competition and because economic conditions have limited some individuals' ability to spend. And I may be wrong, but I place at least slightly more faith in those who guide the company than a blogger.
Mike from Morgantown