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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Malstrom: 'The Big Picture' problem underlying Nintendo's decline

oniyide said:
mike_intellivision said:
Some thoughts after reading the articles and the postings ...

1. What do we is Sean Malstrom's credentials? We know little about him, other than his writings. Was he really sage by predicting the Wii's success ... or did he just go against the grain and get lucky? We have -- myself included -- treated his work as if he were a prophet. But what do we really know about him. And if he were that good/well-respected, would he not be running a company or at least be an analyst rather than a WordPress blogger? In other words, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but why is his so special

2. Only on the Wii could games that sell 3M or 6M (Wii Music and SMG2) be thought of as failures. Now he makes a point that the 2D Marios sell better than the 3D ones. But if you released more, would it not decrease their special quality/uniqueness/value?

3. It is hard to be "arcade" games when they have all but ceased to exist (2D fighters and ski-ball not withstanding).

4. How many M-rated games has Nintendo released? It is less than a handful.

5. Nintendo has lost money -- but so have a lot of Japanese companies this year. The earthquake event and the world economy (including the yen's value) have meant red ink for a lot of firms. Sony, Panasonic, Honda, Toyota. Google up a prominent Japanese company and chances are they have lost money -- a lot of money -- this year.

6. I close with this because I know my remarks will be ignored. This is because everyone already has their mind made up. Malstrom thinks he knows all -- and knows what Nintendo should be doing. Those who defend him see things his way. Those who refute him are equally made up in their minds.
Personally, there have been some missteps by Nintendo. And there will be some in the future. But there are also will be successes. I play games for fun -- and Nintendo is fun, just as games on Sony and Microsoft platforms can be fun.

Remember, many people predict Nintendo's doom because of their own personal tastes/desires, not because of reality. And many people predict their success for the same reason.

Mike from Morgantown

That was great! i especially liked number 2. I never got how the Wii fans would consider those games flop, when even Ninty themselves have stated that a game that has not reached at least a million is a flop to them. By that logic 95% of the Wii library has flopped.


You people know very little. Malstrom did not get lucky as he gave a full explaination that was like 3 pages long on the site  called wiikly(Which sadly is a site that is no longer up) Malstrom says that the games that flop because they fail to be system sellers. Nintendo could make a great selling game easily but makinga system seller is hard. 3rd parites are supposed to make money not be system sellers which is why they are ignored? Any more questions?



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".. wtf.. what is this question!.. they have been doing something wrong forever! .. and not just this year.. according to haters shishh.. get with the program.."

You REALLY should actually read ALL he's written, as he's actually called on the haters from previously, for hating on Nintendo for stupid reasons.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

RolStoppable said:
mike_intellivision said:
Some thoughts after reading the articles and the postings ...

1. What do we is Sean Malstrom's credentials? We know little about him, other than his writings. Was he really sage by predicting the Wii's success ... or did he just go against the grain and get lucky? We have -- myself included -- treated his work as if he were a prophet. But what do we really know about him. And if he were that good/well-respected, would he not be running a company or at least be an analyst rather than a WordPress blogger? In other words, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but why is his so special

2. Only on the Wii could games that sell 3M or 6M (Wii Music and SMG2) be thought of as failures. Now he makes a point that the 2D Marios sell better than the 3D ones. But if you released more, would it not decrease their special quality/uniqueness/value?

3. It is hard to be "arcade" games when they have all but ceased to exist (2D fighters and ski-ball not withstanding).

4. How many M-rated games has Nintendo released? It is less than a handful.

5. Nintendo has lost money -- but so have a lot of Japanese companies this year. The earthquake event and the world economy (including the yen's value) have meant red ink for a lot of firms. Sony, Panasonic, Honda, Toyota. Google up a prominent Japanese company and chances are they have lost money -- a lot of money -- this year.

6. I close with this because I know my remarks will be ignored. This is because everyone already has their mind made up. Malstrom thinks he knows all -- and knows what Nintendo should be doing. Those who defend him see things his way. Those who refute him are equally made up in their minds.
Personally, there have been some missteps by Nintendo. And there will be some in the future. But there are also will be successes. I play games for fun -- and Nintendo is fun, just as games on Sony and Microsoft platforms can be fun.

Remember, many people predict Nintendo's doom because of their own personal tastes/desires, not because of reality. And many people predict their success for the same reason.

Mike from Morgantown

1. Sean Malstrom started out in May 2006, right after the E3 of that year. He posted about a dozen articles between then and the Wii's launch, laying out why the Wii would succeed and the PS3 would fail. He didn't just say that it will happen, he also got all the reasons right. That's the difference between a random guess and an actual prediction. Of course he couldn't predict that Nintendo themselves will turn against their most successful home console later on in the lifecycle, but that's excusable because the thought of it is ridiculous. A company going to kill their most successful product, that's just madness.

Malstrom also predicted the Wii's collapse. In early 2009 the Wii was still sold out, but he was convinced that it's going to come to an end pretty soon, because Wii Music didn't fit in line with what made Nintendo so successful in the first place. Malstrom is so special, because his track record is exceptional. Unfortunately, all of his articles from 2006-2009 are unavailable right now and he hasn't gotten around to upload them again.

The main reason why so many people are against him is the story of the Wii. At first he was talking very positively about it, because Nintendo did everything right. This made Nintendo fans follow him and fans of other consoles hate him. Since Nintendo changed its course, he is mostly talking negatively about them. This made most Nintendo fans turn against him.

2. Wii Music is confirmed to be a failure by Nintendo themselves. The game got discontinued and not for a reason like Metroid Prime Trilogy (collector's item). Wii Music was discontinued because it was only damaging the console. SMG2 was supposed to take advantage of the NSMB Wii success. More 2D sections and the world map were put in to make those people who play 2D Mario play 3D Mario. It didn't work at all.

Between 1985 and 1990 Nintendo released four 2D Mario games. It didn't hurt the sales. In 1993 Nintendo released a compilation of the NES games (Super Mario All-Stars). It sold in excess of ten million copies. Yes, this is just as much as a new 3D Mario game can do. There is insane demand for 2D Mario and 2D platformers in general. Even though Super Mario Bros. and its sequels dominated the 8- and 16-bit eras, there were plenty of other platformers that put up good numbers as well. Like Sonic and Donkey Kong Country. Any concerns about oversaturation of 2D Mario or 2D platformers in general are unfounded.

3. No. The nature of arcade games is being easy to learn, hard to master, being fun to watch others play, highly addictive. That's what arcade games needed to be, because all the competing games were in the same room. People would choose to play something else quickly if a game didn't meet the basic criteria for an arcade game. The arcades may be dead, but their spirit is not. Wii Sports is the perfect example of a modern arcade game. There's still huge demand for games of this nature which is exactly why the Wii was such a huge success. Especially in the USA where it kept being sold out for more than two years.

4. Enough to know that M-rated games don't increase Nintendo's hardware sales. Having Eternal Darkness and the Resident Evil series didn't help the Gamecube. Nintendo isn't going to become the go-to platform for "mature" gaming, ever.

5. The exchange rate accounted for about 75 % of Nintendo's losses in the last fiscal quarter. Removing all factors that are out of Nintendo's control still means that Nintendo is posting a loss. That's a first in the company's history (which is over 110 years).

6. Your post isn't going unnoticed.

Malstrom isn't predicting Nintendo's doom because of his personal taste. Doom is the conclusion you arrive at after looking at Nintendo's entire video game history and taking their current plans into account.


I know the history of Malstrom. I too once thought he was quite the prophet. I also thought he had some creditials at one time. However, I can no longer find them. And his latest essays sound more like a fanatic than a professional (at least in his language and tone, if not in his statements). There is an old saying that is used in some rural parts of the United States -- "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes."  Maybe the contrary argument was Malstrom's "nut." 

The loss was the first publicly reported by NIntendo ... but it has only reported for three decades, so we don't know what happened in the eight decades before that. It does point to R&D costs, launch costs, and changing market dynamics. But no one seems to be making as much noise over the fact that Sony was put on a negative market match.  And the new stars of the mobile era are seeing lower profits (Zynga) or less than a minute of playtime per download  for their one well-known game (Rovio -- 500M downloads and 300M minutes played daily of Angry Birds).

As for the game discussions, there are some valid points and some others to be proven. You are correct on Wii Music. However, how many other games in history have sold (nearly) 3M and are universally hailed as a failure. On 2D platformers, the sales of Rayman Origins will be quite instructive. Sold across all platforms, this game appears to be very NewSMB-like. If it sells well, then the genre needs more games. If it does not, than maybe it is just Mario magic. (It is not as if Kloona or Wario Shake or even Kirby Epic Yarn have sold numbers near SMG -- 2D/2.5D platfomers all that have been outshown by a 3D platformer).

Meanwhile, as for mature games, only Eternal Darkness and Geist were Nintendo published. The  M-rated (ESRB)/15-rated (Euro ratings during that era) were generally third party affairs. As for Resident Evil, it is tough to know what kind of effect it would have had as the exclusive it was supposed to be as Capcom announced a PS2 port BEFORE the GC version went on sale. But it is safe to say that it is not a general strength associated with Nintendo gaming today -- even though it was in earlier generations (if only for the fact that during the NES/FC era, Nintendo was essentially the only game system with a large install base.)

However, the biggest problem is that you can't please everyone. So the question becomes who do you please. Over time, Nintendo has successfully zigged when others have zagged (motion control, dual screens -- technologies which led to new game play innovations which defined Nintendo during the last generation when it made record profits, which seems to me to go against Malstrom's argument of Nintendo unable to succeed by focusing on ways to play).  It has also zopped on its face (staying with carts) on occasion. Technology itself is only as good as the software. That is really the point that is missing in all of this.

In closing, certainly NIntendo will be challenged to continue its past success in the future. For those who have not been following entertainment news -- that is the new reality in the world in which we live. Entertainment spending is down because there is more competition and because economic conditions have limited some individuals' ability to spend. And I may be wrong, but I place at least slightly more faith in those who guide the company than a blogger.

 

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

killeryoshis said:
oniyide said:
mike_intellivision said:
Some thoughts after reading the articles and the postings ...

1. What do we is Sean Malstrom's credentials? We know little about him, other than his writings. Was he really sage by predicting the Wii's success ... or did he just go against the grain and get lucky? We have -- myself included -- treated his work as if he were a prophet. But what do we really know about him. And if he were that good/well-respected, would he not be running a company or at least be an analyst rather than a WordPress blogger? In other words, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but why is his so special

2. Only on the Wii could games that sell 3M or 6M (Wii Music and SMG2) be thought of as failures. Now he makes a point that the 2D Marios sell better than the 3D ones. But if you released more, would it not decrease their special quality/uniqueness/value?

3. It is hard to be "arcade" games when they have all but ceased to exist (2D fighters and ski-ball not withstanding).

4. How many M-rated games has Nintendo released? It is less than a handful.

5. Nintendo has lost money -- but so have a lot of Japanese companies this year. The earthquake event and the world economy (including the yen's value) have meant red ink for a lot of firms. Sony, Panasonic, Honda, Toyota. Google up a prominent Japanese company and chances are they have lost money -- a lot of money -- this year.

6. I close with this because I know my remarks will be ignored. This is because everyone already has their mind made up. Malstrom thinks he knows all -- and knows what Nintendo should be doing. Those who defend him see things his way. Those who refute him are equally made up in their minds.
Personally, there have been some missteps by Nintendo. And there will be some in the future. But there are also will be successes. I play games for fun -- and Nintendo is fun, just as games on Sony and Microsoft platforms can be fun.

Remember, many people predict Nintendo's doom because of their own personal tastes/desires, not because of reality. And many people predict their success for the same reason.

Mike from Morgantown

That was great! i especially liked number 2. I never got how the Wii fans would consider those games flop, when even Ninty themselves have stated that a game that has not reached at least a million is a flop to them. By that logic 95% of the Wii library has flopped.


You people know very little. Malstrom did not get lucky as he gave a full explaination that was like 3 pages long on the site  called wiikly(Which sadly is a site that is no longer up) Malstrom says that the games that flop because they fail to be system sellers. Nintendo could make a great selling game easily but makinga system seller is hard. 3rd parites are supposed to make money not be system sellers which is why they are ignored? Any more questions?

By that logic, a good chunk of Ninty games were flops, Paper Mario, MP3, OtherM, S&P2, Mario Sports Mix, WarioLand Shake it, Both Kirbys. That is simply unrealistic to have every single game that Ninty makes be a system seller. Someone who like WiiSports might not give a crap about Metriod and vice versa. Im not buying it, there are more factors than if it moved consoles. Cost of production, ads, etc.



RolStoppable said:
oniyide said:
killeryoshis said:
oniyide said:

That was great! i especially liked number 2. I never got how the Wii fans would consider those games flop, when even Ninty themselves have stated that a game that has not reached at least a million is a flop to them. By that logic 95% of the Wii library has flopped.

You people know very little. Malstrom did not get lucky as he gave a full explaination that was like 3 pages long on the site  called wiikly(Which sadly is a site that is no longer up) Malstrom says that the games that flop because they fail to be system sellers. Nintendo could make a great selling game easily but makinga system seller is hard. 3rd parites are supposed to make money not be system sellers which is why they are ignored? Any more questions?

By that logic, a good chunk of Ninty games were flops, Paper Mario, MP3, OtherM, S&P2, Mario Sports Mix, WarioLand Shake it, Both Kirbys. That is simply unrealistic to have every single game that Ninty makes be a system seller. Someone who like WiiSports might not give a crap about Metriod and vice versa. Im not buying it, there are more factors than if it moved consoles. Cost of production, ads, etc.

Twisted logic leads to ridiculous results. In response to your first post in the stack above:

Not all games launch with the same expectations. Wii Music was positioned as the big holiday title of 2008 and got much exposure at E3 2008. This game wasn't supposed to only sell three million copies, but in excess of ten million. Regarding flops, Reggie said that a game doesn't need to sell a million copies on the Wii to make a profit like most games on the HD consoles need to do. A comment he made in response to why the Wii should be an attractive platform for third party games. This means Wii Music and Reggie's comment have no connection.

Second post of yours:

Can't really blame you for that, because killeryoshis' explanation lacks coherence.

see, that makes alot more sense than what the other guy said. I read a comment but Miyamoto? i believe and he was the one who said that whole if a game doesnt sell at least a mil its a flop for them. It was in regards to WarioShake at the time. Ill try to find it again.



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RolStoppable said:
oniyide said:

see, that makes alot more sense than what the other guy said. I read a comment but Miyamoto? i believe and he was the one who said that whole if a game doesnt sell at least a mil its a flop for them. It was in regards to WarioShake at the time. Ill try to find it again.

http://kotaku.com/5191706/update-how-many-copies-does-a-wii-game-need-to-sell-to-make-money

Here's the story I am talking about which is probably the same you are thinking about. Originally it was reported that Reggie meant the opposite and a lot of websites ran with it without using any common sense. Kotaku shows its anti-Wii bias, but they at least posted an update to the story which is more than others did.

that actually was not the article i was talking about, and to be honest, the update didnt really clear anything up. It sounds to me that REggie put his foot in his mouth. 

But its insane to think that a Wii game or any game has to sell a mil to profit. Okami did not have to sell as much as Red Steel 2 to profit



mike_intellivision said:
Some thoughts after reading the articles and the postings ...

1. What do we is Sean Malstrom's credentials? We know little about him, other than his writings. Was he really sage by predicting the Wii's success ... or did he just go against the grain and get lucky? We have -- myself included -- treated his work as if he were a prophet. But what do we really know about him. And if he were that good/well-respected, would he not be running a company or at least be an analyst rather than a WordPress blogger? In other words, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but why is his so special

2. Only on the Wii could games that sell 3M or 6M (Wii Music and SMG2) be thought of as failures. Now he makes a point that the 2D Marios sell better than the 3D ones. But if you released more, would it not decrease their special quality/uniqueness/value?

3. It is hard to be "arcade" games when they have all but ceased to exist (2D fighters and ski-ball not withstanding).

4. How many M-rated games has Nintendo released? It is less than a handful.

5. Nintendo has lost money -- but so have a lot of Japanese companies this year. The earthquake event and the world economy (including the yen's value) have meant red ink for a lot of firms. Sony, Panasonic, Honda, Toyota. Google up a prominent Japanese company and chances are they have lost money -- a lot of money -- this year.

6. I close with this because I know my remarks will be ignored. This is because everyone already has their mind made up. Malstrom thinks he knows all -- and knows what Nintendo should be doing. Those who defend him see things his way. Those who refute him are equally made up in their minds.
Personally, there have been some missteps by Nintendo. And there will be some in the future. But there are also will be successes. I play games for fun -- and Nintendo is fun, just as games on Sony and Microsoft platforms can be fun.

Remember, many people predict Nintendo's doom because of their own personal tastes/desires, not because of reality. And many people predict their success for the same reason.

Mike from Morgantown

1. Why else do you think this relatively unkown guy is so popular? Content, content, conent. It's all about what he writes, and what he writes is usually highly insightful and resonates with a lot of people, particularly those lapsed/oldschool gamers that the industry and gaming media seems to ignore these days. Do you really think anyone would give him a second look if this guy had dumb things to say? It's not just the fact that he predicted the Wii's success or is going against the grain (although that certainly adds to his appeal when 99% of the mainstream gaming media seems to spout of the exact same talking points). It's the fact that what he writes makes a scary amount of sense to a lot of people, myself included.

2. They are not failures in and of themselves, but when you compare them to the major hits on Wii, they were certainly dissapointments, and you can bet Nintendo feels this way as well. Mario Galaxy recieved all the marketing, all the hype, all the production quality, and is the mainline Mario game for Nintendo. Yet a 2D Mario game, based on 20 year old gameplay, has outsold it 3 to 1. That to me doesn't bode too well for Mario Galaxy.

3. That's precisely the problem. WHY have these type of games ceased to exist? There is clearly a huge market for them, as most of the Wii's hit games show. Yet the industry at large continues to ignore them.

4. Not sure what this has to do with anything...

5. I'm not sure I get the dislike this one blogger seems to get on this site, especially for someone who minds his own business and doesn't even make a profit. To me anyway, he's right on the money for most of his ramblings, and seems to get the market Nintendo is going for more than Nintendo themselves these days.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of these people proclaiming Nintendo's doom. I just feel they have lost touch with their roots, and the markets that made the NES/Wii/DS so successful in the first place. And if they continue to go this route, sales will continue to decline.



In reaction to my posts, I think Rol makes a good point about Nintendo needing to serve the underservered market.

My question though is whether or not there is a true market for 2D platformers or if it is just a specific market for Mario 2D platformers. Rayman Origins will provide a lot of those answers.

As for Metacube questioning why I mentioned M-rated games, my point was to counter those that said that Nintendo was going after the "mature" audience. Thus, I was showing how few M-rated games actually come from Nintendo, as opposed to third parties.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV