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Forums - Sales Discussion - Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

 

Will The 360 Be Able To Pull It Off?

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pezus said:
Seece said:
We're anticipating (the site) for 360 to outsell the PS3 by 200 - 400k weekly. 360 saw strong demand over BF but it won't drop like you're expecting it too, it'll keep the momentum going. You just like to ignore all the signs (and there are a lot of them ) you'll come around in the next 2 or so weeks don't worry.

 

Well, you also anticipated 360 to sell only a bit over 600k during BF week so we can't really trust ya, can we ?

He's just trying to be a little modest so the sales shock us more! ;)



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ironmanDX said:
pezus said:
Seece said:
We're anticipating (the site) for 360 to outsell the PS3 by 200 - 400k weekly. 360 saw strong demand over BF but it won't drop like you're expecting it too, it'll keep the momentum going. You just like to ignore all the signs (and there are a lot of them ) you'll come around in the next 2 or so weeks don't worry.

 

Well, you also anticipated 360 to sell only a bit over 600k during BF week so we can't really trust ya, can we ?

He's just trying to be a little modest so the sales shock us more! ;)

I dunno where people get the idea I source the data myself lol, Prelim data /= my own opinion!



 

2 things, which I am sure have already been covered in this thread.

1 - Black Friday week looks like the Xbox 360 will erase a good 500k or more from the lead in just that one week by itself. Makes it a lot more possible then for the remaining weeks to make up the deficit.

2 - We don't know for sure, or at least I have not seen it specified anywhere, whether MS meant the calendar year or their fiscal year. If they have until next June when their fiscal year ends, I am sure they will accomplish this feat with ease as they are in prime position for major price cutting ventures (Have been for over a year now, it's amazing they haven't cut the price in 3 years. They have to be making gargantuan profit margins on all SKUs).



nightsurge said:
2 things, which I am sure have already been covered in this thread.

1 - Black Friday week looks like the Xbox 360 will erase a good 500k or more from the lead in just that one week by itself. Makes it a lot more possible then for the remaining weeks to make up the deficit.

2 - We don't know for sure, or at least I have not seen it specified anywhere, whether MS meant the calendar year or their fiscal year. If they have until next June when their fiscal year ends, I am sure they will accomplish this feat with ease as they are in prime position for major price cutting ventures (Have been for over a year now, it's amazing they haven't cut the price in 3 years. They have to be making gargantuan profit margins on all SKUs).

@ #2

It's been mentioned in this thread, as well as others, several times that MS meant the calender year 2011.

@ Seece

Not ignoring anything.  Of course, the 360 is going to continue selling well throughout Dec, but you act as if there will be little to no drop in the next few weeks after one of the biggest shopping days in America.  There is going to be a drop in next week's numbers, quite a large one.  Then it will slowly begin to rise until about 2 weeks before Christmas, where it will shoot up to numbers similar to Black Friday week.  On those weeks I can see it pulling in over 200K more than the PS3, but not all of them.  Then again, because of Black Friday deals starting on Thursday night, instead of early Friday morning, you had a lot more people participating in Black Friday this year.  This may drop the numbers for those last two weeks slightly.  Then the PS3 will start to see larger gains across EMEAA and Japan.  So yea, this definitely got much more interesting. 

There is also the point of adjustments that will come in Jan/Feb '12 when the big 3 release shipment data.  Of course, I will be updating the OP with the numbers we have when we get them, but I will probably revisit this thread when all adjustments are made (probably sometime in Feb).

Oh, and kinda off topic, do you know if we will be getting the yearly charts back?



Seece said:
Michael-5 said:
287k lead over next 5 weeks?

Maybe next week 360 can pull that off, but for 5 weeks, no.

I think I will be right overall though. PS3 will win 2011, but by less then 1 million, maybe even just 500k.

360 should close the gap to 1 mill this week, so 200k over the next 5 weeks. Which isn't remotely difficult with the momentum it has. Black Friday week sales are never above Christmas week sales for any system, 360 will do 1.2/1.3M this week WW, so is a shoe in for 1.5M xmas week.

How do you even check yearly sales? This new VGC update has really downgraded some of the features we once had....

Doing some math, the difference at the start of the year was 3.85, now it's 2.6. So PS3 is 1.25million ahead of 360 YoY. 360 should get that difference to under 1 million, and with a few strong weeks before christmas, I think 500k is possible.

Oh yea, wow 360 did break 1 million this week. When I read it did 950k, I forgot that's just for Americas. 1.2-1.3 million is pushing it, but 1.1-1.2 for sure. Curious to see how well PS3 did.



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Oh oh!!! Battle on

thismeintiel - has a picture of some fat guy with his moth open
Seece - has a picture of some guy....

FIGHT!



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Tell you what, if the 360 can cut that lead down it really will be amazing.



                            

thismeintiel said:
nightsurge said:
2 things, which I am sure have already been covered in this thread.

1 - Black Friday week looks like the Xbox 360 will erase a good 500k or more from the lead in just that one week by itself. Makes it a lot more possible then for the remaining weeks to make up the deficit.

2 - We don't know for sure, or at least I have not seen it specified anywhere, whether MS meant the calendar year or their fiscal year. If they have until next June when their fiscal year ends, I am sure they will accomplish this feat with ease as they are in prime position for major price cutting ventures (Have been for over a year now, it's amazing they haven't cut the price in 3 years. They have to be making gargantuan profit margins on all SKUs).

@ #2

It's been mentioned in this thread, as well as others, several times that MS meant the calender year 2011.

Link please? I want to know where Microsoft clarified this, not where forum posters have thought it was calendar year.

Either way, after the Black Friday sales week that lead will be much lower, so I think it is still possible. The Xbox has done it before in Holiday 2008, where it went from being DOWN by 1 million to UP by over 1 million so basically a 2 million shift in just a few short months. 



Michael-5 said:
Seece said:
Michael-5 said:
287k lead over next 5 weeks?

Maybe next week 360 can pull that off, but for 5 weeks, no.

I think I will be right overall though. PS3 will win 2011, but by less then 1 million, maybe even just 500k.

360 should close the gap to 1 mill this week, so 200k over the next 5 weeks. Which isn't remotely difficult with the momentum it has. Black Friday week sales are never above Christmas week sales for any system, 360 will do 1.2/1.3M this week WW, so is a shoe in for 1.5M xmas week.

How do you even check yearly sales? This new VGC update has really downgraded some of the features we once had....

Doing some math, the difference at the start of the year was 3.85, now it's 2.6. So PS3 is 1.25million ahead of 360 YoY. 360 should get that difference to under 1 million, and with a few strong weeks before christmas, I think 500k is possible.

Oh yea, wow 360 did break 1 million this week. When I read it did 950k, I forgot that's just for Americas. 1.2-1.3 million is pushing it, but 1.1-1.2 for sure. Curious to see how well PS3 did.

Actually that 960k for BF week was just for the USA only. It does not include any other countries in the Americas (Canada, etc.).

http://majornelson.com/2011/11/29/xbox-360-records-the-biggest-week-in-xbox-history/

Sales highlights in the U.S. during the week of Black Friday include:

  • Xbox 360 sold more than 960,000 consoles in the U.S. alone, of which more than 800,000 were sold within a period of 24 hours – the biggest week of sales in Xbox history. (Source: Internal data)



starcraft: "I and every PS3 fanboy alive are waiting for Versus more than FFXIII.
Me since the games were revealed, the fanboys since E3."

Skeeuk: "playstation 3 is the ultimate in gaming acceleration"

Xbox 360 will probably outsell the PS3 by 350K-400K in the U.S for BF week. Worldwide may be a little less. The XBox 360 seems to sell a lot better in EMEA during the holidays. Japan isn't really factored in much. It's not completely impossible that the 360 catch the PS3 for 2011. It'll really depend on how it sells the 2 weeks after BF.



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