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Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2011 - End Results

I've updated the table. Added non-gravity's numbers and Mr. Average. I have not used the dummy numbers to calculate this average.
I'm wondering what's keeping skeezer's early numbers.


Upcoming Events:

-VGChartz' adjustments in reaction to the latest monthly NPD report. Probably with this week's numbers.

-Microsoft Fiscal Year 2012 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call - October 20, 2011; 2:30 PM - PT

-Nintendo Second Quarter Earnings Release - October 27. Nintendo may show us European sales for all platforms again.

-The Sony Q2 FY2011 Earnings will be released on November 2, 2011, missing the deadline.



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You do seem to be predicting a poorer Christmas season than me non-gravity. About 1k less for each home console and 2k less for the 3DS (I decided after looking at the 3DS lineup that it will probably begin it's "DSlite-like" sales this Christmas_



Can i join? i don't know what to do so someone will have to explain it for me. Thank you



Was hoping we would get all 3 shipment numbers this time...

Damnit.

@NobleTeam360

You basically predict what you think the sales will be for the consoles on the specific Weeks.



                            

TWRoO said:
You do seem to be predicting a poorer Christmas season than me non-gravity. About 1k less for each home console and 2k less for the 3DS (I decided after looking at the 3DS lineup that it will probably begin it's "DSlite-like" sales this Christmas_

I've not taken enough time with these, so I'll flesh them out later. I looked at the NPD numbers and figured that all home consoles are probably undertracked a little in Europe as well, while 3DS is overtracked in Europe by a lot (which this week's numbers may show). Even taking that the Wii is still doing abysmal numbers and it's hard to predict how it's going back to great numbers. But yea my total home console numbers are probably off by a total of 2-4 million. 

I'm not quite sure 3DS is going to explode like DS and Wii this holiday per se. I see it becoming 'the' console only after this holiday.



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NobleTeam360 said:
Can i join? i don't know what to do so someone will have to explain it for me. Thank you

Anyone can join.

You basically have to fill out a table like this or an other format that I can read with the weekly sales numbers for the 4 platforms. You can use the information I've added to the first 2 posts of the thread or any other information on VGChartz are anywhere else. I suggest reading the first 2 posts of the thread first. 

You can make changes to your predictions till 30 October.


Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Total
Wii 155 175 215 340 705 725 815 1,010 1,370 690 6,200
PS3 235 265 335 360 730 750 855 1,080 1,370 720 6,700
X360 185 215 360 380 760 740 830 980 1,200 650 6,300
3DS 285 355 390 470 940 910 1,000 1,250 1,750 850 8,200



If it's any help to anyone, buyers intent in the US for consoles among adults is 23% this year, down 2% over last year.

Also folk should take into consideration, according to our numbers, Wii has sold a vast amount more than they have shipped this year, meaning that a lot of stock in Q4 didn't sell (overshipping?) (or we're overtracked) either way it doesn't paint a pretty picture for the wii, either it did considerably less last holiday than their shipments lead to believe, or sales this year really have fallen off a cliff.

In fact we only have Wii sales for Q4 last year 1.7 in Wii's favour against the 360 despite the 2.5M gap in shipments.



 

Once EMEAA numbers are in I plan to showcase the adjustments VGChartz have made to the numbers of the week ending 8th October and the Q1-Q3 numbers (containing September).



Here's a table showing the adjustments made to the numbers for the week ending 8 October and the Quarter 1 through 3 numbers. As far as I can see the Wii received no or tiny adjustments,the X360 has only seen adjustments for September and beyond based on NPD numbers. PS3 looks to have been adjusted for it's post-price cut numbers. 3DS has been been taken down 500k lifetime numbers, while DS has subsequently risen by 400k. For last week's numbers PS3 is up ~10k and ~20k in Americas and EMEAA, while 3DS is down ~20k and ~25k in Americas and EMEAA.

btw I've taken Media Create numbers to complete 15 October numbers.



Thanks non-gravity. i don't tend to follow the numbers much anymore so that's useful.