| Metallicube said: Love the logic.. Wii won't reach 105 million despite only being 18 million away from that mark (and still selling almost as much as the PS3).. Yet the PS3 will reach it, which is over 50 million away from that mark. So you're basically saying that PS3's sales n in its later years will match, if not exceed the sales sold in its first 5 years? This goes against EVERYTHING we know about sales trends of consoles, especially those that haven't seen much success, like the PS3. Remember, a console generally sells the majority of its units in its first 3-4 years. What games are coming out that will push this extra 50 million for PS3? Consider all the games over that massive 5 year span that have pushed the first 50 million.. For PS3 to keep pace, it will need just as many strong selling games like those, if not more, since the console is getting older. I will never understand why everybody believes PS3 to be this ageless console that will keep constantly selling. Why is this? They never say... Is it because of its horsepower? History should tell you by now that horsepower has NOTHING to do with a consoles success or longevity. Is it the greater room for further pricedrops? Pricedrops have NEVER given longterm momemtum to console sales, only short spikes in sales. Without the games to back it up, there is no point to a pricedrop. PS3 needs GAMES to push that second 50 million, and unlike the first 5 years, it now has to work against the natural decline in sales from the aging of the console. So what are all these games that are going to carry PS3 for another 50 million units? Also, to push this many units further, PS3 will need to last another 5 years if not longer, which is a tall order for a low selling console. Hell, it was a tall order even for the PS2, which is the most successful console of all time. There is nothing to indicate that the PS3 will last another 2 years, let alone another 5-6... |
Sorry for the delay in a reply, I've only been on the site on my phone since I posted that and couldn't really give you a good reply, so I waited until I was on the laptop.
Anyway. You seem to have misread my post. I never said it will actually happen. I said there was a chance it COULD happen. I'll show you how it could happen. Right now.
The way it can reach the Wii? Well... As I've said, for it to happen the Wii will have to drop to a snail's pace next Year after Wii U launch or be discontinued completely. The DS has seen a mammoth YoY decline since the 3DS launched, so I think it's safe to assume the Wii (A much less popular piece of HW) will perform similar or worse.
Nintendo expect 12 Million Wii's for this FY (13M originally), which would put the Wii total at 98 Million in March. Considering how the pricecut has gone so far for Wii, it's possible they could expect even lower than 12 Million for the FY, after all, last Years expectations dropped from an original 18 Million to a revised 16 Million (It actually did 15 Million). I also think it's safe to assume with the obvious drop in sales next Year, they could expect anything from 6 Million or lower next FY. We'll give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt and say the Wii sells 12 Million for the FY anyway.
March 2011 - 86 Million
March 2012 - 98 Million
March 2013 - 104 Million (Wii U release)
March 2014 onwards - 105 to 110 Million (Wii fading out/discontinued)
Now, I seriously don't see any reason at all for Nintendo to keep the Wii on the market 2 Years after the Wii U has released, so I was fair enough to give it a few Million added on, just incase.
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Now for Sony. For them to reach the Wii total, they need everything to go right for them. They need Wii to slow down hugely. They need 3rd parties to stay happy with the HW they're working with. They need Microsoft to stay at it for the long run with the 360 so the PS3 can keep getting the 3rd party multiplat games. They need to handle the PS3's price right and they need the PS2 owners in emerging markets to upgrade to PS3.
There is no indication at all that Sony are gearing up for a PS4 release any time soon, and Microsoft are selling tons of pretty much everything with Billions in profit coming at the same time. Both companies want to stay with current consoles for the time being, this much is obvious. With the Wii U not being a major, major upgrade on the current HD consoles, 3rd parties will still be happy to port games to and from PS360/Wii U.
You also ask me where these big games will come from. Well... This Year alone we're still waiting on Modern Warfare 3, Uncharted 3, FIFA 12, Final Fantasy XIII-2, Arkham City, Tales of Xillia, Battlefield 3, Assassin's Creed Revelations, Resistance 3, Skyrim... All big games. I'm pretty sure I'm missing out a fair few also. Next Year already has Mass Effect 3, Metal Gear Rising, BioShock Infinite, Soul Calibur 5, Tomb Raider, Hitman Absolution. GTA5, Versus XIII, God of War 4 and even Agent(lol) are rumored for 2012 too. Add in your CoD, FIFA, Etc.
Anywaaaaaaaaaaay, I did a Yearly sales thing for the Wii, so I'll try put one together for the PS3. It's gonna be harder to do but oh well. I'll try. Just a reminder that I'm NOT saying this WILL happen, but it's possible for it to. I don't think it will.
March 2011 - 50 Million
March 2012 - 65 Million ($250)
March 2013 - 79 Million (PS3 colours line finally introduced, small $20/$30 cut like PS2 saw in later life, Wii U Release WW)
March 2014 - 93 Million ( PS3 finally reaches the magic sub-$200 mark, but sales continue to slow due to PS3 being old. PS4/Nextbox revealed at E3)
March 2015 - 100 Million (PS4/Nextbox WW release)
March 2016 onwards - ~105 Million (New markets help the PS3 until it's discontinued.)
As I said, I'm not saying that WILL happen, but I think you should see where I'm coming from. It's not probable at all, but it's possible... If only ever so slightly. Things need to go 100% in Sony's way. They're 99% not gonna, but that 1% chance is always there.
That was a long post.
